This was our most extensive year researching and discussing the draft, and like all good teams/bloggers you must be critical with your self-evaluation if you want to improve.
This is the sixth draft that I obsessed over from a Patriots perspective. Prior to that I just looked at the list of draftees and tried to make sense of it. But the five previous drafts have definitely been an education, so I was hoping that this year I could get 75% of the Patriots picks on my Patriots-only Big Board.
This will be a review of how I did, and why I missed who I did. This will include reflections on my Patriots-only Big Board and Patriots-only Mock Draft.
17. Nate Solder
Patriots-only Big Board Rank: 12
Solder was definitely one of my favorite Patriots prospects. I mentioned him in every non-PatsProp article I wrote for other sites, and I had him as 33rd overall pick in my Pats-only mock. Had him a little lower than he actually went, but otherwise I nailed this one. Solder stood out to me as a Vollmer clone, and I thought the Patriots could allow him a year to develop. He has great size and athleticism and that is always tempting for BB given what the Pats ask their OL to do.
33. Ras-I Dowling
Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 28
I also nailed Ras-I in my Patriots-only mock, albeit having him in the 74th overall slot. He seemed to me the classic guy who falls because of injury ala Brandon Tate, thus setting him up to be an excellent value pick. Dowling fit the exact need I’ve talked about most of the spring… a rookie DB who can play some sub packages in year one, but eventually projects to Free Safety where he could replace Brandon Meriweather and/or James Sanders since both of their contracts are up after 2011. Going two for two, though much higher than I predicted, was a pretty solid start out of the gates.
56. Shane Vereen
Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 36
I thought the Patriots would definitely tap a running back in the second or third round, however I chose Johnny White at 92 instead of Vereen who was ranked 5 spots higher on the big board. I went with White because he was a similar situation to Dowling in that he battled injuries this past season, thus dropping his ranking. 3 for 3 on the big board, 2 for 3 on the Pats-only mock.
73. Stevan Ridley
Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 53
Nobody saw back to back running backs here, but Ridley was definitely a guy on our radar that we saw as a fit. Tough to nail this pick in the mock but it would’ve been a disappointing miss if he had not been on the big board.
74. Ryan Mallett
Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: UNRANKED
We didn’t have any quarterbacks on our big board, not because we didn’t like any of them, because we just figured it’d be a shocker if they took one. Would we have had Mallett on there even if we included QBs? Probably not. So our first miss.
138. Marcus Cannon
Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED
I wrote off Cannon early in the process for reasons I’m still not entirely sure of, but there’s a nice little X next to him in my PFW draft guide. But looking back now his unique frame and set of abilities should have pinged my Patriots radar more than it did. I consider Cannon my biggest miss of the draft.
159. Lee Smith
Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED
I’m frustrated that I missed Smith because I included another Tight End Luke Stocker for the same reasons that made Smith appealing. I put him on based on this: has the frame, tenacity and strength to develop into a powerful run blocker. Stocker is a blue collar-type player. Sounds just like Smith’s description, huh?
194: Markell Carter & 219: Malcolm Williams
Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED ON BOTH (OBVIOUSLY)
I’m putting the last two picks together, because clearly they were outside of the box for everyone. I mean if Williams himself didn’t even think he’d get drafted how would I have any clue he’d get drafted. Neither are listed or ranked in any of the places I did all my research. So it’s a pass in that I’m not frustrated that I missed them, but nonetheless, I missed them.
Final Stats
Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees
Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked
Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)
The numbers don’t jump off the page exactly, and I believe that Cannon, Smith and even Mallett should’ve potentially be hits for me. It really should’ve been 6 out of 9. Nailing Solder and Dowling in the Patriots-only mock was surprising to even myself, and is definitely something to build on.
Each year I feel like I learn a little more and that was taken to a new level this year. Watch out in 2012!
