We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.
This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.
What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.
This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.
A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.
Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.
This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.
In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.
My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.
So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.
There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.
Notes on Needs
X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have "The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.
Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.
Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.
DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.
OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.