Cassel celebrates a third quarter touchdown pass during their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday, Sept. 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
One of the common refrains you’ll hear with Tom Brady potentially sitting the first four games of the 2016 season is “well Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 in 2008, so Jimmy Garoppolo will be fine!” I agree to an extent, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dry and it’s worth taking putting that season into context and how different things will be in 2016.
We all remember that fateful opening game in 2008. The Pats were in white jerseys at home. Like Belichick’s SB42 way-too-short cutoff red hoodie something seemed off from the start. Then there were the big GU patches to honor Gene Upshaw that would forever make this game instantly recognizable. Brady hadn’t played at all in the preseason and Matt Cassel looked terrifyingly awful.
When Brady went down after Bernard Pollard dove into his knees then limped off the field, we knew it wasn’t good. Anyone who had watched the preseason thought we were dead meat with Cassel. But Cassel managed to put together a solid season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3693 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That included two fourth quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives.
But the problem, as Bill Belichick said himself in his episode of A Football Life, was that the Patriots could not beat the good teams in the AFC. Their only win over an AFC playoff team was in Miami, in a Wildcat revenge game. They lost to the Steelers, Chargers and Colts, the only three teams outside their division that they faced with winning records, not including a 9-7 Cardinals team that never got off the bus in Foxboro. They feasted on the terrible AFC and NFC West divisions.
Had the Patriots faced a more daunting schedule, we likely wouldn’t have the 11-5 argument to make.
Still, Cassel did far better than anyone would’ve expected based on his preseason. He had a veteran cast of weapons around him including Wes Welker in his prime, Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney. The defense however was at the end of the line. 2008 was their final gasp before the full turnover began the next offseason. Had Brady stayed healthy this probably would’ve been their downfall.
The 2016 Patriots are a little different. While they have a lot of veterans in place on offense, their defense is just hitting its prime. That’s what stands out to me most. The 2008 defense was not one that could singlehandedly win games. The 2016 should be.
Garoppolo also seems a far better fit for the Patriots’ offense at this stage. Simply put, he’s more talented than Cassel and his quick release should fit what the Patriots do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett extremely well. He also has some of the athleticism that Cassel displayed which gave teams used to facing the statue-esque Brady a new twist.
Garoppolo’s first TD pass.
Belichick and Josh McDaniels had to adjust on the fly when Brady went down. Now they have an entire training camp to cater the offense to Garoppolo’s strengths. This is vital because 2016’s schedule is far more daunting than 2008’s was. This is why the comparison is a hard one to make. There are six 2015 playoff teams on the docket this year, including two (Cardinals and Texans) which Garoppolo would have to face.
And the other two matchups against Miami and Buffalo feature defenses that would push even Brady to the limit. Luckily three of the first four are at home. That counts for a lot against defenses that love to blitz.
Garoppolo should be ready for this. Most quarterbacks are thrust into the fire long before they’ve had a chance to apprentice for two seasons under a Hall of Fame quarterback. And if the Patriots are ever going to be able to get something for Garoppolo, now is the time to showcase him.
Cassel’s 2008 has some similarities, but he was a less-talented player facing less-talented teams. He performed as you’d expect a Belichick-prepared player would, and probably would’ve made some noise in the playoffs had the Jets just beaten the Dolphins in Week 17, allowing the Pats in.
It’s a tall order for Garoppolo facing four very good defenses, but should be better prepared than Cassel was with all this time to prepare. I have no doubt Belichick will have Garoppolo ready to go with a plan that suits his strengths, which just happen to be very similar strengths to Brady’s.
And in the long run, getting a look at Garoppolo now is really what’s best for the Patriots organization.