I continue to try and wrap my head around this season, as it’s a script we haven’t seen before. Usually a Patriots season goes one of two ways – they lose a couple games along the way but figure it all out by January for a Super Bowl run, or injuries decimate their chances and they either just miss the playoffs or get beat by a more healthy team. Usually one of these or a combination of sorts.
This year however they raced out to a 10-0 start, losing significant players nearly every week in October and November. Now, they have a one game lead for the top AFC seed, but it’s up to a cast of fill-ins to get them to the playoffs at which time they’re expected to suddenly be back at (almost) full health.
I guess we have to call it the year of non-season-ending injuries.
But as I touched upon in Monday’s Posits, Dion Lewis still truly hurts and the Pats overall lack of a run game since he went down could ultimately be their undoing.
Simply put, they aren’t winning on first and second down with the ground game and the result is more and more third and longs. In eight games with Lewis, the Pats had 35 3rd downs that were eight yards or longer. In just three games since he went down they’ve had 18. Their yards-per-rushing-attempt on first and second down have dropped from 4.07 to 3.13.
Now the running game’s importance can be minimized to a degree, but as we saw last night, it certainly hurts when you can’t run the clock out. Again, I think they should consider a street free agent who gets out of the backfield quickly, unlike Blount who takes time to build momentum and speed.
But if Gronk/Edelman/Amendola are back for the playoffs and the offensive line settles into a rhythm, they’ll be so much better than what we’re seeing on the field now.
Defense
Still so annoyed with the defense not putting the clamps down against Brock Osweiler at the end of the game. Just when I was reaching a comfort zone with the defense they give up 17 points in the fourth quarter and then, the cherry on top, giving up a 48-yard rushing walkoff TD on a 3rd-and-1 when a stop would’ve given Brady another shot at the win.
Maybe if this was 2010 or 2011 we’d just chalk it up to the fact that there was no talent on our defense. They couldn’t get by without turnovers, but this defense’s only excuse is that Dont’a Hightower went out in the second quarter.
I know the run defense suffered without him, but they still forced four three-and-outs in the second half.
Once they started having success with the run they started having big play success. The 36-yard pass to Demaryius Thomas and the 39 yarder to Emmanuel Sanders on the Broncos final drive of regulation to take the lead were killers and set back all the good work they did against the pass all game until that point.
The Patriots had this game and let it get away despite everything, which is why they’ll be in the mix down to the end for the Super Bowl. Once again all that really mattered was which team made the final play. That’s pretty much always what it comes down to and regardless of everything else, this year will be no different.
