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2017 PatsPropaganda Draft Big Board

April 7, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Welcome to Year 7 of the PatsPropaganda Draft Big Board! Going with a little bit different format this year. Instead of ranking these prospects 1-50 I’m going to leave them separated by position to make it a little easier to follow and a little less dependent on rankings.

As always, these are players that I see as fitting what the Patriots do. Needs are calculated a tiny bit (no QBs this year), but generally it’s more about the player and how he fits. Still, I’ve listed the positions as I generally view the draft needs, with linebacker, defensive end, running back and tackle being the priorities.

I’m looking to bounce back after my worst year ever in 2016. The whole point of this — doing one big board with 50 guys and one mock draft — was to bring a level of accountability to it and to challenge myself to see how many picks I could nail. This year is especially difficult because as of early April the Pats still don’t have their first pick until the third round. I expect that to change. So there are some higher-end prospects mixed in here, but generally I tried to start at the bottom and work my way backwards.

I’ll drop my mock draft the week before the draft. This is a fluid list so please comment if you think I’ve left a perfect Patriots fit off! Hopefully I can nail at least a couple picks this year!!

Let’s get after it!

Gosselin: How Bill Belichick gives the Patriots an edge over every other NFL team at draft time | SportsDay

March 30, 2017 by Mike Dussault

If you’re grading drafts, there are lots of As and Bs to hand out after the first three rounds. But it’s what teams do in Rounds 4-7 that can make a good draft great.And no one knows the draft board — the entire draft board — like Patriots coach Bill Belichick. There are no throwaway picks when the Patriots are on the clock. New England has become the NFL’s dominant team because the Patriots own the back end of the draft.

Source: Dallas Cowboys: How Bill Belichick gives the Patriots an edge over every other NFL team at draft time | SportsDay

Gosselin is one of the most respected football writers out there, so obviously, as you can see above, he gets it. As much as the draft and all the amateur draftniks out there annoy me, there’s a special place in my heart for those who still try to tell me “Belichick can’t draft” or “Belichick the GM doesn’t help Belichick the coach”.

This assumes that somewhere out there there’s someone who CAN draft. Someone who hits on every pick. Someone who would never draft Ras-I Dowling 33rd overall. Okay, maybe that one has a point.

But the draft is really just an elaborate lottery. Even the guys making the picks don’t know for sure how any selection will truly work out. You see their body of work in college, their timed measurables, you’ve talked to them, maybe even brought them into the facility and shown them around, but when training camp rolls around no one knows for sure how the player will respond.

How will he handle not being the most talented player on the field anymore? How will he handle having a fat bank account? How will he handle not getting the playing time he wants? How will he pick up the playbook? Will his career just be injury after injury?

NOBODY KNOWS. It’s impossible to know. So for every seven-round mock draft out there by some random dude in the proverbial Mom’s basement, there’s guys like Mel Kiper who might be just as wrong.

It’s Time to Talk Some Patriots Draft

March 23, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s hard to believe that April is quickly approaching. I guess that’s what happens when your football season stretches into February. Between parades and celebrations it didn’t feel like the offseason even really started until a couple of weeks ago. Ah, the spoils of being a Patriots fan.

This of course means that the draft will soon be on us. I’ve got to be honest with you guys… I’m kind of over the draft. Well, not the part where the Patriots get some new toys to play with, the lead-up part where everyone’s an expert and no one is really an expert. There are mock drafts upon mock drafts and vehement arguments about who’s a good fit and all that. I’m over it.

And with the Patriots (currently) not picking until the third round it makes all the speculation even more silly.

Anyway, I’ll still proceed with my draft research, which, since 2011 has consisted of putting together a Top 50 Patriots Prospects Board and one single glorious mock draft. You can see all of it in the menu bar above, including my tragic fall from grace last season when I got Cyrus Jones and only Cyrus Jones.

Patriots 2016 Draft Wrap

May 1, 2016 by Mike Dussault

My favorite time of the draft season is here! No longer are we looking at hundreds of players who might possibly, but probably not, end up on the Patriots. Nope, now we know who the Pats have and can dive in on those players and how they fit.

This was my worst draft performance of my six seasons putting together a big board and mock drafting. Cyrus Jones was the only player I had on my 50 prospect big board and for the first time, I got zero guys in my mock draft. However I don’t think I was alone. This draft seemed especially filled with lesser-discussed players.

Really, by the end, I think almost all Pats draft pundits (except Mike Reiss, who was dead on with a couple of the “who’s that??” guys) were all targeting the same guys and thus we were all way off. But none of that really matters so let’s jump in and take a big picture look at what the Pats did over the last three days.

The headline for me is that they didn’t take a running back. I thought of all the positions of need, running back was the one that they had to take. So of course they didn’t touch any of the guys that we connected them to, even when they were right there for the taking. Worst of all, many of those guys went to direct rivals, like Devontae Booker to the Broncos, Jonathan Williams to the Bills and Kenneth Dixon to the Ravens.

So now it looks like Tyler Gaffney and Donald Brown must show something because entering the season with only Dion Lewis, James White and LeGarrette Blount as backs who can make an impact is scary. My priority this offseason was to re-make the running back position and the Pats have barely touched it.

Of course, if Dion Lewis returns and stays healthy they’ll be fine. But that’s a big if, and it’s hard to count on a player who, aside from an electric start to 2015, hasn’t done much else.

The other big area of need I felt had to be addressed was offensive tackle, where they had to plan for 2017. We don’t know for sure if it was addressed but it would seem that it wasn’t. The question mark is Joe Thuney who has played every position on the line but generally, due to his size, would seem a better fit inside.

Bill Belichick pointed out in his press conference that there were similar questions with Matt Light‘s size and he worked out fine at left tackle, but if Thuney does end up inside the Pats have a log jam of guards and centers and will likely have to cut a player or two that played significant snaps for them last year, while tackle depth remains thin.

Outside of those two concerns, there’s still plenty to love about the players the Pats selected.

I’m most excited about Cyrus Jones and Malcolm Mitchell. In watching their film, it’s clear they fit what the Patriots do extremely well. I wouldn’t say Jones is just a slot corner, though that’s probably where he will start. He’s a smart, quick man-coverage player who has the tenacity to play against bigger receivers. And his punt return vision is unique and exciting.

Watch Mitchell’s film and you’ll see him running many of the same routes we saw out of Brandon LaFell last season — outside comebacks, digs, etc. It’s clear that he’s already done a lot of what the Patriots ask of their primary X receiver and he should combine with Chris Hogan to give the Pats two new outside options that should take some heat off of the middle of the field. Aaron Dobson has a tough road ahead to make the roster with these two in the mix.

The final four picks were all interesting flyers — S/LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB Elandon Roberts, G Ted Karras and WR Devin Lucian (who seems like a poor man’s version of everyone’s favorite Patriots prospect Sterling Shepard). Karras was the one player who was on my radar early in the process, but of course I discounted him because I thought we were so stacked at guard. But he certainly fits the mold of our favorite kind of maulers.

I’ve really enjoyed getting to know quarterback Jacoby Brissett too. Yes, I still like Jimmy Garoppolo, and we think Brady still has a few years left, but injuries can derail anyone in the blink of an eye. Having two young promising quarterbacks is a huge bonus and the Pats are smart to keep the pipeline strong should anything unforeseen happen to Brady.

Brissett is a lot of fun to watch with sneaky athleticism that doesn’t jump off the screen, only makes him seemingly impossible to tackle in the open field, with subtle moves that always seem to pick up first downs. He has good touch in the short passing game and processes defenses, knowing where to go with the ball. It will be fun to watch him and Garoppolo this summer. Plus he’s extremely tough to bring down, showing good playing strength.

Another draft has come and gone. I certainly feel excited that Jones and Mitchell will contribute to the 2016 team, but as for the rest it’s going to be a process to see who can do what. My concerns about lacking an early-down pounder at running back and having the same tackle depth that killed us last year are real, but of course, there could still be moves to come before the season-opener. We’ll just have to trust the process until then.

But let’s remember, at the top, this is one of the best rosters in the NFL and if they aren’t ravished by injuries, especially in a couple key spots, they certainly have the talent to once again make a Super Bowl run.

Here’s the current depth chart. Thanks to Mike Loyko and James Christensen of NEPatriotsDraft.com for tracking all the undrafted rookie signings.

Screenshot 2016-05-01 at 7.56.58 AM

Second-Guessing My Patriots Draft Predictions

April 25, 2016 by Mike Dussault

With the draft just a few days away and as I settle with my Top-50 board, mock draft and general feeling of where the Patriots will attack this draft, I find myself wondering where the Pats might zag on my zig.

The first four picks, back-to-back in both the second and third rounds, are vital, especially without a first round pick this year. My four positions that I think they’ll address are 1. Running Back 2. Defensive Line 3. Offensive Tackle and 4. Wide Receiver. That’s the order of likelihood I think they’ll draft those positions, not the order of need.

I think a defensive tackle will fall to them in the second round, but I am unsure if they’ll ignore penetrating three techniques as much as I predicted they will. I went with Austin Johnson, who seems to fit the role of Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in the scheme. Both of those vets are free agents next year. But names like Sheldon Day, who is more like Dominique Easley than a monster in the middle.

Now, I’m second-guessing that I should’ve gone in that direction, toward the three-techniques, despite Mike Reiss’ report a couple weeks ago that the he heard the Pats were getting away from that style of defensive tackle after a brief experiment with them. I’m conflicted about that.

After all, I was Mr. Interior Rush Drum Banger circa 2010. Maybe Easley has me spooked. I don’t know. I do think they’re limited in how much they can play in this defense, and that Malcom Brown is versatile enough to play three downs. That will leave a Ninkovich-Brown-Sheard-Long best pass rush front, hopefully with Trey Flowers contributing early and emerging later as solid rotational player. Still not sure how Geneo Grissom fits in either. But there’s a ton of depth at defensive end and they can cover the role Easley was being used for, although it would make the front a bit lighter.

A lot of people disliked my offensive tackle pick, but I still think they should hit that position early with an athletic right tackle-of-the-future. The main positional conflict was with those wanting a wide receiver. As much as I tried to find one, I couldn’t find a wide receiver I really loved and felt checks all the boxes for the Pats, except for Sterling Shepard.

There certainly were guys with the right traits, but all had some sort of red flag, or just didn’t jump off the tape to me. I think wide receiver is still the position where fanalysts try to jam talent down our throats, when we’ve discussed time and again how hard it is for a wide receiver in this system. I like guys like Leontae Carroo and Braxton Miller, I just don’t feel great about them picking things up immediately.

Still, I’d love to see them take a chance on a wide receiver early, I just believe the talent and value in the late-second round is far better at offensive and defensive tackle, and those positions are far more vital to the long-term health of the franchise. Many want a big X-receiver type, but I’m more than fine with a “get open quick” type to help manage Edelman and Amendola’s wear and tear a bit.

Finally, I feel good about my view of the running back spot. I went with Arkansas’ Alex Collins, but I could see any of this group – Jonathan Williams, Kenneth Dixon and Devontae Booker — fitting in well with the need, which I see as an early down pounder. What would surprise me would be if the Pats targeted more of a receiving back.

There’s plenty of groupthink picks out there too by all us Pats pundits. Keenan Reynolds, Dan Vitale and Daniel Braverman are just a few that almost everyone has connected to the Pats at some point.

It’s a big week and Friday and Saturday should be a lot of fun. As always, I’ll be surprised if I’m not surprised at least a couple time by who the Pats take. You can bet your money at least one of the picks will be a player none of us have heard of or studied. That’s what makes it fun.

Despite their lack of a first round pick, the Patriots should be able to improve their team and fill a number of holes.

Getting a Feel for the Patriots Draft Positions

April 18, 2016 by Mike Dussault

I’ll unleash my only Patriots mock draft of the spring this Thursday and in preparation for it I’ve been running dozens of mock drafts on FanSpeak’s mock draft generator. Some interesting trends have started to emerge, and it also forces me to go back and consider guys that I left off my initial Top-50 Big Board.

Patriots 2016 Draft Slots

Here’s what we can say about the Patriots’ draft — their four picks at the end of the second and third rounds are vital. I find myself constantly looking at some combination of these four positions – offensive tackle, defensive tackle, running back and wide receiver. Then there’s a huge gap of 100 picks that takes us all the way to the bottom of the sixth round with generally no exciting names left on the board.

Even combining the two early 6th rounders (196 & 204) doesn’t get the Pats up to the fifth round very far, which leads me to think that one of those first four picks will have to traded away to give them a fourth-round pick, and hopefully add a pick in 2017 as well.

Which pick gets dealt is likely related to how the board falls, but while I used to think the Pats could even trade up in the second round, I’m finding that less and less likely because 60 and 61 are a great spot to find the value that falls through the cracks.

With such big gaps in this board, it’s extremely difficult to predict how things will unfold. The big gaps in this draft are 59 picks, 100 picks, then finally 22 picks.

Positionally I was intrigued by this note from Mike Reiss over the weekend:

What the Patriots are valuing from a traits standpoint at defensive tackle could be changing. That is how one member of the Patriots front office described Friday’s decision to waive one-time starter Chris Jones, which came two days after jettisoning Easley. Both Jones and Easley fit best in a more traditional 4-3, and the Patriots seem poised to phase out 3-technique tackles on their roster while focusing more on bigger, stouter tackles.

Notice that this doesn’t necessarily signal a scheme change, just that the Pats are okay using a third defensive end in the designated pass rusher spot instead of specifically have an upfield defensive tackle who would likely only contribute in sub-packages. Sub is still 75 percent of the snaps so it’s hard to say a defensive tackle like that is truly a niche role, but you can understand the thinking the Pats might have.

As I’ve said thousands of times over the past four years, saying the defense is going back to a 3-4 doesn’t really make sense. The game is different now than when the Patriots could play the 3-4 for an entire game, rarely bringing on an extra defensive back, like they did in the 2000’s. I first said it around 2011, nickel is base now. The 3-4 is Belichick’s teaching defense. They will always have the 3-4 for specific run-stopping situations, but you’re talking at most about maybe 15-20 percent of the snaps in a game they might play the 4-3, and overall they were in regular (four DB) defense less than 25 percent in all of 2015.

The scheme now is essentially two big defensive tackles doing the job that two defensive ends and a nose tackle used to do in the 3-4 — eat space and allow the linebackers and hybrid edge players to make plays. So really, it’s more of a 2-5 now that they play anyway.

How will this affect the draft is most interesting to me because there are plenty of interesting 3-technique players who aren’t ideal space eaters that guys like Branch, Brown and Knighton are. A guy like Sheldon Day of Notre Dame intrigues me because he’s no a pure one-gapper though he’s built like one. That’s the kind of guy that will be available when the Pats are selecting.

I still think there’s an argument to be made that you need a versatile corps of interior defenders and someone like Day could certainly be helpful to give the Pats defense a different twist. But if they are set on sticking with nose tackles and former 5-techniques inside, someone like Austin Johnson of Penn State could fit the bill if he falls to the late-second. But again, how many of those 6’5″, 315-plus guys can you really use?

Ideally I think you have to go OT and DT with the first two picks. Those are the most important positions in football, where the battle is won. Running back, wide receiver and cornerback are certainly needs, but I’m finding not much difference in talent between the 2nd, 3rd and even fourth round with those positions. But the dropoff at offensive tackle and defensive tackle, especially looking for specific skills sets (i.e. athleticism at tackle and size at defensive tackle), falls off a cliff pretty quickly after the second round. Both are deep classes, but at important positions so I expect an early run on both.

And again, I don’t even know how big a need defensive tackle truly is for 2016. If they were trying to replace Easley I’d say go grab someone like Day. If they want to stick with Brown, Branch, Knighton-types, they aren’t in dire straits for another guy that size to come in and play significant minutes. So defensive tackle and cornerback (which is a similar long-term insurance/depth need) could really wait until the middle rounds.

NFL Draft Needs: Patriots – Draft Analysis – Rotoworld.com

March 29, 2016 by Mike Dussault

NFL Draft Needs: Patriots – Rotoworld.com

1. Offensive Line

2. Running Back

3. Defensive Line

Source: NFL Draft Needs: Patriots – Draft Analysis – Rotoworld.com

You’re never going to get much complaining from me focusing on the offensive and defensive line. My extensive list of the Patriots needs can be found here, but the closer we get to the draft the less it’s about need and the more it’s about fit. So while this mock draft has the Pats going with an unpolished defensive end with their first pick, not something I’m really on board with, who can say it isn’t what they’ll do? That said, I don’t think Yannick Ngakoue is a great fit for the Pats.

However as for the rest of this mock draft, I have six of the nine picks on my big board, so there are quite a few good fits in this mock draft.

So many mock drafts are simply paint-by-numbers based on need, especially when they’re written by someone who doesn’t know the depth the team has. The Patriots rely on development as much as any team as we saw last year with the changing of the guard at cornerback. Those are always the kind of moves that make fans the most worried, handing the starter’s keys to the youngsters and hoping they can deliver. But that’s the only way to truly find out the potential of players like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan.

I think it’s less important to look at immediate needs in the draft and more important to look at the long-term health of the franchise. That’s why I agree that tackle is the priority in this draft. It’s a critical position that isn’t easy to rebuild in free agency without overpaying, unlike cornerback where I think it’s a lot easier to plug someone in and get by with them.