The NFL released the 2016 schedule today and the Patriots are in for a tough schedule against some of the best teams in the league from both conferences. Here’s a game-by-game breakdown.
Week 1: Sunday, 9/11, 8:30pm at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday Night Football): The Pats open the season with a return to the site of their Super Bowl 49 win to take on the tough Cardinals in a game that could’ve been a Super Bowl matchup last year. The Cardinals have all the pieces needed to contend again, plus Chandler Jones now, and, playing at home, they should come at the Patriots full-force on both sides of the ball. This is a fascinating matchup between two of the most forward-thinking and innovative teams in the league. What it might ultimately boil down to is how well Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are able to keep last year’s magic going. At least the magic that was happening before the playoffs.
Week 2: Sunday, 9/18, 1pm vs. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are once again in transition, firing Joe Philbin this offseason and replacing him with Adam Gase. Miami’s defensive line is once against fearsome, but can they put it all together? That’s always the question. They showed good fight in beating the Patriots in Week 17 last year. Miami always seems to be a tough place to play for the Pats, even when they don’t have great season. Thank Hoodie this one isn’t in Miami and we’re saving that trip for the end of the season when heat won’t be a factor.
Week 3: Thursday, 9/22, 8:25pm vs. Houston Texans: A quick turnaround in Week 3 gives the Pats an early Thursday night game, which at this point in the season is pretty manageable. With Brock Osweiler in the mix, the Texans now have (or at least hope to have) the piece they were missing last year — a legit quarterback. The talent on the Texans’ roster is obvious, led by JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. Coming to New England will be a huge test for the young Texans, one that they surely understand and are likely to embrace. The Pats have had their way with Houston ever since losing to them in 2009 (and losing Wes Welker in the process), this will be a chance for Houston to make a statement and step into the realm of the AFC contenders. Will the Texans be finding their stride this early in the season? I’m not convinced.
Week 4: Sunday, 10/2, 1pm, vs. Buffalo Bills: It’s a love/hate relationship with Rex Ryan. The Pats’ games with him are always entertaining, at least off the field before the game begins. The Bills will be looking for Tyrod Taylor to build on a breakout 2015 season and if he can get a full season from stud receiver Sammy Watkins that will certainly help. The Bills are scrappy and have the pieces to knock off the Pats. But having the pieces and doing it, especially in New England, are two hugely different things.
Week 5: Sunday, 10/9 at 1pm at Cleveland Browns: The Browns didn’t look much better on paper when they upset the Pats in Cleveland in 2010, but it’s hard to see this team hanging with this Patriots team that is vastly more talented than they were in 2010. Cleveland always is a special place for Bill Belichick and I’m sure he’d like to get that last loss off his mind.
Week 6: Sunday, 10/16 at 1pm vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Early last season it seemed like the Pats and Bengals were on a collision course in the AFC. Then Andy Dalton got hurt, the Bengals faded in the standings and blew a playoff win over the Steelers by imploding. With the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the Bengals will have a different look on offense this year and likely take a step backwards. Still, their defense has talent. The Bengals squeaked out a win over the Pats in 2013, but outside of that rain-soaked game, the Pats have handled them easily.
Week 7: Sunday, 10/23 4:25pm at Pittsburgh Steelers: With the changes in Denver, it seems like only Pittsburgh is left of veteran teams that can challenge the Patriots’ AFC supremacy. Martavis Bryant’s suspension looms large, but the Steelers should have LeVeon Bell back in the mix, testing the Patriots sometimes suspect run defense. Malcolm Butler gets another shot at covering Antonio Brown — that should be an interesting matchup to watch to see if the young corner has developed his game since the 2015 opener.
Week 8: Sunday, 10/30 at 1pm at Buffalo Bills: Always one of the best atmosphere’s in football, the Pats travel to see Rex and the Bills again before their bye week.
Week 9: BYE – After last year’s early week four bye week, injuries decimated the Patriots and they never got a chance to catch their breath. This year it’s the ideal scenario, a late bye week right in the middle of the season to let the team re-group and refocus for the stretch run.
Week 10: Sunday 11/13 8:30pm vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football): A rematch of Super Bowl 49, this should be a fantastic game against two teams who have seen little dropoff since they last met in Arizona. The Seahawks haven’t been to New England since 2004, with the Pats going 1-1 in Seattle, winning in 2008 behind Matt Cassel and blowing a lead and losing in 2012. Can the Seahawks be the same team without Marshawn Lynch? Will Jimmy Graham make more of an impact in year two? Can the Seahawks figure out what made Tom Brady unstoppable against their defense at the end of Super Bowl 49? So many interesting matchups between two great teams. The Pats have an extra week to prepare and that usually helps though doesn’t ensure a win.
Week 11: Sunday, 11/20 4:25pm at San Francisco 49ers: Tom Brady finally gets a chance to play near his hometown after missing out in 2008’s regular season and not making it to the Super Bowl in San Fran last year. The 49ers are obviously in major transition and this figures to be one of the few easy matchups for the Pats in 2016. Could the long travel set them up for a letdown? That might be the 49ers only chance.
Week 12: Sunday 11/27 8:30pm at New York Jets (Sunday Night Football): The Pats went 1-1 against the Jets last season and both games were tight contests. There was no dropoff in the transition from Rex Ryan to Todd Bowles. The Jets always play the Pats hard and though there’s plenty still up in the air with this Jets’ team, they should be ready to attack the Patriots once again. Unless of course they manage to lose Ryan Fitzpatrick and are stuck with Geno Smith or someone worse.
Week 13: Sunday 12/4 at 1pm vs. Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have plenty of talent on defense and are likely to have first overall pick Carson Wentz or Jared Goff at quarterback with not much around him to work with other than running back Todd Gurley. This game will have special meaning for Chris Long and he should be getting after Wentz/Goff all afternoon. Aaron Donald against the Patriots’ interior offensive line will be a spot to watch. He can singlehandedly destroy an offensive gameplan.
Week 14: Monday 12/12 at 8:30pm vs. Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night Football): The Pats didn’t see the Ravens last season. Baltimore might’ve been the only team hit harder by injuries in the league, but they should be reloaded and ready to contend in the AFC once again in 2016. Regardless of how the rest of the offseason shakes out, the Ravens almost always give the Pats a hard time. As always, this is a must-watch game, and at this point in the season, this could be one with major playoff implications.
Week 15: Sunday, 12/18 4:25pm at Denver Broncos: This is probably the game most of the Patriots and their fans are circling out of the gate with the Pats having their season ended there for the second time in three years, and the third time overall for Brady and Belichick. The Broncos are suddenly a team in transition, losing both their top two quarterbacks along with significant pieces on defense like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. Despite these changes, a win in Denver would do a lot for this Patriots team mentally by getting them over the hump that kept the from playing in the last three-straight Super Bowls.
Week 16: Saturday, December 24th 1pm, vs. New York Jets: A Christmas Eve special against the Jets! The season ends with the same opponents as last year only this time they’ll get the Jets in Foxboro. As always it’s hard to tell how meaningful these games will be. Last year they lost both of the them and failed to hold homefield advantage that likely cost them a shot in the Super Bowl. But no one plays the Pats harder than the Jets and no matter what the records or what’s at stake, this will be a close one.
Week 17: Sunday 1/1 1pm at Miami Dolphins: The same ender as last year that saw the Pats lose to Miami and almost lost Tom Brady during a scary sack. With a first-year head coach it’s unlikely Miami is in playoff contention at this point. Still after last year we can’t take anything for granted. But this will be a nice warm way to end the season as long as it doesn’t cost the Pats a place in the standings or any injuries.
Patriots 2016 Schedule Analysis
Here’s what jumps out to me on the schedule:
- Perfect bye week – always where I look first, you can’t get any better that the bye week right in the middle of the season.
- Three Straight vs. AFC North – Weeks Five through Seven figure to challenge the Pats physically, going up against three traditionally physical teams in the Browns, Bengals and Steelers.
- Ravens/Broncos Back-To-Back: The Pats playoff positioning will be decided with these two huge games in early December. Of course the Broncos will be a different team this year and by that point maybe even out of contention. Still, those are the two biggest Patriot rivals outside the division at this point.
- No Brutality: Generally the schedule is pretty well spread out. There’s no brutal travel as both west coast-ish trips are at opposite ends of the schedule.
- Denver game might be meaningless: And I’m fine with that. Maybe we can put the final nail in Mark Sanchez’s coffin.
- Love the Start: Maybe an ideal start to the season with a great (but low pressure) opener in Arizona, followed by three home games that should all be very winnable. The real problems start with Cinci and Pitt in October but…
- If Brady is suspended the first four games: (which I don’t think he will be but still…) There are two home divisional games which in my book are always must-win. Imagine Garoppolo losing those games setting things up for a tight AFC East divisional race all year, which would then mean Brady has to win in Buffalo, New York and Miami later in the season.
- Primetime Games: Three Sunday Night games (Cardinals, Seahawks and Jets) and one Monday Night game (Ravens). This seems like a low number of national games for the Pats. Maybe it will help them stay under the radar a bit? Nah.
