Well this about sums it up…
2014
Pats Posits: September Stinker Now Out of Way?
Like I usually do with a loss, I like to go back and take a closer look immediately and then put it behind us. What can you say about this game? It was pretty much like all season openers go, especially in the division.
We all remember wins over the Bills in 2009 and 2013 that were just about miracles, and 2009 was at home. Or how about the 2012 loss at home to the Cardinals who wouldn’t win another road game all year.
The month of September is always good for at least one Pats stinker and let’s hope this one was it. And really, this could’ve very well been the toughest divisional game they’ll play all year.
The September stinker might tell you where some of the team’s weaknesses are right now, but the result won’t tell you much about where this team will be at the end of the season.
One loss and a lot of the pundits want to change the scheme or criticize the moves of the offseason. The truth is this was just a sloppy football game in tough conditions, but there was plenty to like about this team and plenty to build on.
Give me sound tackling and a few less avoidable penalties and this is a different game.
Here are some things that stuck out to me on the rewatch:
Easley played up and down the left side of the defensive line, from 0-technique to 3- and 5- technique, including the only DT on pass rush third down package. At least until Buchanan comes back it seems like he’s their top DPR. Getting Chris Jones back should help manage some of his snaps. But I saw good explosion and disruption from him considering this was his first game action in over a year and first NFL game. I continue to be excited about what he’ll do.
Plenty of 34/43 talk today, but it’s all semantics and the same guys playing no matter if they are standing or have a hand in the dirt. The thing to analyze is where those guys are playing. Chandler Jones at 5-tech is questionable, but he showed he can get to the QB from that spot, he just can’t hit them in the head.
The schematic change was Ninkovich at SOLB and Hightower at WOLB in more of a pass rush role. Ninkovich was coming off in sub-packages and only played 35 of 74 snaps. Is this more a statement about Ninkovich or Hightower? I’m not sure. But Hightower flashed a few times in this new role despite some sizable errors as well.
Solder, Vollmer, Devey, Cannon – they were all bad and sometimes they were beat on simple stunts that should not be a problem to pick up. That goes to communication and experience, both of which were lacking with some many guys rotating and changing positions. They need to find what works and stick with it.
I don’t think there is any question Stork gets a shot at center once he’s healthy. All options must be on the table. I think Devey was out of his league yesterday.
I have my concerns that Mayo is going to struggle moving back inside like we saw in 2009. He seemed less effective having to get off blocks, something the entire defense struggled with. Again, that’s something that will be better as conditioning and experience improve.
I like Joe Vellano’s hustle but he cannot hold the point of attack. The Wilfork/Siliga combo inside is intriguing in base but they’re going to have to be better stopping the run from their sub defense.
Speaking of Siliga, I loved the burst and strength I saw out of him. Once he gets that cast off he should be even more effective, but I thought he was a bright spot.
There was a rotating door at safety, using Arrington and Ryan in over-the-top coverage. McCourty the FS. Harmon (4 snaps only), Chung (47 snaps) in box, even Wilson (22 snaps) all saw time. I think this is BB using his smarter corners in off coverage where they can pattern read and jump routes. The traditional strong safety is a dying breed.
Pats were in “base” 42% of the snaps. They’ve been between 31-40% the last four seasons. It would seem like they’re trying to go back toward more base, at least after one game (which admittedly could be an outlier).
Revis should’ve had a pass defended on the touchdown he gave up. Great play by receiver to hold on to ball. Revis was smooth and in position all afternoon. Hard to find much fault with him, sometime the other team just make great plays to beat great players.
Dennard/Butler gave up some catches, but were feisty and right there. It would appear that Dennard is now firmly over Arrington as an outside corner. Let’s hope he stays healthy.
There were blown tackles everywhere, a sign of how much less tackling there is in training camp. It’s something that will be fixed so I’m not too worried. It was just so frustrating to see guys almost stopped in the backfield only to squirm out of the tackle and pick up positive (and one time scoring) yardage.
LaFell had a bad game but it’s tough to be the new receiver when the QB isn’t trusting the protection. The Pats severely lacked what he and Dobson should be bringing to the party.
Where was Amendola? This is something to monitor. For whatever reason it seems like Brady just doesn’t find him.
I thought the Pats hid Chung in coverage pretty well. Clearly he brings an attitude and some physicality. It seems almost an attempt to offset some of the loss of Brandon Spikes.
The simplest criticism: Get off blocks, make tackles. Everyone on defense struggled to disengage, especially in the run game. And even when they did, they tended to miss the tackle.
It’s not what anyone wants to hear because it’s not sexy, but everyone just needs to play better. They’re all capable of getting off blocks and wrapping up their tackles, they just weren’t prepared to do it in Miami for whatever reason.
The run defense down the middle will continue to be a spot to watch as Jamie Collins is athletic in space but is not a downhill presence in the run game. He also looked out of gas at the end of the game when the Pats gave up the last long touchdown drive.
As for the offense, the line has to be better. There’s still a lot of talent there and I expect this game to be a good kick in the pants that they need.
Do you think this years offense with be a mix of the last couple of seasons, in ’11 they used two tightends, ’12 they used more one tightend sets due to injuries with gronk and hernandez, then last year they did more wide receiver sets. I feel like they will do all of these plus the new wrinkle of vereen/white out of backfield. What do you think they will do on offense this year?
I think that the offense is as much as a product of what they have and what they think they do well as it is the overall philosophy.
LaFell, Wright and White are the new pieces and I think each will have their own impact. LaFell is a big receiver who is somewhat Dobson insurance, but also provides another big body outside. He could be valuable in the red zone.
The Pats never had a chance to replace Hernandez last year and that’s just what role Wright will play in the offense. How quickly will he pick the offense up? He seems like a perfect fit and has everything the Pats want for that position, but developing trust with Tom Brady isn’t always that easy. Still, I think Wright has the goods.
The Vereen/White backfield is interesting and yet another way to stress the defense.
Will the Pats’ offense ever settle into a primary set of five weapons this season? I don’t know the answer at this point, but if everyone stays healthy I think there’s going to be more variety than we’ve ever seen from them.
It will just depend on the matchups and who gets hot because there is some redundancy as well between Edelman/Amendola, LaFell/Dobson, Vereen/White.
10 Predictions for the New England Patriots 2014 Season | Bleacher Report
10 Predictions for the New England Patriots 2014 Season | Bleacher Report
Very solid predictions from Mr. Frenz.
2014 Preview: New England Patriots | ProFootballFocus.com
2014 Preview: New England Patriots | ProFootballFocus.com
Accurate preview, which are becoming rarer and rarer these days. Once again Bill Belichick has put together a team with a frontline as strong as any in the NFL. IF they stay healthy it’s hard not to see them in the AFC Championship and hopefully hosting it. That could be determined on 11/2 against the Broncos.
Which ten patriots need/will have a breakout season and why did you pick then
Ten’s a lot but let’s take a stab at it because there are certainly a handful of players that need big years to take the Pats to the next level.
1. Jamie Collins – Let’s just get him out of the way first because he’s everyone’s breakout player this year. Collins is what every current NFL team needs, super athletic linebackers who can deal with the ever-growing array of big tight ends and slot receivers (usually outside receivers lining up in the slot). Collins very well could find himself a prototype the rest of the league tries to fill this year. I expect him to do just about everything – coverage, blitzing, stopping the run.
2. Dominique Easley – Simply put, the Patriots haven’t had an interior rusher close to Easley since Mike Wright circa early 2010. This is another necessary player for a modern NFL team – chaos causer inside. You can get by with space eaters but if you can’t collapse the pocket just about every QB in the league will step up and complete a pass. Easley has the chance to make the entire front seven better on passing downs, something they desperately need, especially on third down.
3.Devin McCourty – Some might say he broke out last year, but now with this deep secondary around him and quality pass rushers in front of him, McCourty should cement his place as a top back end safety this season.
4. Sealver Siliga – Maybe this is a little too bold, but I think there’s a chance that Siliga eats into a lot of Wilfork’s traditional snaps this year. He really needs to if we’re going to get a few more years out of Wilfork. Siliga was impressive in camp before getting injured. But he has the perfect body type for the middle of this defense and I think he will prove he’s Wilfork’s heir apparent this season.
5. Alfonzo Dennard – Despite the presence of Brandon Browner I still think Dennard will see plenty of snaps this year, and with Revis/Browner/Arrington/McCourty in the secondary, Dennard should be a frequent target of the opposition. He’s my favorite to lead the team in interceptions this season.
6. Bryan Stork – Maybe this is a pick made more with my heart than my head but Stork could singlehandedly improve the offensive line in the middle – something it badly needs. Stork has the size, strength and tenacity to deal with the bevy of interior rushers the Pats will face this season. I think he overtakes Ryan Wendell by November and doesn’t give up the position for the next 5-10 years.
7. Aaron Dobson – It was a small sample size but seeing Dobson’s size and speed in the final preseason game has me excited about his prospects this season. If he can truly become the field-stretch (aka deeeeeep threat) the Pats need, the Pats offense could hit 2007 level.
8. Shane Vereen – It’s all about health. If he stays healthy Vereen will enter the conversation as the top pass-catching back in the NFL.
9. Tim Wright – Wright is a perfect fit for this offense and it was immediately clear why the Pats coveted him. Defenses will have to pick their poison with the Pats’ offense, but I think Wright could be the guy that causes the most matchup problems, just like Hernandez did.
10. Tom Brady – He wasn’t elite last year, right? This year he’ll be elite.
Patriots Week 1 Kickoff: Miami Dolphins
Last Meeting(s): The Patriots and Dolphins had two closely-fought battles last season. In the first meeting in Week 8, the Dolphins raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead in Foxboro. The Patriots clawed their way back in to take a 27-17. The Dolphins had a comeback of their own in Week 15, intercepting Tom Brady in the end zone to preserve a 24-20 win.
Early Outlook: Between the heat in Miami, the usual closeness of Week 1 divisional games, and the history of close games last season between these two teams, it’s hard to think this game won’t go down to the very end.
Notes:
Miami is looking to push the pace on offense, something the Patriots defense should be well-versed in after facing their own offense and the Eagles’ this preseason.
The strength of the Dolphins pass rush is on the edges with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, and that matches up well with the Patriots’ strength at tackle. The interior of the Pats offensive line won’t get that stiff of an opening test.
Miami’s feisty cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Brent Grimes could be targets to attack with bigger receivers like Dobson, LaFell and Wright.
The Dolphins’ linebackers move well and should be a good matchup for Rob Gronkowski, assuming he plays as BB threw some cold water on that this morning. Getting those LBs matched up on Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola will be a goal.
Miami’s receivers should put the Pats’ talented secondary to the test immediately. Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Brian Hartline might get the man-on-man matchup throughout the game. Revis-on-Hartline, with Dennard-on-Wallace with McCourty help over top and Arrington-on-Gibson makes sense.
Rookie Ja’Juan James will start at right tackle for the Phins, expect him to get a rotating combination of pass rushers from Chandler Jones to Rob Ninkovich and perhaps even Dominique Easley. This will include the interior of Miami’s line as well. If there’s a recurring theme of Dolphins losses, it’s Tannehill taking a lot of sacks.
Charles Clay is a Patriots-esque weapon and I expect to see plenty of Jamie Collins in coverage on him.
My five points of emphasis will be coming Friday and we’ll have more links to matchup articles throughout the week as other good takes pop up.