This weekend will hopefully be the last time of the 2016 season that we see a quarterback not named Tom Brady under center for the Patriots. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett have shown plenty of promise in limited action and it’s whipped Patriots nation into an early frenzy — “who gets traded and for how many first round draft picks?!”
Garoppolo has apprenticed for two full seasons under Brady, and against the Dolphins, Garoppolo took his game to a new level, looking calm and collected in the pocket, delivering laser passes with pinpoint accuracy. There’s still some unknowns with Garoppolo, like how he does against a blitz-happy, disguise-based defense like Rex Ryan’s, but it’s clear that Garoppolo has what it takes to at least get a shot as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Now the discussion of Brady’s inevitable exit have begun. The Patriots still have Brady under contract through 2019. Garoppolo is signed through the 2017 season, meaning this coming offseason is the last chance the Pats could have to move him for more than a potential 3rd round compensatory pick. Now the Patriots could also franchise tag Garoppolo in the spring of 2018 as they did with Matt Cassel and then move him for significant capital, but they’ll certainly be tempted by a number of offers in the spring of 2017.
Quarterback is the most valuable position in football and it’s the hardest one to find. Now the Patriots apparently have this bird in hand, moving him for two in the bush is a risky proposition for the long term health of the franchise. That’s why I believe the Patriots should not move Garoppolo this offseason and let the next season-and-three-quarters play out before deciding how to proceed into 2018 and beyond.
Yes, first round draft picks are always tempting and many Patriots fans are salivating thinking about what haul Garoppolo might bring. Plus Brissett has looked fine, he could probably step into the backup spot in 2017 and who knows, maybe he could succeed Brady? His contract situation, signed through 2019, mirrors Brady’s. That makes things nice and clean.
But we all know how hit-or-miss the draft can be. While Belichick is almost always dead-on with first rounders, what are the chances he can get a player equal to the value of a starting quarterback? Many franchises have struggled for decades to find a quarterback and the Patriots know they already have an intriguing option ready to go if Brady falls off for any reason. And we’ve seen countless times how injuries can put a quick unexpected end to a career.
We still don’t know just how good Garoppolo really can be, but we’ve seen enough to know he can win games for the Patriots when his number is called. That value exceeds almost any single potential player they might draft.
Draft picks are nice, but players you can win with are better, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. The Patriots should be in no rush to move Garoppolo after this season, even if a huge haul of picks is dangled in front of them. Let things with Brady play out, give Brissett another year to develop and then make the decision on Garoppolo in the spring of 2018.
He’s the ultimate insurance policy at the most critical position. That’s worth more than any unknown first round draft pick. Or even two.
Belichick always says you make a decision when you have to or when it benefits you most. I can see Belichick doing just what you are saying unless they get overwhelmed.
I just think this is an entirely unique situation, given the importance of the position and Brady’s age. I mean is two first rounders worth it? Probably. But how many teams have wasted multiple first round picks looking for their next quarterback? Often first overall picks. Will be fascinating to watch unfold but I think they should resist the urge this offseason no matter the offer. Draft picks are capital, but what a team needs more than anything else is a quarterback. You can’t let one get away just because you might be able to draft two first rounders who may or may not pan out, and may not even be quarterbacks.
I fully agree with you. A franchise quarterback is something more valuable than a (or 2) first rounder(s). We’ve seen more than a dozen first-round quarterbacks fail in just the past 10 years: RGIII, Ponder, EJ Manuel, Young, Russell, Locker, Gabbert, and many more. And even look at our first-rounders the past few years: Did we really need Dominique Easley for the Superbowl run in that year? Not at all. Do we need Cyrus Jones (granted a 2nd rounder but our first pick) this year for a championshp? Not really.
A great quarterback and a great coaching staff almost automatically make you competitive every single year. Look at our team the past 15 years, look at Peyton’s teams, Rodgers’ Packers, etc. Keep Jimmy and with BB the Patriots have a terrific shot at remaining competitive for another decade.