It’s not often that I make predictions, but this weekend I had a feeling the Pats would beat the Lions pretty easily. I didn’t think it would quite be the domination that it was, but it seemed clear he Lions didn’t really want to win the game that bad – they packed it in early.
After the Jets game in Week 7, the Pats had lost Chandler Jones and were facing a gauntlet of legit quarterbacks. But the Patriots haven’t blinked. They’ve gone 4-0 since then and been dominant in all three phases of the game.
Only their playoff finish will determine how the 2014 Patriots stack up compared to previous teams, but right now this looks like the most balanced Patriots team we’ve seen since Bill Belichick took over, capable of breaking a game on any side of the ball.
Early in the 2000s the Pats were loaded on defense and had an offense that wasn’t exactly explosive, but made all the clutch plays. The script slowly flipped as the defensive core got old and departed, while Brady and offense hit a historic level of explosiveness, then efficiency and pace.
They met in the middle in 2007, where the offense’s prolific scoring hid the quickly declining defense. In 2010, the defense hit a low point with a dearth of talent giving up tons of yards. Since then the defense has been on a slow track of marginal improvement, but now in 2014, the defense is back to the levels we saw in the early-2000’s.
And I must mention special teams, as they’ve been solid throughout Belichick’s coaching reign, but they’ve seemed to hit a new level this year. It was on display yesterday after a big punt by Ryan Allen and big return from Danny Amendola jump started an offense that started the game with two three-and-outs.
Right now it seems like the only thing standing between the Patriots and Glendale in February will be injuries. If they stay healthy and keep homefield advantage for the playoffs, they’ll be extremely tough to knock off. The Broncos might be the only team who could have a chance in the AFC, and that would depend on non-January-like conditions in Foxboro on gameday.
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Pats Posits
We can talk all about the superlative play of the secondary yesterday, but the tangible effect has been on third down. This is an area I’ve talked about ad nauseum the last five years. The Pats third-down defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL over the time, but over the last three games they’re the third-best third down defense in the NFL.
For the season they’re now 13th overall, they’re highest ranking since 2009.
In recent years, the Pats would have occasional good games on third down, but never did they have the kind of consistency we’ve seen the last month or so.
Yesterday’s game was a head-nodder for me because a lot of things I’ve been waiting for finally happened. Tim Wright became more involved. Danny Amendola showed up again. The team is rounding out and getting contributions all over the place.
It’s nothing short of amazing how much better the Patriots run defense has been compared to earlier in the season. They’re not just good against the run right now, they’re dominant.
In the last three games, they’re giving up an NFL-best 51.0 yards-per-game. Jamie Collins and Akeem Ayers are two guys who are expectedly doing a great job. I expect Ninkovich/Wilfork/Hightower to be good and they’ve been great.
I’m getting 2007 flashbacks a bit for the first time since then, where I just hope the team can still play this well in January and February. We’re used to the Patriots looking good this time of year, but in most years since 2007 there’s always been a weakness that they’ve been able to cover up – an Achilles Heel that we knew could come back to bite them against the good teams.
Not this year. I don’t t know what the weakness of this Patriots team is right now. Before the bye I might’ve questioned their run defense, if their offensive line could get it done against good interior rushers and their ability to win when Gronk and/or Edelman were taken away.
I don’t question either of those things anymore. We’ll see if the Packers can expose something.
I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it – Where have you been the last five years, Brandon LaFell?
Games like yesterday’s were what I was looking forward to when the Patriots signed Revis. It’s been so long since we’ve had a playmaker like him in the secondary. And he makes it look so easy. I really hope this isn’t the only year we get to cheer him on. This offseason will be intense.
It’s somewhat cathartic to see Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung being key players on this defense after they were such whipping boys for the 2010/2011 defensive problems.
It once again goes to experience, one of the most underrated aspects of team-building that gets no credit in the offseason.
Now we turn the page to what will be hyped as a Super Bowl preview. Win or lose the next two weeks will be good Super Bowl prep for the Pats. They’ll have two tough road games, but they’ll also be on the road the entire time for both (they’re heading straight out west after Green Bay).
That kind of experience is a good chance for the team to bond a bit before the stretch run and should get them ready to play in hostile environments against good teams.