It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.
But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.
And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.
The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.
But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.
All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?
Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.
Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…
- Congrats to old blog fave Mike Vrabel on his new coaching gig with the Titans. Weird that the Titans fired and hired a new coach within a week of getting ousted by the Pats. I’ve always hoped it would be Vrabel to replace Belichick someday and I think it’s lining up nicely. He’ll get a few years in Tennessee, learn a bunch, get fired and then be looking to re-build his career a bit somewhere he trusts. Even if it’s not as BB’s replacement, maybe it’s Brian Flores’ as DC? Vrabel was just one of those Patriots that embodied everything they’ve done. Smart, physical and uniquely versatile. You can see a bunch of great Vrabel quotes and links from PatsProp over the years here.
- Brady’s hand cut (let’s call it what it is) enabled the Pats to control the narrative this week but one terrible sidestory is the take that it gives Brady and the Pats a built-in excuse if he loses and only adds to his legend if he wins. What’s he supposed to do? He cut his hand in practice. The media was going to make it a circus whether the Pats played it close to the vest or rolled Brady out there to present his stitches and full medical evaluation. Just shows no matter what the Pats do these days there’s a terrible take to it that someone will find and make.
- This is the last I’ll talk about it, but Lewis, Burkhead and Develin today. They will be the Jaguars biggest problems.
- And if Jalen Ramsey wants to take Gronk I’m excited to see what happens when he’s at the point of attack in the run game. Good luck getting off a Gronk block, Jalen.
- The Jags D is built to stop the pass and only Ben Roethlisberger surpassed 300 yards against them (twice). For all the HOW DID GAROPPOLO DO IT!? talk let’s remember he only threw for 238 yards. What that does illustrate though is how precision underneath passing is what kills Jax. Not downfield, chuck it to Cooks/Hogan, dump it off to Lewis, Burkhead, White and Develin and let them take the Jags out of their comfort zone.
- 8 teams ran for more than 130 yards against the Jags, and they were 4-4 in those games, based on large part whether or not they won the turnover battle. So I think it’s all there and one thing is for sure, to get Super Bowl #6 Brady will face two very good defenses that are built to stop QBs like him. But again, that’s why it’s all about that run game.
Now we just count down the hours and try to enjoy it. The weather looks great, the atmosphere should be amazing and it should be the best game of the season. Gotta savor these moments because pretty soon they’re going to become few and far between as they are for the rest of the league. But for today, the Pats’ dynasty is very much intact and still on an epic run. Let’s enjoy the crap out of it! Let’s go Pats!!
