PatsPropaganda 2019 Mock Draft

The NFL Draft is once again upon us! And with 12 picks of draft capital, the Patriots are poised to get the players they most want. And the good news is that their positions of needs are well-stocked with talent this year.

That’s a very good thing. With key departures this offseason, the 2019 Patriots still face questions at multiple positions. Talented rookies are the lifeblood of the NFL and with a mostly red-shirted 2018 draft class, a new act under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is clearly about to begin and this draft will play a huge role.

More important than the players I’ve got the team selecting below are the trends that emerged as I rifled through mock draft simulations. Here are some quick-fire thoughts on that before we get into the picks.

• The six picks in the first three rounds loom large. There were always a number of good fits to pick from almost every time through, especially at positions of need — wide receiver, tight end and safety.
• I found myself consistently double-dipping at both tight end and wide receiver. This made for some of the most fun, and hardest to decide, of all mock drafts in recent memory. I think that’s a good sign what the Patriots really need.
• The hit or miss positions were quarterback and tackle. I could never seem to land any of the few tackles I liked without really reaching at the expense of a really good receiver or tight end. The quarterbacks felt like less extreme reaches.
• Linebacker and cornerback are other deep positions.
• The fifth-round hole is a spot where they could really stand to pick up another selection.
• The seventh rounders are just ridiculous and it would make sense to cash them in to spread rounds 4-7 out.

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Mock Draft

Round 1, Pick 32: A.J. Brown – WR – Mississippi

The Patriots shocked us all last year selecting a running back in the first round and this year, given the level of need at wide receiver I’m going with A.J. Brown, a dedicated football player and the kind of quick-open route runner that has often clicked with Tom Brady. Selecting a wideout in the first would be very un-BB, but it makes sense to do it now on a guy like Brown.

There is nothing more critical to the final years of Brady than continuing the Brown-Branch-Welker-Edelman legacy. Brown would have to learn how to deal with NFL-quality press man, but he has all the tools to figure it out.

There’s certainly a need for more of an outside receiver, as Brown would project more inside, and with Braxton Berrios also in the mix, it would be reasonable to see them look toward the defensive front seven with someone like Jerry Tillery in this spot. There are also a number of good fit receivers available later.

But Brown’s ability to get open, willingness to block and physical running with the ball in his hands would make him an instant factor for a Patriots offense that is desperate for weaponry.

Round 2, Pick 24: Johnathan Abram – S – Mississippi

Though I see safety as more of a long term need, Johnathan Abram was too good to pass up. I was amazed to see him consistently available in the second round, maybe that’s a pipe dream but I also wouldn’t rule out the Patriots trading up to get him.

Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung have been the backstops for three Super Bowl titles. Chung was extended this offseason, illustrating how much the Pats value him. But both have been in the league nearly a decade.

When the Pats pass defense really nosedived in between their two Super Bowl runs, it’s was primarily because they were terrible on the back end. Once McCourty moved to safety and Chung returned from a hiatus year, they’ve been lights out as part of a mostly man-coverage defense.

Abram is everything we saw in Chung coming out of Oregon. Tough, committed and plays with an infectious swagger. He doesn’t need to step in and start right away, but could be eased in on special teams and as a hybrid dime defender. And if anything happens to Chung, he’s almost ready to jump in.

As is often the case with college safeties, the question is can he cover tight ends? Chung sure had his struggles early on before he figured it out. They even tried him some on slot receivers in his first go-round. Abram has the size to line up over tight ends at least.

Again, if you talk about roles that have been necessary in winning Super Bowls, the versatile box safety like Rodney Harrison and Chung is a critical one that can’t go vacant.

Round 2, Pick 32: N’Keal Harry – WR – Arizona State

I found myself double dipping at wide receiver in most of my simulations because the quality of players was just too good to pass up. With one super competitive receiver already in the mix, I went with another in N’Keal Harry.

More of an outside option, though he has experience in the slot, Harry is a big target who gives non-stop effort no matter what his assignment. At 6’2″ he brings an element of size as well. He’d have to improve his route running at the NFL level, but has the quickness and more importantly, the presence to make an immediate impact.

With these two new rookie receivers the Patriots offense would get a jolt of personailty, something they need after losing Gronk’s presence.

Round 3, Pick 9: Jace Sternberger – TE – Texas A&M

OK, I had to go tight end at some point and while there were quite a few options usually available along the way, including Irv Smith Jr., I’m waiting and taking Jace Sternberger now.

I’m just not convinced any of the upper echelon guys are true “Y” tight ends that will be effective as pass catchers and blockers, so we’re taking an “F” tight end in the third.

Though he’s a willing blocker, Sternberger’s strength is running routes and catching the ball. The role is the third tight end, essentially a role ghosted by Jacob Hollister the last two seasons. At the least Sternberger can take that job. If he can improve on his blocking technique he might become even more useful.

While Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a solid addition, Sternberger could develop into the better seam threat.

Round 3, Pick 33: Armon Watts – DL – Arkansas

This is probably way too late for the first defensive front seven pick, especially for yours truly, but Armon Watts is a great defensive tackle fit for the Patriots scheme.

They added Mike Pennel, maybe the most underrated move of the offseason, but still have a need for a third interior guy. Watts could be more than that, with unique dimensions that would bring a lot of value and versatility.

Watts has similar traits to Richard Seymour (he’s not big Sey), but his combination of length and strength would allow him to play a number of roles in the defensive front, including defensive end.

Round 3, Pick 37: Kaden Smith – TE – Stanford

Instead of trying for an all-everything tight end to replace Gronk in the first couple rounds, I’m doing it piecemeal style in the third. With Sternberger ready to catch some passes they need a guy who can step in and block. I’m going with Kaden Smith from Stanford.

Smith was all over the place in rankings, but he’s one of my favorites so I took him here. He’s not an NFL-ready blocker but he has experience in a pro style scheme and has the size, strength and focus to improve.

He’s also a capable pass catcher with strong hands. The combination of him and Sternberger would instantly bring back memories of 2010 when Gronk and Hernando first entered our football lives.

This duo might not be as potent, but they’d sure be an improvement on what is on the roster Thursday morning before the draft starts.

Round 4, Pick 32: Clayton Thorson – QB – Northwestern

There are quite a few quarterbacks that I like in this draft class. Will Grier is a higher-round option, Easton Stick is a lower-round one, but Clayton Thorson felt about right here in the fourth.

There’s no question his game needs time to develop, but he’s just the kind of dedicated pocket quarterback that could succeed in the Patriots’ attack. He can run enough as well to be a threat, but learning to get through his progressions will be what makes or breaks him. He checks all the boxes otherwise, similar to how Brady did coming out.

The true mystery of this draft is will the Patriots take a quarterback in the first two rounds, signifying real interest that this could be Tom Brady’s successor. Or do they wait and play the value game, which was after all how they got Brady originally? I’m going with the latter.

Round 6, Pick 32: Porter Gustin – Edge – USC

The defense has some interesting unproven guys at defensive end to help replace Trey Flowers, and here I’m throwing Porter Gustin into the mix as well.

Gustin isn’t going to blow anyone away with his athleticism, but he’s the kind of big hard working guy that always seems to draw Bill Belichick’s attention. His bread-and-butter? Setting the edge, something that you can never have too much of.

In a perfect world he develops into a Rob Ninkovich role on early downs at left defensive end, usually hand-down. That role does require some pass drops, so Gustin’s ability to develop there would determine his ceiling.

The 7th Round and Beyond

At this point in the mock we’re truly searching for needles in the haystack and with eight selections already made I’m going to spare us all from predicting the true randoms the Patriots might take.

Let’s face it, the 7th round and rookie free agency are where the Patriots do some of their most devastating damage, but it’s hard to see them using more than eight or nine picks, with the seventh rounders likely fueling some board movement.

If I had to sum up this draft, it’s WEAPONZ because that’s what they need and that’s what there’s a lot of. Most exciting is the wide receiver class where there’s maybe ten other prospects I’d be thrilled with besides the ones I took.

Now, we sit back and wait for all of this to be completely wrong.