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Patriots Free Agency Day 1 Posits

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Let’s dive in on what we know, because by the time I post this there will probably be new news I’m missing.

– First, of course, is the big news of Darrelle Revis going back to the Jets. This was unexpected and I wrote that I thought he should’ve been the Pats top priority, however Revis wanting max money ruined that plan. Revis was everything we hoped for in 2014, shutting down every top receiver in sight and now the Pats are stuck. Brandon Browner also did not have his option picked up so the Pats essentially have to re-build their outside cornerbacks now.

The cupboard is not completely barren. While no one thinks Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan or Malcolm Butler are Revis and Browner, they are all experienced corners who can at the very least provide depth. And who knows just what Butler’s ceiling is, he might be the best of the bunch. And of course, there always Kyle Arrington, one of the best slot corners in hte NFL despite being a popular whipping boy for Pats Nation.

The Pats still have plenty of cap space and while the corner market isn’t super sexy, things are still far from set.

– The Pats signed Brandon Gibson first, a receiver who had some promise under Josh McDaniels in St. Louis before getting hurt against the Pats in 2012 and never getting back on track. He went to Miami for two years and was eventually passed on the depth chart. This is classic Pats, sign a guy a former coach/exec knows and likes and see what he does with Brady. Might not make it out of camp, or injuries could break his way and he could click with Brady. Amendola’s future could be tied to his roster chances as well. Not a sexy signing, but the kind that the Pats have built their dynasty on.

– Jabaal Sheard visited the Pats Tuesday night and I love his potential fit in New England. Specifically he’s a left defensive end who’s tough against the run, but also has the ability to stand up a bit from time to time as the Pats will often as their defensive ends to do. He can also pass rush a bit so he could be a designated rusher at times off the edge as well. Most important he’d be a legit third defensive end to rotate in with Ninkovich and Chandler, something they haven’t really had. I see him as a more gritty option that Akeem Ayers, who skews more toward playing from a two-point stance and in space. Here’s hoping they lock him up.

– Some other names that have popped up that the Pats could be interested include Titans linebacker Colin McCarthy, a mobile middle linebacker from the Titans who missed 2014 with a shoulder injury. Again, a total Pats-type guy – good player who has been devalued due to an injury. He could be good insurance behind Mayo and Hightower depending on their statuses.

– The Pats were tied to just about every free agent running back who can catch on Tuesday – Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller and Roy Helu being the big three. With Shane Vereen walking, there’s no question they need to add one of these guys. And with Helu signing in Oakland, they’re already down an option. Bush or Spiller could be on the docket shortly.

Sunday Non-Pats Posits

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I’m going to try and work in a new weekly post each Sunday here that will feature some commentary about what went down around the rest of the NFL, especially with the Pats biggest rivals. These are always some of my favorite weekend reading, especially during the offseason, so here are mine.

LeSean McCoy Traded for Kiko Alonso – I was somewhat disappointed by this week’s big trade because I was curious to see how Rex used Alonso. As for having to see McCoy twice a season I’m not really all that concerned. The one time the Pats saw McCoy in the 2011 regular season he had just 31 yards on 10 carries, though he did have a 2-yard TD. There’s no question he’s a good weapon, but we’ve dealt with Jackson and Spiller for years and they were never a huge problem. Until the Bills get a QB I’m skeptical of them legitimately threatening the throne.

Speaking of which, the Bills also got Matt Cassell this week. Yawn. We saw him last year with Minnesota. Right or wrong, Brian Hoyer would’ve scared me a lot more. We’ve always known what Cassell can and can’t do. Sounds like he’ll just be mentoring EJ Manuel, who has performed well in spots vs. the Patriots the couple times he’s played us. Still, I think the Chiefs remain a good model on how to beat the Patriots – efficient QB, explosive running back, dominant front seven. Of course, that’s the formula, baking it into a “Beat the Pats” cake requires a 60-minute nearly mistake-free game while also catching the Pats on one of their off days.

Brandon Marshall is back in the AFC East and again, until the Jets find a quarterback who can at least be consistent, I’m not exactly sure how much we should be worried. Marshall had just 3 catches for 35 yards in 2014 vs. the Pats. So yeah, this is another point in why it’s so important to retain Revis.

Lot of rumors swirling that the Dolphins are the favorites to land Ndamukung Suh, which would obviously give make a very good front even better. Suh is just the kind of player that can cause the Pats problems, even moreso than their vaunted edge rusher Cameron Wake. If the Phins get Suh it will put even more emphasis for me on upgrading the guard spots, at least one of them. Clint Boling was a favorite of mine coming out and I think he’d make sense.

Some have asked me what happens if the Pats lose BOTH Revis and McCourty. I don’t really see that as an option. The corner market is already drying up. If the Pats don’t spend on them I don’t know where they spend and they HAVE to spend.

It will be a crazy week and I expect to be surprised by a Pats move at least once.

Vince Wilfork: Patriots Say Good Bye to a Big, Big Legend

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I was not entirely surprised to see the news today that the New England Patriots would not be picking up Vince Wilfork’s option for the 2015 season. Still, it hit me hard as Wilfork has been the fulcrum of the defense for over a decade. 

To learn just how much Wilfork meant to the defense, read this great piece from 2012 by Chris Brown.

Wilfork started out as a 3-4 nose tackle, but around 2010, as the game evolved, he grew into a much bigger role. Belichick began moving him all over the line as the sub-defense usage rose and the 3-4 became a specialty package to stop the run.

Belichick used Wilfork as the queen on his chessboard, positioning him to single-handedly take away an opponent’s strength. Wilfork played up and down the line and had some games, like the 2011 AFC Championship, where he was absolutely dominant.

It got to the point where I believe the Patriots overused Wilfork, just look at his snap progression from 2009:

  • 2009: 51.8 percent 
  • 2010: 69.8 percent 
  • 2011: 86.8 percent 
  • 2012: 81.3 percent

That kind of playing time for a player the size of Wilfork, once thought to just be a run-stopping nose tackle, is unheard of. And it seems quite likely that the heavy load caught up to Wilfork in 2013, when he tore his Achilles early in the season.

That was the first major injury of his career and many, including me, questioned if he could come back as his same old self. But Wilfork proved me and everyone else wrong, turning in another great season in 2014, playing 73.9% of the snaps and walking off the field for the last time as a Patriot the same way he ended his first season with the team, as a Super Bowl champion.

You simply can’t just replace a player like Vince Wilfork, a player who essentially defined your front seven. But it’s a totally Patriots move to let him go now, maybe a year too early, before it’s a year too late.

The Patriots had some experience playing without Wilfork in 2013, but their run defense fell to 27th in the NFL in DVOA. Sealver Siliga possesses a similar body type to Wilfork and has shown some promising flashes in his first two seasons with the Patriots.

However, Siliga has also had multiple injury issues and required offseason surgery last month, presumed to be on his ankle. He’s part of the equation to replace Wilfork, but not by himself.

A specific area the Patriots defense struggled in 2014 was in their short yardage run defense, even with Wilfork in the mix, and that’s an area that had to be addressed regardless if Wilfork returned or not.

They were 32nd in Power Success and 28th in Stuffed rankings by Football Outsiders. Power Success is the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Stuffed is the percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. (Don’t share this with Pete Carroll)

So the need for a defensive tackle who can dominate against the run in both free agency and the draft certainly just got a bigger. Can the Pats get by with Siliga, Chris Jones and Dominique Easley as their interior lineman, including an addition like the re-signing of an Alan Branch or similar veteran? There’s more pass rush potential there and if Siliga gets hurt, there’s no proven depth behind him.

Stopping the run is always critical, even moreso now that the Bills have LeSean McCoy.

Perhaps this is a chance for another defensive evolution by Bill Belichick. He can’t rely on his centerpiece Wilfork any more. Change in inevitable, but you can’t just plug another nose tackle in and expect him to be Big Vince.

Wilfork is a legendary Patriot and one of only two who connect the last Super Bowl of the early 2000’s dynasty to the latest one. One day he’ll get a red jacket and enter the Patriots Hall of Fame, if not the Pro Football Hall of Fame as well.

His presence both on the field and off it will be missed, but he will never be forgotten.

Pats Posits: There is No Offseason

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I finally started to dive in on the draft this week after taking a nice three week somewhat-hiatus from the grind of the blogging hobby. The draft is a whole subset of NFL fans and it’s pretty much Thunderdome, especially on Twitter. 

Hoodie help anyone who drops a full mock draft because there will be immediate backlash against pretty much every fake pick you make. 

I keep going back to Belichick making fun of meteorologists this season, because draft prognostication isn’t too much different. There are plenty of folks out there who done a ton of great work and research and they deserve credit, and they love this stuff far more than I. But I appreciate their work and I use much of it in putting together my research. 

Put it this way, I love the draft, I hate the social media atmosphere leading up to the draft and prefer to stay out of the fray.

At the end of draft weekend you’re left with 8-10 players, plus a few free agents in the week following, and then I find it much more fun to analyze how those players who are actually now part of the team fit. You know, instead of projecting how 300+ guys could possibly fit. 

But it’s a long offseason so we all need something to keep us busy, so if the draft if your bag, go for it.

The way I do the draft here on the blog is by putting together a 50 prospect big board and trying to hit as many Patriots picks as I can. You can see the last four years of big boards here. 

Then I’ll drop a mock draft the week before the draft. I don’t claim to know much about scouting, but I think I know the Patriots system and the kind of players they look for. In seven years of following the Pats’ drafts I think I’ve learned a lot about the process and how they use the draft.

Here’s how I’ve done:

My goal for this year remains to break 50% on the big board.

Some thoughts as I’ve gotten into the research are that everyone is accurately projecting the Pats to pick a guard (AJ Cann) with their first pick. The Pats mock draft cycle is often in sync for most analysts who know the team and this is no different. Still, a lot can change after free agency, so the biggest rule is to never fall too in love with one prospect.

I don’t think wide receiver or defensive end are huge needs at this point, but there seem to be a lot of players who really fit the Pats’ system. It’s important to think about drafting replacements a year before you need them, and with Chandler Jones entering his final year and Ninkovich on the wrong side of 30, it might smart to snag a big DE now and develop him this year.

Similarly, I think the big nose tackles are extremely intriguing. We’ll see how things play out with Wilfork, but I could see one of the highly-regarded prospects being targeted in the first round there as well.

Another area to look at is linebacker, where the Pats’ depth is razor-thin and that’s before knowing what will happen with Jerod Mayo.

Put it this way, there are quite a few things to play out before March 10th before we can really get a bead on the draft needs. Outside of the long-range needs at DE/DT, interior OL, there’s not a lot we can say definitely at this point.

Still, it’s exciting to have an offseason where I’m not depressed about how it ended. The 2015 Pats will be different, but there’s no doubt, they’ll be very good.

More Deflategate Leaks Point To Patriots Innocence

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In case you missed it, Deflategate was back in the news last night thanks to this piece from ESPN. There’s more contradictory nonsense in it, but what was most interesting to me is that the big “reveal” of this one is that a Patriots worker was caught trying to put a “K” ball, or the balls the kickers use, into play.

If true, this totally undercuts the entire deflategate nontroversy. Why? All the uproar was because the Patriots were allegedly trying to cheat by using balls that were underinflated, thus easier to catch in cold weather. Nevermind that the difference from a legal ball and an illegal ball is imperceptible and literally has no real effect making things easier to execute on offense.

But if it was a K ball that’s something completely different. K balls are essentially brand new, and often inflated to the higher end of the the spectrum. Tom Brady would’ve known instantly if he gripped a K ball because he would’ve never had a chance to break it in and rough it up to his liking.

So this means using a K ball would be a DISADVANTAGE if it were to be put into play. Not only would it be harder but it wouldn’t be broken in AT ALL.

The report goes on to say that the NFL’s Mike Kensil then went and tested the rest of the Patriots’ balls and found them to be “1-2 pounds” underinflated, much different than Chris Mortensen’s report that 11 of the 12 balls were two pounds underinflated. These new numbers would seem to support the Patriots’ story that they filled them near the low end of the legal spectrum and they simply lost pressure over the course of the first half.

So the NFL continues to handle this whole thing horribly as we’ve become accustomed to. If this latest report is accurate, it’s looking more and more like a mistake by a part time employee started this whole thing and it’s spun out of control thanks to the NFL.