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Offseason Day #2: A rough outline of a plan

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My Patriots needs as of a month ago haven’t really changed much after the post-season non-fun. Here they are again, with some notes as to why I’ve initially ranked them this way.

  1. Tackle (Vollmer/Cannon entering last years, always go trenches over skill, high draft)
  2. Early Down Running Back (mid-round draft, Gaffney potential?, Blount is FA)
  3. Wide Receiver (Amendola possible cap casualty, LaFell entering last year, Keshawn Martin ceiling? high/mid/low draft)
  4. Linebacker (middle guy, coverage speed, cut & re-sign Mayo on cheap, draft, FA)
  5. Cornerback (depth and size needed, re-sign Tarrell Brown? Low draft )
  6. Tight End (always a need, find ideal Gronk compliment at Y-TE)
  7. Guard (Are Mason/Jackson/Kline the answer?)
  8. Defensive End (Sheard/Ninkovich/Jones entering last years)
  9. Defensive Tackle (always a need)

Here’s how the depth chart currently looks, along with free agents. I starred the priority guys for me. Branch and Mayo have orange boxes signifying their options this offseason.

Here’s a rough outline for a plan this offseason.

Decline: Mayo option

Don’t see much interest out there for Mayo, at least not enough to get him to leave New England even if the Pats offered him a vet minimum type deal after declining his option. Does he have anything left in the tank? Didn’t look like it this year though he started to make some plays down the stretch. Given his favored status with BB I could see him getting one last shot on a team-friendly deal. Either way, LB depth is a priority.

Re-Work/Cut: Amendola, Bostic

Bostic did nothing after the Pats traded for him and is an easy cut unless there were lingering injury issues they’d like to give him a chance to get through. Amendola is an interesting one, due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. They’re still paying for the overpriced contract they gave him two years ago, and had to already re-do it once last season to spread out his hit a little bit. Seems possible he might not return unless he’s willing to do the Pats another favor.

Pickup: Branch option

Pats have an option on Branch that would pay him the same salary as this year: $1.2 million. The $2.75 million cap hit might be a little rich for the Pats, but Branch was consistently good this season and made for a great starting inside pair with Malcolm Brown. Must bring at least him or Hicks back, and Branch is far more affordable.

Extend: Hightower, Sheard, Collins, Butler

Not a lot of priority internal free agents this year but next offseason is brutal so they need to start locking guys up now. Hightower is my top priority, he’s the heart of the defense now and gets just a slight nod over Jamie Collins, who is nearly as important. Sheard was everything we’d hoped he’d be last season, and was playing over Chandler Jones in the playoffs. He should be a long-term building block. Butler should get done before the end of the 2016 season, but for the Pats, who don’t overpay the corner position, it will be interesting to see how they value Butler.

Trade Bait: Chandler Jones

Pats are in a good position with Chandler in that they can just let him play out the last year of his contract, because he still has something to prove. They have the depth to replace him though and that’s why he could be trade bait. A Sheard-Ninkovich-Flowers-Grissom DE group would be okay assuming Flowers builds on how he looked in limited action last summer. Either way, I don’t think Chandler’s with the Pats past 2016.

Priority RFA/ERFA: Coleman, Develin, C. Fleming, King, Siliga, R. Johnson.

Coleman was really underrated in the slot and despite injuries and a concussion came on in the playoffs. They’ll want to keep him around for sure. Develin’s return would really help the struggling run game and give the offense another dynamic they missed this year. Fleming stays cause we can’t cut all the tackles. King was extremely underrated on special teams and could be needed to fill a void that Brandon Bolden/Nate Ebner might leave via free agency.

Priority Internal UFA: Ebner, Fletcher, Brown, Hicks

We can take a shot at Hicks but it seems likely he’ll get more elsewhere after getting that new Patriots smell rubbed all over him this season. Tarrell Brown looked like a starter in training camp and would be the perfect kind of veteran to bring in to the corner mix again rather than trolling for someone new who may or may not get it. Always liked Fletcher and linebacker depth is a need, especially someone like him with good quickness and coverage ability. Keeping Ebner over Wilson for special teams. Wilson replaceable by King, Fletcher.

External FA Positional Consideration: RB, OT, LB, WR

Don’t get too crazy with delusions of big name, high priced guys here with all the internal guys who need to be secured. The Amendola/Mayo/Fletcher/Cannon/Vollmer situations will impact the needs here and must play out first. One name I liked before the draft is WR Mohammad Sanu who has good size and can do a number of different things. Otherwise I’m looking at mid-range vets coming off injuries or sub-par seasons who will be reasonably priced.

Initial Primary Draft (Long-term) Needs: OT, LB, RB, WR, QB

Again, we have to go through free agency first to really get a sense on draft needs but generally the draft is about the long term. These are the positions that need young depth more than anywhere else. And I’m throwing QB on there because it would make sense if you think Brady can get another couple years out of his body past 2017, the last year of his current deal (which is also the last year of Garoppolo’s. At this point, the more young QBs we can groom under Brady the better.

Offseason Day #1: The Patriots Plan

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It’s the first day of the offseason which of course means that everyone’s an expert about what the Patriots need to do this season (aside from just get healthy, because let’s be honest, that’s about 75 percent of it).

You have the WEAPONZZZZZ! crowd who think Alshon Jeffery and every other big name free agent wide receiver is the answer, and the ‘blow up the entire offensive line’ crowd is pretty vocal right now as well.

The important thing is to look at the overall big picture and not overreact to one loss that came almost exclusively at the hands of one of the best defenses in football having one of their best games and hitting Brady more than he was his all season.

Solder comes back and I like the offensive line core. You have two good young centers, two young rookie guards who looked promising entering their second year and then Kline should probably be the interior swing guy.

I do wonder about right tackle, because you have to think Vollmer’s best days are behind him even if he can stay at right tackle. As for Cannon I think he’s at best a backup right tackle. Both are entering their final years of their deals and will make a combined $11 million. Very possible at least one gets cut, but both seems scary, and it doesn’t seem like they’re ready to throw Cam Fleming in there any time soon.

So yes, right tackle (preferably someone who’s athletic) is a need, but it’s really one of the easier positions to find. Can they squeeze another year out of Vollmer? I’d be fine to try.

Receiver does feel like another priority but I think this is one area people are way overreacting right now. I don’t think we simply throw LaFell by the wayside because he regressed this year. Let’s remember he dealt with a foot injury all season long and some of his tweets today seem to point to that as a reason why he was less effective.

No harm in giving him a full offseason to get healthy and see if he can recapture the magic. There’s no guarantee anyone else is going to come in and “get it” like LaFell did in 2014.

And of course the “deep threat-ers” are out in force today as well, but they need to play to Brady’s strengths. Amendola could be a restructure candidate again, or could just get cut outright. Edelman will turn 30 this year. They need to add some logs to the wide receiver fire, but I’d focus as much on the smart, shifties as the big, run fasties. 

How much of a role is Keshawn Martin ready to take on? Seemed like the Denver game was a chance for him to show something and he didn’t show much. Still, they extended him so they must see some kind of potential. Best case scenario (for him) is that he replaces Amendola in the slot), but I’d kinda prefer to maybe look for some more size inside.

One free agent I really liked coming out who has been getting thrown around today is Mohammad Sanu. Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but I think he’d be a dynamic threat the Pats could use in a number of ways.

Another area to look long and hard at is running back. The Pats had no running game against the Broncos and were completely one dimensional. Blount is a free agent and while I’d take him back I still think he’s better in a 1B closer role. Dion Lewis will be back along with James White so you have to like the receiving back depth. I mean, if Lewis was healthy the Pats would be in the Super Bowl, I have no doubt.

So that leaves a 1A back who can get those early tough yards and loosen things up. Not talking anything crazy, just like what Stevan Ridley did. That could be a draft position. Still curious about Tyler Gaffney too.

Defensively I think the main focus is extending Hightower first, maybe Collins as well. But definitely Hightower and unfortunately that will probably come as a harsh reality to Chandler Jones. I’d re-sign Tarrell Brown after he looked pretty good last summer, but with major paydays coming to the front seven there won’t be much big spending elsewhere on that side of the ball. Coleman and Johnson showed good promise and Ryan/Butler was legitimate starters.

Mayo is likely gone, but I could see him back on a vet minimum kind of deal because he’s not going to have much of a market. Remember he could get some pop back a full two years removed from the torn patellar tendon. Not holding my breath on his resurgence though, so if there’s one position to consider in the upper half of the draft on defense it’s linebacker.

Remember, to turn in the season we turned in with so many guys not only on IR, but walking wounded in almost every key spot, is so so impressive. Maybe some will see that as a cop out or excuse, but the Patriots lost more man games to injury than any other team and still came within a two-point conversion from going back to the Super Bowl. No other team could’ve done that.

With better injury luck next year it’s hard to see who will stand in the Pats way in the AFC.

Pats Posits: We’re on to the Offseason!

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And that’s all she wrote on the 2015 Patriots after getting thoroughly dominated by the Broncos’ defense in Denver.  I didn’t think the Broncos could win a straight-up fight. And while there were quite a few fluky dumbass plays by the Pats, it basically came down to the Broncos defense dominating the Patriots offense.

So full credit to them. We’ve see seasons end like this before. Does it mean blow everything up? Not even close. The entire core returns next season, and with players returning from injury like Nate Solder and Dion Lewis, the Patriots offense is already much better today than it was as they walked off the field in Denver.

But this one was every bit as maddening as past season-enders have been. They weren’t as sharp as they needed to be from the outset. That included a stupid headbutt by Stork that backed them up after a big punt return by Amendola.

I do think the Patriots were late to realize the Broncos offense was done, in hindsight taking field goals at the end probably would’ve won the game. They always err on the side of aggression so I can live with it.

What was brutally apparent was that as soon as the Pats punted on their first possession after winning the toss and receiving, they would be playing catchup the rest of the game. The Broncos had their best drive on their first drive, and never came close to a long sustained drive the rest of the game.

Saw plenty of complaints out there about not deferring, but it’s not that uncommon as we think. They received against Denver in 2013 as well, along with two other times that season. It certainly backfired in this one.

The Pats defense deserves a lot of credit too. They didn’t get much help and they forced five punts and let up just a field goal in the second half. They stopped the run. They got to Manning. They did everything a defense needs to do in the playoffs. And they’re all coming back.

Despite the constant catchup, I really liked our chances for most of the game. Even without their best game, the Pats still went down to the wire and went down swinging. They will never be a team that simply folds and it’s a point of pride no matter how the season ends.

Will take a few days to wrap up the season and then it’s on to free agency and the draft. Another offseason is upon us. Ugh.

New England Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

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This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.

To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?

The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.

Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.

There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.

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Offensive Gameplan

Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.

When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.

You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.

But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.

The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.

So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.

Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.

Defensive Gameplan

Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.

If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.

The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.

It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.

I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.

The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.

Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.

It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.

But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.

Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.

2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.

3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.

4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.

5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17

Pats Posits: AFC Championship Week Hump Day Edition via MyBookie.ag

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Lots to talk about already this week, but I feel like I’ve been a little overwhelmed by what a victory on Sunday would mean for this entire BB/TB run. Really trying not to think about it, but yeah, it would mean a lot and bring many things full circle that have been lingering for a long time (like 2005/2006/2013 season-enders). 

There will be plenty of time to talk about that if/when the Pats take care of business. I already made the mistake in SB46 of assuming that all wrongs would be righted by the BB/TB dynasty, at least on the time frame we thought they should be righted.

But imagine sending both Tom Coughlin and Peyton Manning, two of the biggest thorns in our sides off into the sunset together this season. At that point playing in the Super Bowl would just be the frosting on top. And if you look at the Super Bowl odds, it seems like Vegas likes the Pats back in the big game.

We didn’t know who the 2015 Patriots were coming into last week, whether they were the banged-up-and-broken team that went 2-4 down the stretch or the team that raced out to 10-0. From the looks of it against the Chiefs they’re closer to the 10-0 version and we have every reason to expect that team to show up in Denver Sunday.

Now, after avenging last year’s MNF beatdown and finally beating Eli, Coughlin and the Giants for the first time since 2007, things are finally set up in the AFC Championship to close the door on a number of other open wounds from the last decade. There wouldn’t be the same poetic justice opportunity in the Super Bowl, but a win this weekend would really cement the 2015 Pats in the pantheon of Brady/Belichick teams. Because for the most part thus far, the 2015 Pats haven’t been all that memorable save just a couple games.

Couple things to touch base on…

– So yeah, the Broncos are already yapping in the media, saying Brady is a cry baby and Gronk pushes off and the only way to take Gronk out is to go low. Clearly they’re already trying to butter up the refs a bit, which I take as a great sign. If you’re that convinced already that you’re going to need help from the refs to win the game? 

And I’m not really sure how a Broncos player complaining to media so that the refs won’t bite when Brady gives them a look after taking a late hit well… kinda the same thing there as what you’re accusing Brady of and definitely more pathetic.

At least the Broncos see the same thing I’m seeing – that they’re going need every call going their way if they’re to have a chance.

– Jerod Mayo goes onto IR for the third year in a row. Rough stretch for Mayo and with his cap hit next year there’s little doubt the Pats will decline his option. And I doubt there will be much interest on the external market for a player who’s been knocked out of the season three straight years. Mayo just didn’t have the same burst/pop to him this year. He started to make some strides near the end, but coming back from a torn patellar tendon is no joke. He might’ve been better served starting on PUP.

I could see Mayo easily back next year on a bare minimum deal. Regardless, adding linebacker depth will be a priority this season. I’ll save my panic about every Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming snap for a later post this week but yeah, this whole game comes down to Hightower and Collins for me. If those two guys can finish the game, playing north of 80% of the snaps, the Pats really should shut down the Broncos running game. 

Much, much more to come as the longest week I can ever remember drags on…

Legacy AFC Championship Game for Belichick/Brady

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During the Patriots long and storied dynasty run since winning the Super Bowl in 2001, there have been plenty of rivals to rise and fall. 

Peyton Manning and the Colts were first. The Baltimore Ravens were second, and now it’s the Denver Broncos. Part of that is Peyton Manning’s years, but even before Manning the Pats have always struggled against the Broncos in Denver.

Two seasons (2005 and 2013) have ended in Denver for Brady and Belichick. 2005 was their first-ever playoff loss together. Finally beating the Broncos in Denver would complete that circle.

The 2015 Peyton Broncos in Denver embody almost everything that has ever stopped Brady and Belichick from getting to the Super Bowl.

Along with their first win over the Giants since 2007′s 16-0 game and a win over the Chiefs, avenging the 2014 beatdown on MNF, the Pats are now poised to write the final chapter in three career trouble spots.

Pats Posits: Nerves Settling in for Denver

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I think I get more nervous for a playoff game that the Patriots should win than one where it’s a toss up. Make no mistake, after the way these two teams looked this weekend, the Patriots should win this game. Well, based on how Denver’s looked all season, squeaking out wins after fortuitous mistakes by their opponents, the Patriots should win this game.

But it’s in Denver and that’s what scares me, because things have traditionally been shaky in Denver for the Patriots especially in the playoffs. But it’s hard to see the player Peyton Manning is now and worry that he’s suddenly going to be tossing it all over the field on our defense like it’s two-plus years ago.

You have to respect the Broncos ground game, but if that gets shut down and the big plays to Sanders and Thomas are taken away, it would line up similarly to how the Chiefs game went – lot of regular personnel on defense to crowd the box and kill the running game, press their receivers and make Manning consistently hit 10+ yard passing plays to win the game.

Amazingly this flips the script on BB’s usual Peyton gameplan, where you’d concede the run to take the game out of his hands. It really just comes down to how healthy Collins and Hightower can be, because with both of them in there, the Broncos will struggle to consistently run the ball.

What scares me is that for the Patriots to lose this game they’re going to have to have a lot of mistakes, a lot of calls go against them and just get none of the bounces. Because with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup New England should really move the ball at will. Put it this way – with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup the Pats are 4-0 against the Broncos. 

I am all about the season-long narrative with my Pats coverage. I like meaningful games and there’s no better narrative, no more meaningful game than having to go back to Denver, where the 2015 season started to fall apart from its perfect start.

The Pats already avenged a brutal loss from last season, and now they have the chance to avenge both the 2013 AFCCG loss and the earlier loss this season. Denver has been a tough place for Brady over the course of his career. What a perfect chance to finish off those demons this weekend.