The AFC East has been dominated by the Patriots for the past 15 years (aka the Brady/Belichick era), to a degree that hasn’t been otherwise seen in NFL history. The Patriots won the division title in 13 of those years. The two losses, to the Jets in 2002 and the Dolphins in 2008, came down to tiebreakers.
That doesn’t mean that division titles are always all but guaranteed, that division games aren’t still typically a bit tougher than non division games (math on that at the end of the article), or that we shouldn’t pay attention to what is happening with those other teams in the offseason.
Let’s take a look at the coaching staff of each team, the biggest “skill” names on each side of the ball (non offensive linemen, basically), and some of the offseason moves they’ve made.
Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Rex Ryan (Same)
Offensive Coordinator: Greg Roman (Same)
Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Thurman (Same)
Assistant Head Coach: Rob Ryan (New)
Defensive Backs Assistant: Ed Reed (New)
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor
Runningbacks: Lesean McCoy, Reggie Bush
Wide Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods
Tight End: Charles Clay
Defensive Standouts: Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams
First Draft Pick: Shaq Lawson
The Bills finished last season with some rather staggering numbers versus their expectations. The belief was that they had a loaded defense that Rex Ryan was going to go in and take to unimagined heights. The offense was expected to be….maaaaybe good? What we actually witnessed was the polar opposite, the Bills finishing 9th in Offensive DVOA, 24th overall in Defensive DVOA, and 12th in Special Teams. Tyrod Taylor was the first quarterback in a looooong time to put up any kind of season worth remembering for the Bills.
The biggest move on offense was a fairly recent one, releasing Karlos Williams, who rushed for 517 yards on 93 carries as a rookie. They added Reggie Bush, which is essentially neutral. He can have a great game, but he’s inconsistent at best, and often injured. He’s on his fifth team in his career, and has been on your fantasy bench every time he’s had a good
game.
On defense, they got rid of Mario Williams, who has getting the Boston Media Treatment in Buffalo since that move (“He was undermining the coach in the locker room! Everything will be better without him!”). I’m not sure what to really expect out of Rob Ryan on the sideline…perhaps a brotherly fist fight between him and Rex if they disagree? The biggest move that concerns me, as a Patriots fan, is Ed Reed in the secondary. He is one of the smartest defensive backs to ever play the game, and plays with an attitude that is seemingly infectious. If he passes that along in his coaching, that could be dangerous with the talented Bills secondary. Gun to my head, I’d take him as a secondary assistant today over any Belichick child.
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Adam Gase (New)
Offensive Coordinator: Clyde Christensen (New)
Defensive Coordinator: Vance Joseph (New)
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill
Runningbacks: Arian Foster, Jay Ajayi
Wide Receivers: Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker
Tight End: Jordan Cameron
Defensive Standouts: Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, Reshad Jones
First Draft Pick: Laremy Tunsil
The Dolphins were a trainwreck last year. 29th in overall DVOA, 22nd on offense, 25th on defense, 24th on special teams. They had no shining light. It was ugly.
The coaching staff overhaul is interesting. Adam Gase is best known for his work as offensive coordinator with the 2013 Broncos in their record setting year with Peyton Manning. What he is less known for is his work as Quarterbacks coach for the Tim Tebow led Broncos team that won a playoff game, and in one year as offensive coordinator of the Bears turned in the best season of much maligned (and generally somber) Jay Cutler‘s career. This could be good for Ryan Tannehill, who has been quite up and down in his career and is likely in his last season in Miami if things don’t drastically change.
Schematically, Adam Gase is known more for spread style offenses. This isn’t a massive shift in basic look versus Bill Lazor (previous offensive coordinator in Miami), who came from a Chip Kelly system in Philadelphia, but should be a bit of a shift in pace with less of a no huddle focus.
Clyde Christensen was in Indianapolis from 2002-2015. He has worked with Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, two “chosen one” NFL quarterbacks. He wasn’t so hot with Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky in 2011, so I’m going to assume the jury is a bit out on him as on offensive coordinator/quarterback guru.
Vance Joseph was most recently the defensive backs coach in Cincinatti, where they have had some success getting the best out of defensive backs that seemed to be otherwise unwanted. I imagine his defense will schematically be along the lines of the Marvin Lewis defenses of the past, which leads to…
The biggest free agent move for Miami was bringing in Mario Williams on defense. If Williams, Suh, and Cam Wake can play to their potential, that can be a scary group of pass rushers. On offense they added Arian Foster. If he has something left in the tank and stays healthy, it’s a great move for Miami, as he is one of the more versatile backs in the league.
Overall, Miami looks to be the AFC East team with the most to gain, but they’re also built very top-heavy from a salary and depth perspective. We’ll see if year one of all these drastic changes takes hold or if it will take some time.
New York Jets
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (Same)
Offensive Coordinator: Chan Gailey (Same)
Defensive Coordinator: Kacy Rodgers (Same)
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Runningbacks: Matt Forte, Bilal Powell
Wide Receivers: Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall
Tight End: Kellen Davis
Defensive Standouts: Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Darrell Revis, Buster Skrine, Calvin Pryor, David Harris
First Draft Pick: Darron Lee, ILB. Other noteworthy pick: Christian Hackenberg, QB
The Jets were good last year. Of all the teams in the entire NFL that didn’t make the playoffs, they had the best record (10-6), and missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers. They were 9th overall in DVOA, 14th in Offensive DVOA, 5th in Defensive DVOA, and 25th in Special Teams DVOA.
Todd Bowles is seemingly no joke as a Jets head coach. He doesn’t feed the media with one liners or any kind of bluster. There’s no foot fetish videos to be found, and his last name isn’t one letter away from and slang for tucking one’s junk between their legs (uh…that last part isn’t about Rex Ryan. Go back one coach further. Are we on the same page now? Okay, good). I mean, maybe there’s a toilet joke somewhere that can be made, but he hasn’t earned that sort of critique. He just coaches football. You have to respect that.
The Jets were average on offense last year. You can point that directly to Ryan Fitzpatrick, king of the overthrow. If he could be consistently accurate with open receivers and Brandon Marshall doesn’t have his standard year two meltdown, that “average” could easily be top ten. It was also Chan Gailey’s first year back on the sidelines since 2012, so if there is such thing as coaching rust, that could conceivably be shaken off this year and things may open up on offense a bit more.
The Jets were back to being great on defense in their switch from Rex Ryan to Todd Bowles/Kacy Rodgers, and have the names and talent in place to be right back near the top of the league. Leonard Williams was a rookie last year and had a very strong showing.
The one thing that could hold the Jets back this year: their veteran leadership. I don’t mean lack of, I mean that most of the leadership on their team is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, in many of the positions where it starts to show. Key players over 30 on their roster as of this writing: Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Harris, Nick Mangold, Brandon Marshall, Darrell Revis, Ryan Clady, Kellen Davis, Matt Forte, Erin Henderson. That’s a lot of mileage.
Oh, and the Jets are the only AFC East team to get the Patriots twice this year without suspended Brady. That’s gotta count for something.
Overall, the rest of the AFC East has a lot of talent in place to try and make their move for the division crown, but it will be up to Patriots players up and down the roster to step up and maintain their place on top. People have oftentimes used the strength of the AFC East to slight the Patriots record, but since 2001, they’re 182-58 vs the entire NFL (.760 winning percentage), and 69-23 vs the AFC East (.750 winning percentage, marginally less). Even if the other AFC East teams fare poorly against the rest of the league, they perform better than the rest of the league when playing against the Patriots.
The Patriots are very, very deep this year with talent, and between suspensions, IR, and PUP will be adding fresh bodies throughout the season, which means new wrinkles for their competition to deal with. We’ll see what happens as the division games come along. For now, we’re on to Arizona.
I. Can. Not. Wait. For. Sunday. LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
