Tonight the Patriots will play their fourth and final game of the 2016 preseason, and if they can just get through this one without an injury they’ll have escaped an entire summer without a season-ender. That’s pretty impressive and of course, the injury risks are somewhat lessened because most of the big names will see limited, if any, action.
But let’s not get too excited yet, because who knows what Belichick’s plans are for Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. Both players could play and anytime the (two) starting quarterback(s) play in the preseason, I’m holding my breath.
Julian Edelman travelled with the team as well and if he enters the game that’s one to hold your breath for as well. Otherwise it should be a scrubfest and there’s not a ton we can take from anything we see.
Still, for all the debate that rages in Patriots nation right now, all that really matters are injuries. Tell me in January how many guys are on Injured Reserve and I’ll tell you exactly how the Patriots season went and what their Super Bowl chances are. I know this is the boring take, but it’s the truth.
That’s where the Patriots are now. They’re a hand-picked, finely-tuned football team that is better coached than any one else. The only way they don’t make it within a play or two of their fifth Super Bowl is if the wrong guys get hurt.
While people invent talking points like Brady hating Garoppolo (or whatever it is they’re saying because I don’t really listen to it) or Marcus Cannon being little more than a turnstile in a Patriots jersey, it’s all just noise. And as I love to say here on the blog, Ignore the Noise.
So let’s just try to enjoy one last mostly-stress-free football games before things get intense.
Here are some things to keep an eye on and some ramblings on what’s about to go down over the next four days.
— The guys who could still grab a roster spot that I most want to see:
- DJ Foster — we had a great breakdown of Foster by Rick Starke this week and there’s plenty of folks out there who think Foster is about to make James White expendable. While I’m not the biggest White fan and think Foster showed similar explosiveness to him along with an extra-yard grittiness that I don’t really see in White, I don’t think White’s going anywhere at this point. We should see extended time from Foster tonight and I’d like to see him find a groove and really show what he can do. If he does that he could lock up a roster spot, but I see him firmly on the bubble right now.
- AJ Derby — Derby had a costly drop on a third down last week. Tom Brady didn’t seem too psyched about it. That’s unfortunate because Derby has been one of the biggest revelations this preseason. Would love to see Derby bounce back and show why he deserves a roster spot. I think he’s close to a lock.
- Barkevious Mingo — as expected, Mingo was getting work with the linebackers this week in practice. I’m fascinated to see what the Patriots do with him, but I think he’ll be mostly standing up, whether he’s playing coverage or rushing the quarterback.
- Geneo Grissom — he’s very much on the roster bubble now with Mingo in the mix. Mingo can take his special teams snaps. He needs a big game.
— I’m still waiting to see something from LaAdrian Waddle that helps me believe the depth at tackle isn’t already at a critical point. Would love to see him take some extended snaps at right tackle and show something. That would put my mind at ease because it’s a long season and while I think the Pats will be fine with their starting five OL, injuries could quickly make things dicey. I could go into a ran here about how I wanted a tackle in the second round this year over a cornerback, but Cyrus Jones looks legit so I digress.
— Decision time for Danny Amendola and the PUP list comes on Saturday. If he does get PUP’d that means he’s out the first six weeks and I don’t think the Patriots would feel comfortable only rolling Edelman, Chris Hogan and Keshawn Martin out for that long, though Malcolm Mitchell should return sooner than later. That could open the door for Aaron Dobson, though the Pats were supposedly shopping him for a trade earlier this week. Dobson just keeps hanging around but I’m done waiting for him to break out.
— Jordan Richards is going to play a lot tonight and I’ll be watching how he’s used. Of all the places where the Pats can’t afford to get hurt, strong safety/Patrick Chung is a major one. I like Richards’ style of play, but he is nowhere near ready to cover NFL tight ends yet. Would love to see some improvement from him, because if Chung were to go down Richards could be an important player. Though at this point it’d likely mean McCourty moves to strong safety full time with Harmon at free. But that’s a negative hit for the defense.
— Really thought we might’ve had something in Rufus Johnson last year but the guy’s missed a bunch of sacks this preseason and has been generally ineffective. He’s playing for a practice squad spot tonight.
— Last time I’ll say this, but I still have no idea what to make of Tyler Gaffney. Him making the team and playing seems slightly less probable to the Pats cutting him and signing some other free agent running back castoff they like better. He should get plenty of carries.
I’ll be back with the Posits tomorrow and then we’re on to the craziness of Labor Day weekend. I’m excited that this will be the first season with the contributors and we’ve got a great plan for total Pats coverage that you won’t find anywhere else. Between that and the partnerships we’ll be announcing in the next week or so it will be another awesome year for the Prop. Hope you’ll stick around for all of it!