An Independent Patriots Blog
Solder to the Patriots at 17th overall. I had Solder to the Pats at 28 in my mock draft, I’ve thought he’s a great fit with his size and athleticism. Assuming the Pats re-sign Matt Light he’ll have a year to work with Dante Scarnecchia. I like the pick and it’s definitely in an area that will be a big need shortly…
https://www.patspropaganda.com/solder-to-the-patriots-at-17th-overall-i-had/
We’re in the height of the disinformation stage of the NFL draft so I find it amusing that first we get this doozy from Peter King’s MMQB today:
Someone who knows Bill Belichick well told me the other day his MO for this draft will be like it’s been for many others: Approach a pick like he wants to trade it, wait until there’s a minute left on the clock, and if he doesn’t have a good offer, turn in a name to pick. This person said he thinks this could be the case at number 28, with Mark Ingram on the board. He’ll have Ingram in his back pocket – the Patriots love him – and if they don’t get a good offer from a team moving up (probably moving up for a quarterback), Belichick could say, “Turn in the card for Ingram.”
Then we get Mark Ingram tweeting that he’s about to hop a plane to Boston. So to the uninitiated it would seem like the Patriots are definitely interested in the Alabama running back.
Ingram is yet another one of those guys who produce like crazy in college but don’t have the combine numbers to wow anyone. This is similar to what was said of Emmitt Smith when he was coming out, not to say that Ingram is going to be the next Emmitt. But it definitely looks like Ingram could slide on draft day, and teams who like him might be tempted to hop up and grab him.
Now I don’t doubt that Ingram is on the Patriots draft board but in looking at this situation I’m even more sure that it’s more important to the Patriots draft that other teams know they like him, than how much they do actually like him.
Why? Because Ingram looks like he’ll surely be available at 17, unless the Dolphins actually do what 90% of the mock drafts out there have them doing and take him at 15. If you believe the Pats like him and could take him at 17 it sets a floor for how long Ingram might be available.
What I am sure of is that there are a limited number of prospects that fit value and talent-wise at 17th overall, and I definitely don’t think Ingram is one of them, but sending a message that they’re interested in Ingram and could possibly consider taking him at 17 might be impetus for another team to trade up and take him above the Pats.
The benefit for the Patriots comes when players like Cameron Jordan and JJ Watt, if available, fall another slot, potentially to 17 where they could have a much greater impact for the Pats than Ingram could.
The Patriots should definitely come out of this draft with a new running back for the stable. But the value in the second and third round will be outstanding as there’s a good collection of running backs who fit the Patriots mold, and wouldn’t cost a first round pick to get.
Put it this way, there’s no Patriots news out there, especially from a main stream writer like King, that they don’t want out there. This is an organization that is ALWAYS competing. So when there are leaks like this, assume the reasoning is much more about benefiting the Patriots than it is allowing the outside to know who they do or don’t like.
Though keep your eyes and ears peeled this weekend and early next week. Occasionally that’s where the real information leaks get out. Until then, lean on the side of this being a smokescreen with ulterior motives.
Here’s a new JJ Watt scouting video. If you took a vote from all the mock drafters, fans and pundits Wat would probably win the Most Likely Patriots Pick award. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/heres-a-new-jj-watt-scouting-video-if-you-took-a/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXk
JJ Watt Highlights set to the Fletch theme? Oh boy!
In various mock drafts I’ve seen Watt go at 10th overall, I’ve seen him go 32nd overall. Impossible to say exactly what his ceiling or floor are at this point, but we’ll certainly have a better sense once we get accurate measurements on him and see how he tests. But he certainly has to be on the Patriots radar given his size and strength, whatever the exact numbers might be.
Just remember when it comes to the combine, it’s all ball bearings these days.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/jj-watt-highlights-set-to-the-fletch-theme-oh/
We’re less than 11 weeks away from the NFL draft and Cameron Jordan is my current “boo” of draft picks for the Patriots. My attachment to him is slowly growing, but I’m trying to keep it under control since there’s just as good of a chance he’ll end up on a team I hate as there is he ends up on the Pats.
Unfortunately it also seems like he’s in the top 10 of a lot of recent mock drafts and I expect that to continue after the combine. So he’s probably not going to be there at 17, but let’s imagine what a player like Jordan could theoretically do for the Patriots.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/were-less-than-11-weeks-away-from-the-nfl-draft/
While I’ve been blogging about the Pats since the 2007 season this was the first time I really took the time to re-watch the games to try and crack the defensive code of what exactly the Patriots do on defense.
You can look over at the column on the right to see where I recorded snap percentages, my interpretations of defensive game plans, and a rough note of what formations were used. Look, I don’t claim that any of it is one hundred percent airtight accurate, but when you look at the entire body of work you start to understand a lot of things that most Patriots fans don’t see when they just watch the game once.
When you lack a lot of three down players in your front seven you have to become a team of specialization. What made previous Patriots teams so good was that players like Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, and Richard Seymour were so versatile they could play every down, pass or run. The fact that they were big, physical players certainly helped.
Now the Patriots lack players like that, outside of Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork and maybe Gerard Warren who was versatile more out of necessity due to injuries than being versatile. While Jermaine Cunningham could project as a three down OLB down the road, there doesn’t appear to be much more versatility in the defensive front seven. You can go right down the line and categorize every other player as a run or pass player.
Of course there will always be specialists. Ted Johnson was the Brandon Spikes of old. Roman Phifer was the Gary Guyton of old. But really where you’d love to have the versatility is with your defensive ends and outside linebackers, who can hopefully be interchangeable to some extent.
Much is made that the Pats play a 3-4 defense and that influences what players they’ll consider when drafting. Well there’s a lot more to it than that.
So while everyone’s talking about needing an outside linebacker or defensive end, take into consideration that versatility is really the key ingredient especially when you’re talking about first or second round picks.
Jermaine Cunningham didn’t exactly light the world on fire in 2010, but he was solid in both the run game and pass game, playing what is arguably the hardest position to play in the Patriots defense as a rookie. Look for a big jump from him in 2011.
Similar to the tight ends on the other side of the ball, the OLBs must be physical enough to hold their ground and defeat tackles, while also having the agility to jam and cover tight ends. So it’s not really a secret why the Pats haven’t been able to find the next Vrabel or McGinest yet. Those players don’t grow on trees.
The Pats were only in their 3-4 defense for less than half the snaps of 2010 as again, it’s really only used to stop the run. So it’s important to consider their nickel and dime defenses when considering what personnel to add.
The problem with the sub defenses arose again from their lack of versatility in the defensive front seven. Because their sub package lineman like Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and later Landon Cohen were much more suited for pass rush the Pats were often victimized by sub runs. Of course the injuries to Wright and Pryor magnified the problem. And a player like Ty Warren would’ve been a big help in those regards. Let’s remember Vince Wilfork wasn’t a three down lineman until this year.
The other problem with so much specialization is that it hurts how much disguise you can do. If TBC was in the game, teams knew the Pats were less prepared to stop the run. If Rob Ninkovich was in they knew the Pats were thinking run.
One area of specialization that I would like to touch on is that of the DPR (designated pass rusher). When most people say the Pats need to address OLB in the draft what they’re really talking about is a DPR. They want someone who’s sole job is to get after the quarterback.
This year, with so many draft picks I think BB should really consider spending a high pick on someone who might not have the coverage skills yet to play OLB, but is relentless getting after the quarterback.
When you look at the DPRs from 2010 you had Cunningham, Shawn Crable, then finally Eric Moore. Tully Banta-Cain could fall into this category as well, though the others stayed only in that role when they had it (cunningham obviously moved on the playing some 3-4 OLB). Hand-down as a left defensive end in nickel and dime packages. We all know the Patriots struggles with getting after the quarterback, I think the time is now to address this spot once and for all.
So as you begin to read mock drafts and research the draft take all this into consideration. Think about everything that a potential player will do for the Patriots. Will he just be a DPR, or is he a four down player like Devin McCourty?
This draft is an important one. As I’ve said since last year the 2011 draft will be a huge part of setting up another dynastic run.
It’s seems hard to believe it was only a few short years ago when the buzz words that surrounded the Patriots defense were “old and slow”. In a mere two seasons it’s been transformed into a single lazy phrase “where’s the pass rush going to come from?”.
Just about anywhere you look at an NFL season preview the number one issue mentioned for the Patriots will be finding someone to get after the quarterback. That’s why most mock drafts had the Pats taking Brandon Graham or Jerry Hughes. I’ll admit I was one person banging the Hughes drum myself.
But lately what all the “pundits” are really saying is that the Patriots don’t have Demarcus Ware or Jerome Harrison or Shaune Merriman (barf) and thus will be unable to generate pressure on the QB.
First let’s address something once and for all, and I’d like everyone to write this down. Read it. Think about it. Read it again.
The Patriots do not run a 1-gap attacking defense like the Jets and Steelers.
Yes they are both 3-4 base defenses, but that is where the similarities end. So it’s time to put pipe dreams of drafting players like Hughes and Graham to rest. They do not fit in New England and are not the kind of players that Bill Belichick is looking for.
For better or worse, the Patriots look for versatile players, who are smart, always in position and play tough.
As the young secondary improves, it will also help give pass rushers extra seconds to get to the QB. I am a firm believer in allowing young players time to develop and I believe the Patriots have many young options who will have ample opportunity to shine.
Does the Pass Rush in 2010 need to be better that it was in 2009? Absolutely. But just because they did not acquire a one-trick pony pass rusher doesn’t mean much. Pressuring the quarterback is rarely as easy as just adding one player and you’re all set. It’s a function of team defense, something that the Patriots are excellent at.