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High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

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If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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Week 12 Scouting Report: The New York Jets

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The Patriots handled San Francisco about as well as we all hoped they would. The defense redeemed themselves in a pretty solid overall performance and the offense proved they could be just as intimidating sans Gronk and Chris Hogan. Now, here might be where the trap game comes. The Jets, while only having won three games, should not be overlooked. No team in the NFL is a gimme but this one might look pretty tempting. There is something about an away division game that could make for a more exciting game than Pats Nation may be comfortable with.

Here’s everything you need to know about the New York Jets, aka, “The Team of Many QBs (none of which are good).”

Week 12 at New York Jets

Sunday November 27

4:25 pm EST, CBS

High 40’s, 20% chance of rain, 9 mph winds

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Pats Posits: Winning in the Rain

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My second Pats Pilgrimage of the season was a brilliant-though-wet success, raising my record at games attended to 12-3 since 2006. I am always surprised by how many Patriots fans show up for away games and this one was close to 2014’s in San Diego. There’s nothing quite like the pure joy of passionate Pats fans assembling on the road to cheer our favorite team on.

It was clear we were in Foxboro west from the moment arrival.

First I was accosted on the BART after landing by an airport employee who had been waiting 16 years for Tom Brady to play in his home city. He was more fired up that I was! From that point there were just Patriots fans every where you looked and by the time we got to the stadium it looked like they outnumbered the 49ers fans.

When Brady came out for warmups the stadium exploded. Every section he walked by erupted in cheers, and during the game there were multiple “Brady” chants throughout. I’ve had two amazing game experiences this season that were just loaded with Brady love.

The game itself seemed like a no-win situation outside of a dominating blow out and really, that’s pretty much what we got. I know there were some things that didn’t look great at times and Matthew Slater got hurt, but overall things are progressing and the Pats are in the driver’s seat in the AFC.

More on a great weekend with family and Pats fans and another Patriots win in the Posits…

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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals

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Patriots Cardinals GameplanThe long cold offseason is finally over. Patriots football is back this Sunday as the Pats travel to Arizona and face a stiff test from a Cardinals team that was one of the best in the NFC last season.

Of course the center of the media coverage is Jimmy Garoppolo, embarking on the first of his four game 2016 tour. Garoppolo was just okay this preseason, but didn’t have a turnover, and that might be the most important key to success for him over this first quarter of the season.

While everyone’s talking about Garoppolo — how he really feels about Tom Brady, how he feels about Tom Brady having an enormous banner hanging over the home stadium, how he feels about Tom Brady not being around to give him advice — what I’m most interested in this weekend is the Patriots defense.

Simply put, they are stacked. And if Jimmy gives them the chance, they can win every one of these four games.

Here’s the gameplan for the Cardinals…

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Patriots vs. Jets All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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Third down defense was obviously the headline in this one so today we’re just going to take a closer look at some of the more interesting ones. The Jets converted 8-of-14 third downs and really, that’s why this was a ballgame. 

It was frustrating because they executed the early-down gameplan so well. The run defense was truly impressive and that bodes well for the defense long term. But really, pass rush on third down is vital and in this game it was virtually non-existent.

Couple that with some softer man coverage and the Jets were picking up first downs on numerous 3rd-and-longs.

Let’s review the damage…

1. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 24 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 2 Man. Decker motions across formation then runs an in cut across the open flat. Pats rush 3, with Hightower spying Fitzpatrick. Throw comes in rhythm as Easley/Nink are held up. If Hightower drops a bit he might’ve take this throw away, as the MOF is wide open. Butler stumbles at Decker’s stem, and can’t recover.

VERDICT: Quick play, Butler needed better patience as Decker reached the stem of his route. But knowing the MOF was open he should’ve anticipated it was an in cut.

2. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 1 Man. Butler is off Decker but steps toward him at the snap to get a jam but misses and is in recovery mode the rest of the down. Decker stops and turns, blocking Butler out with his size. This time it’s a traditional pass rush with Collins/Hightower dropping into the flat.  Pocket holds just long enough.

VERDICT: Needed more disruption from one of the front four as Collins/Hightower dropping out did nothing to confuse anyone. That’s where you need Easley to truck someone. Still, Butler was sloppy with his technique and couldn’t recover. Tough gamble on the jam, if he had gotten a hand on Decker the timing might’ve been thrown off.

3. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 2 at the Pats 2. Incomplete. STOP!!

Pats in goalline, the Jets try to iso Chung on tight end Cumberland. Probably a touchdown most times, but Chung might’ve gotten a hand in there. Tough to tell from the All-22 view. Pats hold for a field goal.

VERDICT: Get ready for more of these kind of targets, Chung.

4. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 4, Decker 17 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man. Butler is playing off and this time Decker beats him with an out route. Pats send 6 this time but everyone is picked up and Fitzpatrick makes a quick and perfect throw. 

VERDICT: Every pass rusher is blocked one-on-one and Butler’s coverage is just soft enough for Fitz to throw it in there.

5. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 10, Kerley 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man as Jets run a sort of screen pass into the middle of the defense. Kerley cuts in, Coleman gets picked (probably illegally) and then Fitzpatrick sidearms it to Kerley who makes his way through the middle of the field avoiding tackles from Flowers and Chandler Jones.

VERDICT: Nice play design by the Jets to attack the vacated middle of the field. Perhaps a little better awareness from the defensive line could’ve stopped him short, but no one had a clean shot.

I’d just like to pause here to point out we just ended the first quarter and the Jets have already picked up four of five third downs and three of those were from 3rd&10. Unacceptable and really set a crappy tone for the game.

6. 2Q, Jets 10-3, Jets 3rd & 2, Incomplete.

The Pats are in Cover-1 Man and have six in the box, rushing four then dropping out Ninkovich and Hightower. It looks like Jamie Collins gets a hand on the pass, but Logan Ryan has a solid jam and Marshall can never get going anyway.

VERDICT: Keep up the solid jams.

7. 2Q, Tied at 10, Jets 3rd & 8, Decker 7 yards. PUNT!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as the Jets have a bunch formation to the right. Butler seems leans the wrong way and that’s more than enough for Decker on the out route. Pressure is right there should the throw not be there but it is.

VERDICT: Butler just didn’t seem to close ground as quickly as we’ve seen in the past and took some false steps that he couldn’t recover from. Still, he tackled well enough and held the Jets a yard short.

8. 2Q, Pats 13-10, Jets 3rd & 3, Fitzpatrick sacked by Collins. PUNT!

Pats in Cover 1-Man with the Jets having two stacked receivers on either side of the formation. Hightower makes this play by blitzing from his off-line linebacker spot and pancaking Mangold into Fitzpatrick’s feet just as he sets. Collins shows good patience and finishes Fitz off as he tried to scramble.

VERDICT: Someone made a play on third down and they’re off the field. Shocker.

9. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Smith 7 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as Smith runs a drag across the field and Fitzpatrick finds him off his back foot at the last second. This one was close as you can see from the pic below. Easley does a good job and that in turn opens things up for Ninkovich as well. Just a half a second too slow or else this one is a sack, and an ugly one.

VERDICT: Almost doesn’t count in pass rushing. Tough play for Coleman navigating all the traffic.

10. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 5, Marshall 13 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man, Jets motion Marshall out of the backfield, Ryan gets hands on him but doesn’t disrupt him. No pressure on Fitzpatrick.

VERDICT: Jets could make this all day with that kind of pocket and he could’ve throw to Kerley as well in the flat.

11. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Decker 23 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man, Decker goes in motion and gets knocked off course by both Butler and Chandler Jones off the snap. Still he recovers and runs a post. Fitzpatrick is unpressured (Pats only rushed 3) and sticks a perfect pass in there. Huge play.

VERDICT: Even with Hightower and Chandler lurking in passing zones Fitzpatrick still found Decker who got back on course quicker than Butler did after the jam at the line.

12. 4Q, Jets 17-16, Jets 3rd & 7 from NE12, INCOMPLETE! 

The third down stop that saved the game, this was a critical one. Pats are in a Cover-2 Man and rush 4. Marshall seemed to push Logan Ryan away and that in turn seemed to unsettle him for the back shoulder throw. Probably should’ve been a touchdown, but there was a bit of pressure coming with Hightower.

VERDICT: Not great, but the Pats kept the points gap manageable. 

Overall I think the headline for all these third down mostly-failures was just no one making plays up front. The only disruption caused by anyone was one Hightower blitz. Otherwise there was limited disruption. 

Coverage-wise Butler seemed to lack his usual anticipation and burst. I think this might’ve been his flattest game this season and he paid the price for it. 

Still, the Pats won the war and their gameplan was generally effective. If they could’ve just gotten off the field on a couple more third downs their margin of victory would’ve been certainly higher.

Hump Day Pats Posits

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Plenty to talk about here on the bye week as we reset a bit. It’s a weird season because there’s not much to complain about yet and that has the Mazz’s and Volin’s of the world floundering. (Seriously Volin didn’t like the defensive gameplan that gave up 10 points that could entirely be connected to one blown play and two third-down stops that were negated by a fumble and a penalty.)

Personally I think you can be a homer and support your team but still be critical of their performances. And there’s more to be a fan/blogger etc. than being critical… there’s understanding the schemes and how the coaches are attacking and defending. So while there hasn’t been a Kansas City game for everyone to freak out about there’s still plenty to analyze.

First, there’s been plenty of can the Pats go 16-0 and as I said earlier this week I really don’t want to. I think it makes it harder to win the Super Bowl and I’d prefer to have a motivating loss that exposes some weaknesses and ignites a fire for the team down the stretch.

Again, the NFL season is as much about attrition as anything else. And unfortunately the chances are slim that the Patriots are still as robust as they are right now. 

And yeah, the schedule looks manageable but think about all the losses or near losses to inferior teams over the years. The 2004 team’s loss to Miami sticks out. Not to mention near losses in 2013 to the Browns and Texans. And the Pats finish at Jets/at Dolphins. Those places are never a slam dunk regardless of what the teams are playing for.

So you won’t hear much 16-0 talk around here. We’ve been there, done that and all it taught us was that it’s only the Super Bowl that matters.

I continue to be impressed by Jordan Richards
 in his limited duty against the Jags.  Yeah, Mazz thinks you can’t learn anything from a game like last weekend’s but I think Richards is a prime example of learning something. He reminds me a lot of Patrick Chung
 with his aggressiveness, but the big question is whether or not he has the speed to play on the back end to bump Harmon. We could be seeing more and more of him.

Speaking of rookies, can you believe we’re still waiting on Trey Flowers
 to make his debut? He was possibly the best rookie in the preseason  but has been under wraps the first three weeks. Defensive end depth is really good right now but sooner or later they have to get his feet wet and I’m excited to see what he can do.

My thoughts keep drifting to Dominique Easley
 and just how much he could elevate this defense. His burst off the snap is back and he’s flashing the kind of disruption I’ve been dreaming of since this blog started in 2010. But what has me wondering is how to truly harness his potential. They had him in his best spot – three technique – vs. the Jags, but his burst seems most effective not when it’s clearly a passing down but when the OL is trying to stunt. That opens the gaps for him and he totally screws their entire operation up. But when he’s asked to go one-on-one and the OL gets set it seems like Easley has trouble getting free and getting to the quarterback. That could change and he’s technically still green, but it’s an area to focus on in the coming weeks.

Malcom Brown has been somewhat underwhelming out of the gate, not that it’s a cause for major concern because he has made a couple plays and looked strong in spurts, but I’d like to see a splash play sooner than later from him.

The scary thing for the rest of the NFL is how well the Pats’ drafts since 2010 have turned out. They’re on a crazy roll and the trio of Andrews-Mason-Jackson is exactly what the Hoodie ordered this year. 

New podcast coming tonight as well as a some All-22 Offensive thoughts from the Jags game. And also Frenz and I will be reuniting for a podcast this weekend. Looking forward to talking to my old podmate!

Bill Belichick Press Conference Transcript

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Bill Belichick Press Conference Transcript

A little defensive X and O nerdery from BB’s presser today. This time on the difference between the Big Nickel and Regular Nickel defenses.

Q: What’s the biggest difference scheme-wise between a big nickel, three safety secondary and a standard situation with a nickel secondary where you have two safeties and multiple corners?

BB: I would say the ability of that fifth defensive back, that third safety vs. the third corner, what the skills of that player are and what you’re playing against.

Q: Do you see less of the big nickel because of the passing games, just as a simple generalization?

BB: Again, I think it depends on the team and it depends on the player. Like the Giants, they really play the third safety. We’ve played it that way with [Patrick] Chung in the past. I think if you have a true third slot receiver, a guy like whoever it is, whether it’s [Wes] Welker or [Davone] Bess or [Jeremy] Kerley or whoever you happen to be playing, then it’s who you want matched up against that guy and what your options are, who you want to put on him. Running game can factor into that. Again, who that player is, sometimes that – like a bigger slot receiver or is it a smaller, quicker guy? Is it 12 personnel, is it two tight ends and that inside receiver is more of a tight end type player. And who are your players, who are you talking about putting on them relative to the matchup? Some teams like to put the same guy in there and do everything with one guy and then there’s continuity to the defense. Other teams like to match up to try to get the player they want matched up against the other team’s guy that he’s going to be facing. It depends, there are a lot of variables.