Two weeks from today, the New England Patriots will take the field in Arizona to face the Cardinals and get their 2016 campaign under way. Yes, the excitement is palpable.
As I touched on in the Posits after the game, I kind of find it funny how there’s a sizable portion of the fanbase, fanned by many voices in the local media, freaking out about Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s four games people. The Patriots season will not be lost or broken in those four games unless there’s a season-ending injury to someone important.
Garoppolo won’t be perfect, but he should play safe enough to keep every game winnable. Yes, the defenses he’ll face are all pretty good. But you also have to like how the Patriots’ defense matches up with the opposing offenses. And let’s remember the Pats have started 2-2 in two of the last four seasons, WITH BRADY.
All I really care about is the team that we’ll take into the playoffs, so all this freaking out about Garoppolo seems pointless. And again, if he doesn’t turn the ball over, the Pats will have a chance to win every game.
Here’s some holdover thoughts after re-watching Panthers game…
— PFF had Vincent Valentine rated the second-best defender on the Patriots for the game and I found that to be a head scratcher. Look, Valentine certainly has potential but I think he’s still a year away. What you look for from the interior defensive tackles who are two-gapping is that they hold their ground and stay square to the line of scrimmage. Belichick calls it “building the wall”. Valentine struggled with this, especially in the first half. He was consistently turned and pushed aside, but often ended up making plays simply because he’s so big. And yes, he had some good plays but his overall body of work left me thinking he looks like a big rookie who needs time. I do think he’s on the roster but I think he’ll be a minor rotational piece until he’s better able to fully harness his size.
— I don’t use a lot of PFF’s stats here, but I do respect them as part of the big picture of analysis. It’s just my personal preference to write about what I see and not just throw their numbers out to the readers. You want their stats, go to their site. Everyone sees the game differently so I can handle it when their view of performance is different than my own, but where I run into problems with them is when a scheme isn’t taken into account, especially when tackles are asked to two-gap. It’s a thankless job and often translates into low PFF grades. Also is true when the defense soft-rushes to keep mobile quarterbacks in the pocket. That means less pressure and low pass rush grades when pass rush isn’t really telling the whole story.
— Malcom Brown was dominant two-gapping against the Panthers. He really looked like Vince Wilfork, not giving an inch, getting his hands on his blocker then shedding him and making plays. He’s taken significant steps forward this preseason and I’m excited to see the season he puts together.
— Congrats to Jonathan Freeny on his two-year extension. There’s no secret I’m not the biggest Freeny fan on the field and the reasons were once again on display against he Panthers, especially on one long run where Freeny failed to fill his hole. I viewed upgrading Freeny as a top goal for last offseason and that’s essentially what getting McClellin did. But if any of the top three linebackers go down, Freeny’s likely back in there. I was scratching my head at the extension until Belichick’s quote came out about what a model citizen he is off the field. That explains it and it reminds me somewhat of Jerod Mayo — a player who is just so good off-the-field that you overlook any shortcomings he has on it. Granted Freeny’s are a lot more short coming than Mayo’s were but it shows how much the Patriots value that. Still, if Freeny plays a significant role on defense this season it won’t be pretty.
— Despite a breakdown in pass protection that allowed a sack, Nate Solder looked really strong in the run game to me, especially on one Gaffney sweep where Solder cleared the way around the edge. The Pats really missed his athleticism in the run game last season. There just isn’t another tackle on the offense who can move like him.
— Seems like some of us are taking it for granted but wow does Chris Hogan look like he fits right into the offense. The number of free agent with receivers who look lost in New England is long but Hogan has looked like a Patriots receiver immediately. So pumped to see the Brady-Lewis-Gronk-Bennet-Edelman-Hogan offense someday. Hopefully. If they go into the playoffs with that group, look out.
— I don’t really see a roster spot coming down to Tyler Gaffney or DJ Foster, they’re different roles. If anything it’s Foster vs. White and I can’t lie I thought Foster looked a little more explosive to me than White. Gaffney’s performance did nothing to cement his status. He shows flashes. I just don’t know what happens with him. But if he gets cut I don’t think it’s because Foster is going to play the early-down role Gaffney would.
— I don’t get the enfatuation many have with James White. I thought the Panthers game was the perfect example of how one-dimensional he is. And when he isn’t busting off long runs off screens he’s pretty ineffective. He certainly struggled in pass blocking, though any running back blocking that Panthers front seven is in for a major test. He is what he is — a screen back. And I think DJ Foster might be more than a screen back.
— The more I think about it the more I look at Barkevious Mingo as playing a similar role to Jamie Collins. Collins didn’t really have a firm NFL position coming out of college either and the Pats slowly brought him along before he broke out in the 2013 playoffs against the Colts. Look for something similar for Mingo. He’s not going to be Collins, but he’s an athletic linebacker that they’ll experiment with in coverage and pass rushing. And you can’t minimize the fact that he plays a ton of special teams. He just won’t be an early-down defensive end for sure.
— Noticd plenty of zone coverage drops by Chris Long and Trey Flowers, a sign of how versatile both defenders are. Long, who I’ve got a huge football crush on right now, was always a straight-up hand-down defensive end with the Rams, and we hadn’t gotten a full sense of Flowers’ athleticism yet.
— The front seven will be so versatile, they can really do anything and that makes them incredibly unpredictable. I’ve been studying the Patriots defense with a microscope since 2008 and this is by far the most talent they’ve had in that period. It’s also the most excited I’ve been for the defense as a whole. 2014 was exciting for Revis/Browner but the front seven depth was worrisome. Now there’s depth everywhere and no holes.
I feel sorry for any Patriots fan who is anything but thrilled with this upcoming season. The only thing that can stop them are injuries. Really.
Sure, they might have some flat games early in the season, maybe lose a close one on the road late in the year, but we’ve seen this unfold the same way for the last 15 years. And it’s hard to remember a more talented Patriots team on paper. Even 2007 featured an “old and slow” defense that was near the end of the line.
This defense is just hitting it’s peak. And while the offense might lack the explosive downfield threat of a Randy Moss, there’s plenty of reasons to think this offense will be every bit as unstoppable with the additions of Bennett and Hogan.
Strap up. This is going to be a fun ride, just take the first four weeks with a grain of salt.
Can you explain from film study what Blount is doing better than Gaffney. Both have had good series; both have had series where they couldn’t get it going. I have no idea what role the blocking played in the relative success. I have been impressed with Gaffney’s quickness to the line and through the hole if it is there. Blount is more ponderous in his approach.
Yes, Blount is the veteran, but I think Gaffney is still growing. I’d keep them both, cut White and go with Foster.
Thanks for all the great work!
I think the loss of Develin last year was underrated. Blount always seems at his best later in the game when guys are a bit tired out. They are less inclined just jump in front of Blount. But yes, he can be a bit slow out of the backfield, but once he gets rolling he’s hard to stop. That’s why I think Blount is best served if there’s an early down guy, someone like Green-Ellis or Ridley that doesn’t lose yardage and will get you 3-4 at worst. Is Gaffney that guy? He’s shown flashes this preseason. Certainly Blount is the more proven back at this point, but if they continue to give Gaffney chances he could start to really emerge. Hard to tell what will happen, especially with plenty of other vet RBs about to come available this weekend. We’ll see how it all plays out.