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Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

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Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

  • Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
  • Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
  • Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
  • Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
  • Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
  • Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
  • Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

Bend

  • Yards-per-Drive: 14th
  • Plays-per-Drive: 12th

Break

  • Points-per-Drive: 22nd
  • Turnovers-per-Drive: 7th

Usually, things look bad under bend but good under break. Now the only thing standing out is points per drive, where it’s the first time under Belichick they’ve been over two points-per-drive. Why? Well, as I wrote about yesterday, I think a great deal of the defense’s bad stats right now are due to two factors.

First, they’ve been really bad at getting stops after the team gives the ball away. Five of the last six times the Pats have given the ball away the opposition has capitalized with touchdowns. Those are extra scores that make it look like the Pats are giving up more points than their defense is forcing opponents to earn with long drives.

Second, has been the big play touchdowns. They’re middle of the road as far as 20-yard-plus plays go, ranking 17th. But they’ve given up five long touchdowns after having given up just nine last year. Not huge numbers but enough to skew things in a small sample size.

In all the Pats have given up 52 points off turnovers. This seven-game total is higher than the full season totals in every year from 2009-2016 when Sporting Charts kept points-off-turnovers stats. 2013 is the one year they haven’t surpassed but that full-season total was just 64 points. The other full-season totals:

  • 2009 – 42
  • 2010 – 24
  • 2011 – 46
  • 2012 – 43
  • 2013 – 64
  • 2014 – 49
  • 2015 – 48
  • 2016 – 34

Just like goalies in hockey, it’s easy to blame the people responsible for not allowing points for undesirable results, but I continue to believe that in a straight-up possession, the Patriots defense is pretty damn good. It’s when they’re thrust into quick-change situations that they have been bad and that has skewed the point stats in an unprecedented way.

From the stats the prescription for the 2018 Pats is pretty simple — the offense must stop turning the ball over at a record rate and the defense must be better at getting off the field on third down. Those two things go hand in hand and if both are accomplished the Pats might not lose another game.