Second-Guessing My Patriots Draft Predictions

With the draft just a few days away and as I settle with my Top-50 board, mock draft and general feeling of where the Patriots will attack this draft, I find myself wondering where the Pats might zag on my zig.

The first four picks, back-to-back in both the second and third rounds, are vital, especially without a first round pick this year. My four positions that I think they’ll address are 1. Running Back 2. Defensive Line 3. Offensive Tackle and 4. Wide Receiver. That’s the order of likelihood I think they’ll draft those positions, not the order of need.

I think a defensive tackle will fall to them in the second round, but I am unsure if they’ll ignore penetrating three techniques as much as I predicted they will. I went with Austin Johnson, who seems to fit the role of Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in the scheme. Both of those vets are free agents next year. But names like Sheldon Day, who is more like Dominique Easley than a monster in the middle.

Now, I’m second-guessing that I should’ve gone in that direction, toward the three-techniques, despite Mike Reiss’ report a couple weeks ago that the he heard the Pats were getting away from that style of defensive tackle after a brief experiment with them. I’m conflicted about that.

After all, I was Mr. Interior Rush Drum Banger circa 2010. Maybe Easley has me spooked. I don’t know. I do think they’re limited in how much they can play in this defense, and that Malcom Brown is versatile enough to play three downs. That will leave a Ninkovich-Brown-Sheard-Long best pass rush front, hopefully with Trey Flowers contributing early and emerging later as solid rotational player. Still not sure how Geneo Grissom fits in either. But there’s a ton of depth at defensive end and they can cover the role Easley was being used for, although it would make the front a bit lighter.

A lot of people disliked my offensive tackle pick, but I still think they should hit that position early with an athletic right tackle-of-the-future. The main positional conflict was with those wanting a wide receiver. As much as I tried to find one, I couldn’t find a wide receiver I really loved and felt checks all the boxes for the Pats, except for Sterling Shepard.

There certainly were guys with the right traits, but all had some sort of red flag, or just didn’t jump off the tape to me. I think wide receiver is still the position where fanalysts try to jam talent down our throats, when we’ve discussed time and again how hard it is for a wide receiver in this system. I like guys like Leontae Carroo and Braxton Miller, I just don’t feel great about them picking things up immediately.

Still, I’d love to see them take a chance on a wide receiver early, I just believe the talent and value in the late-second round is far better at offensive and defensive tackle, and those positions are far more vital to the long-term health of the franchise. Many want a big X-receiver type, but I’m more than fine with a “get open quick” type to help manage Edelman and Amendola’s wear and tear a bit.

Finally, I feel good about my view of the running back spot. I went with Arkansas’ Alex Collins, but I could see any of this group – Jonathan Williams, Kenneth Dixon and Devontae Booker — fitting in well with the need, which I see as an early down pounder. What would surprise me would be if the Pats targeted more of a receiving back.

There’s plenty of groupthink picks out there too by all us Pats pundits. Keenan Reynolds, Dan Vitale and Daniel Braverman are just a few that almost everyone has connected to the Pats at some point.

It’s a big week and Friday and Saturday should be a lot of fun. As always, I’ll be surprised if I’m not surprised at least a couple time by who the Pats take. You can bet your money at least one of the picks will be a player none of us have heard of or studied. That’s what makes it fun.

Despite their lack of a first round pick, the Patriots should be able to improve their team and fill a number of holes.