The bye week is often a time to reflect on the first chunk of the games a team played and to look forward to what is to come. I’ve been thinking a lot about the scope of the league and how the Pats will fare come playoff time. It has seemed for a while now that the regular season is just one big warm up for the real show in Foxboro, the playoffs. So let’s dive in, shall we?
Here’s everything you need to know about the best of the best of the AFC aka, “The Teams Just Trying to Keep Up.”
This is where the AFC stands as of today in terms of playoff seeding
Credit to CBSSports
The Patriots are at the top of the conference at 7-1, followed closely by the Raiders, only 1 game back. The Steelers being behind the Texans is a little shocking, and you’d think you could pin that on Ben Roethlisberger being out injured, but he was only out a game against the Patriots, a contest Pittsburgh was hardly guaranteed to win with Roethlisberger. Clearly, the best QB of these six teams belongs to Pats Nation followed by a (when healthy) Roethlisberger, and then Oakland with Derek Carr. The other three are serviceable QBs ranging from inconsistent to above average. Looking beyond these 6 teams, the only other teams with at least 4 wins are the Bills, which received a thrashing from TFB last week, and the Tennessee Titans who still feel one season away before being competitive with the top of the AFC.
All these teams have their strengths, and how exciting that the Raiders are relevant in the NFL again, but now let’s look at how they might match up with the Patriots.
OAKLAND RAIDERS:
-Derek Carr has elevated his play to another level this season and proved to the rest of the league what Oakland saw in him. He’s averaging 2+ TDs per game and is on pace to throw for 4,642 yards this season. That would be a higher total than Brady himself in 4 of his last 7 full seasons.
–Amari Cooper has proved himself worthy of being feared. His freak athleticism has married his route running and pass catching. Michael Crabtree has been a staple of the Raider offense since he switched Bay Area teams, and Andre Holmes has stepped up enough as a role player to make the plays when Cooper is double covered.
-The Raiders are a young, hungry team. The average age of the team is 26.02 which is good enough for 13th youngest in the league. The franchise is starved for success and with a strong young QB, the playoffs are in sight for Oakland (possibly for the last time considering the prospects of their move to Las Vegas).
-Their leadership and top tier talent is extremely young with the average age of their starting QB, stud WR and awesome DE sitting at 24 years. This may be the first place you can exploit them.
-They’re currently ranked 28th in Defense DVOA, 25th versus both the pass and rush. A strong offensive gameplay by NE could simply overpower the Raiders defense with not quite enough talent to keep up.
HOUSTON TEXANS:
-The Texans have ben floundering as of late, resting a big chunk of their success this season squarely on the shoulders of one Brock Osweiler. He looked like he was going to be a solid player for the franchise and finally provide some stability for them at the position. If Osweiler doesn’t pick up his big boy pants and play ball, he might just be traded to a QB starved team and disappear off the face of the NFL (“Welcome to the #DawgPound Brock!”)
-Houston lost their best player in JJ Watt. Watt has been arguably the best defensive player in the league for the last 3 years or so and it makes things far more difficult for DC Romeo Crennel.
–Lamar Miller has been playing well for the Texans as of late. After a bit of a slow start, Miller had his best game of the year versus the Colts (I almost feel bad for them they’re so poor) with 149 yards on 24 carries.
-Other than that, the Texans are at the bottom of the league in DVOA offense and unless they get it together, things would get ugly against the Patriot.
-The Texans struggle to stop the run, ranking 26th according to Football Outsiders. If Blount gets rolling it could get ugly versus Houston.
-The Texans may be the #3 seed at this point in the season, but that only speaks to the mediocrity of the league which is a whole other issue. They wouldn’t keep me up too late at night. Unfortunately, Bill O’Brien, former Belichick disciple could be let go if there isn’t an improvement. The Osweiler acquisition might give him time, but coaches are on a short leash lately. The good news would be that New England could replace a departing OC (you’d have to be delusional to think McDaniels doesn’t get a great head coaching offer this offseason) with a former OC again. This is McDaniels’ second stint with the team and he had a pretty good homecoming. I wouldn’t mind seeing O’Brien back on the sideline.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
-This is one of the teams that gives me the most pause. Roethlisberger is a great QB despite people’s protests and is never to be counted out.
-Pittsburgh’s offense has two of the best skill position players around the league in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Bell had September off, like Brady, and could only be fresher for it. The top tier talent on the offense is concerning at best and borderline impossible at worst.
-Long gone are the days of yesteryear when Pittsburgh had a formidable defense that would pummel you into submission with their physicality and you could only hope to keep up. Now the Steelers are very reliant on their offense. The Steelers have the ability to score quickly with Antonio Brown, and then grind the clock with Le’Veon Bell.
-The receiving options beyond Brown are suspect. Sammie Coates is a player who can catch the deep bombs but not an impossible feat to stop him. If NE can smartly cover Brown, keep Bell in check and tackle him (it’d be hard to tackle Bell any worse than the last time they met), the Steelers become a very beatable opponent.
DENVER BRONCOS:
-The reigning Super Bowl champs are not the team they were last year but don’t get it twisted; their defense is still legit. Demarcus Ware returning mid season should only help the already worthy defense.
-The Broncos QB situation, while not ideal, has turned out better than we all thought. Trevor Siemian has not been overwhelmingly great, but as Belichick might say, he makes enough plays to win.
-Siemian has done his most damage in the 4th quarter, when it matters most, with a 102.8 passer rating as opposed to his 79.6 rating in the first 3 quarters. He is not above mistakes evidenced by 4 INTs in 7 games
-The loss of CJ Anderson hurts. He’s a good bowling ball for them at RB and is one of the dreaded Patriot Killers. He’s 21-147-2 against New England with a 7 yard average.
-Rookie RB Devontae Booker has some decent stats with a 4.3 average on 70 carries and 2 TDs but 2 fumbles to match are worrisome for Denver.
-If the game becomes a shootout, that type of game clearly favors NE. If it’s a ground it out type of game, the Broncos would have the upper hand. Even worse, if Blount struggles to roll in a game like that, stick a fork in the Patriots. If it’s not a shootout and Blount isn’t effective, it becomes a very hard game to win.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:
-The Chiefs finally put Jamal Charles, their All-Pro RB back beleaguered by injuries all season, on IR. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West have proven themselves worthy replacements, but no doubt Charles will be missed
–Alex Smith has been a good QB for Andy Reid and the Chiefs but he is not impossible to defeat. He is a smart player, able to use his legs and athleticism to pick up first downs if there’s no spy. He will be a QB the Patriots have to decide how to attack. If you spy him with a LB or S then you lose some help in coverage.
-That being said, no one is worried about the Chiefs WR unit. Beyond Jeremy Maclin, they have to be the most anonymous position group in the NFL. I don’t see those receivers winning one on one matches versus Malcolm Butler or Logan Ryan. Maybe Eric Rowe and Cyrus Jones might give up a few but I don’t see them making enough plays to win on offense.
–Tamba Hali has some suspect stats for this first half of the season. He’s a great player for them but if he can be contained, that defense can be as well. Look for NE to play smart with keeping tabs on him all game.
Overall, these teams are not worrisome to me. The Steelers and Broncos could make for great games but right now, I don’t realistically see any of them taking out New England. If the Pats can keep up their play to this high above the competition, I have a good feeling about their chances to make the Super Bowl this year.