PatsPropaganda :: The Key Defensive Player for a New England Patriots Super Bowl Run
Taking a closer look at Chandler Jones and what an interesting playoffs this will be for him.
analysis
Pats Posits: A loss to the Jets is still a loss to the Jets (even when you’re playing your JV offense)
The Patriots made a noble comeback attempt against the Jets after being down 17-3, only to fall short in overtime, now we’re on to Miami to close the season off. It’s hard to feel that bad about a relatively meaningless loss, but it might’ve been easier to swallow if they hadn’t made a pretty ballsy comeback.
The playoffs are fast approaching and the Pats still can’t make it through a game without someone getting carted off. Also – Super Bowl 50 is just around to corner so act now if you plan to bet on Super Bowl 2016 online and get in the game.
Belichick’s decision to play defense first in overtime was a strong choice, but given how the offense had been playing, it’s was the better choice if you think it will be a field possession game in overtime.
Belichick isn’t afraid to make those kinds of calls, nor does he care what anyone thinks after the fact. That’s why you have to love him and right or wrong, he did what he thought was best, just like he did when he forced Seattle’s hand in the closing minute of Super Bowl 49 by not calling a timeout.
Despite the Pats still being in the same position they were in before the game – needing one win to clinch the top seed in the AFC – there’s still plenty to talk about.
Here are the Posits…
– Vollmer Injury – We have to start with then biggest “big picture” detail of this game and that’s the ankle injury to Sebastian Vollmer. There was hope Sunday night that it was just an ankle sprain, but any time a guy gets carted off you have to think the worst. He’ll have an MRI Monday and we’ll know what the deal is by Wednesday’s injury report at the latest.
Without Vollmer it only exacerbates the biggest weakness on this Patriots offense right now and that’s protection. Of course it all looks easier when guys like Amendola and Edelman are getting open right off the snap. Brady doesn’t need much time then, but now, without any real weapons outside Gronk, anytime the first read isn’t there, things get dicey with the protection.
– I’m not sure what we can expect from this line and what their ceiling really is. Outside of Solder and Stork, I’m not completely sold on any of the rest of them being long term solutions past this season. Yes, I’d love to think Mason and Jackson will take big strides, but can we really say either of them is as good as Stork was last year?
– When the Pats lose in the playoffs it’s because of two big things – pressure getting to Brady (especially up the middle) and the defense not making the last play. There were examples in this game of both and that’s a little scary.
– Steven Jackson looked good, getting just seven carries but still has a bit of a burst out of the backfield that even Blount lacked. As much as I’d love to say he’ll be the lead back in the playoffs, I think there’s a good chance he just has spot duty unless he really starts to go off. But he could definitely be the third-and-short/goalline hammer and I’m excited for that.
– Still, I’d take just about anything over the Brandon Bolden offense right now. I feel like it’s a personal front to me, the biggest Bolden-at-RB hater there is. The Pats had a 2.9 yards-per-carry average for the game. And while Bolden has been far more slippery than he’s been in the past, he’s still the worst starting running back the Pats have had since 2001. And don’t you dare say you’d rather have him over Laurence Maroney.
– The small silver lining of this all has been Keshawn Martin
, who I think has improved every week and is doing an okay Julian Edelman Z WR impression. Not sure it’s been enough to make Danny Amendola and his contract expendable, but I hope Martin sticks around.
– The Chung/McCourty Dropoff might’ve been the deciding factor in the Jets game, and it was made even worse when Jordan Richards went down and Tavon Wilson came on in overtime and was promptly targeted for a big gain. Obviously they’re a different defense in all aspects with their two veteran captains in there. That’s obviously the most significant difference with this game that makes it an outlier.
As Matt Chatham pointed out on Twitter during the game, so much of the Jets offense specifically targeted the Pats’ inexperience in the secondary, using bunch formations and motion to force communication issues for the Pats. This is a similar tactic to that which Eric Mangini used with the Browns in 2010 to challenge New England’s defense.
– Why is Hightower playing? The guy is super tough. I get it. But do we really need to risk him like this? He’s clearly not 100 percent and I pray he sits against Miami. Rest the beast!
– Got plenty of “calm downs” for tweeting that I thought the Jets were the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC playoffs, but I believe it. The Steelers didn’t quite live up to “the team that no one wants to play” standards against the Ravens and I know everyone is still gunshy on the Chiefs after last year, but in Foxboro they’d be a different team. Even the Broncos would be a little spooked to play in Foxboro, not to mention the Bengals. But the Jets wouldn’t and in case you haven’t noticed, pretty much every Patriots-Jets game goes down to the wire, if not overtime.
Also remember the Patriots had Edelman, Amendola, and Easley along with everyone else when it took a dropped Brandon Marshall touchdown to eek out a win at home against the Jets in October. Round Three would be an absolute dog fight and we all should know it.
– I was actually fine with the end-of-the-first-half concession. That’s been a dangerous spot for the Pats this year and the Jets offense was coming off an impressive scoring drive. It was conservative, but giving the ball back to the Jets there might’ve put the game away. Let’s remember they picked up ONE third down conversion the entire game. Same thing goes for kicking off.
– However, they were also 3-3 on 4th down conversions, a testament to the fight that this team continues to possess even when they probably should’ve easily lost by double digits. That’s why no matter who is in or out of the lineup, and at what percentage health, the Pats will be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs.
– The Sheard Strip Sack/Collins Fumble TD was the second week in a row the defense put six on the board. Remember in 2010 when they all seemed like interceptions? Well now it’s the front seven that is producing the game-changing plays. It’s a great sign for a defense that came up just a couple plays short in this one.
– Chandler Jones is one of the most interesting case studies in Belichick history. Jone will enter the fifth and final year of his deal in 2016 and he’s central to the question of how the Pats will handle him, Collins and Hightower. Against the Jets, Jones had just one tackle and one QB hit. Yes, he’s going to the Pro Bowl and has 12.5 sacks, but none of them have come in the Pats’ three losses. I think this playoff run will define Jones and the future with the Patriots. If he is a force for three games, he will write his own ticket. If he disappears in a disappointing playoff loss? Hightower, Collins and Sheard will become the priorities.
– One thing I hated about letting Brandon Browner go was the size he brought to the cornerback position. The Jets were my prime example of the kind of games you’d want to have a guy like him, despite his flaws. Give Logan Ryan credit, he hung in there and some of those plays were just an impossible mismatch. Butler seemed to do a much better job this time around on Decker, but without McCourty, Ryan was hung out to dry.
– This will get lost in the shuffle, but Ryan Allen’s 4th Q punt to pin the Jets on their 6, which was followed by a three-and-out by the Jets and the Pats game-tying touchdown drive. Special Teams had somewhat of a bounceback game and that’s good to see in a competitive game.
Now it all comes down to finishing off the dead Dolphins in Miami for the top playoff seed. The great question of 2015 remains – can the Patriots get healthy and click fast enough to win three playoff games?
New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 16 at New York Jets
The Patriots need just one win in their final two games to secure the top seed in the AFC so against a Jets team that currently sits outside the playoffs and badly needs a win and help to get in, you might wonder what Bill Belichick’s mindset is – rest the walking wounded, concede a possible loss and focus on sealing up homefield in Miami against a Dolphins team with nothing to play for?
Or play to win regardless of injuries and playoff seeds? If you’ve been following Bill Belichick long enough, it’s a pretty good guess he’ll play to win, but with Devin McCourty and Danny Amendola expected to sit the Pats will be less than full strength once again in 2015. Really, it’s the season’s defining characteristic.
One interesting development is that we will get a look at Steven Jackson this week, possibly the latest and most recognizable in-season name addition Belichick has ever made. If Jackson has five games of any amount of beast mode left in him (after an extended period off), the Pats will have an entire new dimension in the playoffs.
Here’s the gameplan for the Jets, where all that really matters is getting through it healthy. If they have to seal up the conference in Miami so be it.
Offensive Gameplan
Tom Brady led the Pats in carries with four the first time these teams met in October and that will tell you all you need to know about how they viewed the Jets defense – that they had to throw it 54 times.
Now, the Pats will have just Keshawn Martin and Brandon LaFell (and maybe Chris Harper) dressed as receivers in this one. So replicating last game’s attack would be difficult.
Gronk was largely shut down last game by Calvin Pryor, until Pryor went down with an injury. Gronk finished with 11 catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. This week Pryor is back, and without Edelman or Amendola to worry about, there’s a good chance Revis could see Gronk at times as well.
One big element from the first matchup was Brandon LaFell’s first game of the season where he dropped multiple passes. LaFell has had an up and down season, but he’ll need to catch everything thrown his direction in this one.
The conservative approach for this game would be to give Steven Jackson, Brandon Bolden and James White plenty of action. They don’t have the personnel to go light and fast, so they’ll definitely use plenty of heavy sets with Cameron Fleming and Michael Williams on the field.
Then they’ll get Jackson some work and hopefully take some of the pass rush pressure off of Brady. Of course it’s all contingent on actually moving the ball with the run and there’s no guarantee this season that they can get the running game going without loosening up the defense with the quick passing game first.
If they can’t move the ball on the ground the game will come down to Keshawn Martin and how many tough third down catches he can make. The Jets have the resources to take away Gronk and LaFell, so Martin (and James White) will have to come up big for the Pats to put up 20+ points.
Defensive Gameplan
The story of the first meeting was the Jets going 8-of-14 on third down, including conversion on three third-and-10′s. Those kind of conversions are killers, especially when you’re winning the battle on first and second down.
Whether it was because of injury or not, they held Chris Ivory and the Jets run game to just 89 yards rushing. That set up plenty of third and longs but the Pats just couldn’t get off the field and thus, the game was really close.
Last time the Pats double Brandon Marshall and gave Eric Decker to Malcolm Butler. Decker had six catches for 94 yards and five of them came on third down.
Can the Jets get their running game going this time? Malcom Brown and Alan Branch will need their best games as nothing breaks the Patriots defense quicker than when their run defense goes soft.
Then there’s Bilal Powell in the passing game who has emerged as a threat out of the backfield. They might need to put a safety on him, but…
Devin McCourty’s likely absence will impact how well they can double team Brandon Marshall. What if Chung can’t go either? Duron Harmon will be a huge key player and we might see Nate Ebner or Tavon Wilson playing an important in-box role with coverage responsibilities.
Final Analysis
As much as I’d love to put a huge nail in the Jets playoff coffins, I’m really only worried about not sustaining a playoff-run-altering injury. We’re so close, it seems like all the big guns should be ready for January, let’s just get through these last two games and make another run at this thing.
Pats Posits: One more win until homefield
It’s another victory Monday after the Pats dispatched the Titans 33-16, moving to 12-2 and needing just one more win to seal up the top seed in the AFC thanks to the Steelers knocking off the Broncos.
All that really matters now for the 2015 Patriots is getting healthy. We’re going to take the Jets’ best shot and probably have to do it with far less than what we’ll go into the playoffs with.
The injury headlines were Dont’a Hightower and Danny Amendola tweaking previous injuries and Patrick Chung leaving the game with a hip injury. Hightower returned to the sideline but didn’t re-enter the game. That’s a ray of hope.
All three players are likely done for the regular season. Hightower and Chung are somewhat manageable, but not having Amendola against the Jets will make things tough.
This 2015 season has seemed like an extended preseason, with a constant state of injuries and injury management. Credit to the Patriots though, they’ve had to put second-most players on injured reserve, yet here they sit again atop the AFC.
It’s become to easy to take it for granted.
Here are the Posits…
– James White’s Emergence Continues: The biggest development of recent weeks is James White starting to look more and more comfortable making electric plays that had been missing since Dion Lewis went down. White’s best play, a 70-yard run that called back on a bad call, didn’t even make the stat sheet. He did have seven catches on eight targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. That’s reliability and he’s going to be a big factor in the playoffs.
– Turnovers on Defense! One of the best things to see against the Titans was that the defense got three turnovers, their first multi- turnover game since the Redskins and just the second time they’ve gotten three all year. This is one of the top three defenses Belichick has had but strangely they’re doing it with a pretty low turnover rate. That speaks to how good the pressure and coverage has been, but if they start getting a bit more of a nose for the ball, look out.
– Logan Ryan vs. Green-Beckham: Ryan had some struggles with Green-Beckham, which is not entirely surprising given the size disparity. But it’s something to watch once again with Decker and Marshall this weekend. Still, I love what the secondary is doing and it was nice to see Butler get a pick finally.
– Defensive Front: Hoping to take a look at how the defensive front shaped up in terms of pressure packages this week. It was great to finally see them at almost full power, especially at the linebacker spot. They are a veteran crew and I can’t wait to see what they bring in the playoffs.
– Third and Short, Keeping Chains Moving: The general consensus is that the Pats will be fine no matter who they roll out there at running back and while I generally think that is true, I also think winning playoff games is built on winning critical situations – two minute offense and two minute defense being the most obvious, but the other areas are getting stops or converting on third and shorts. Right now I don’t have a ton of confidence this offense can pick up a third-and-two when they need it most.
– Hightower and Amendola Re-Injuries, Chung (hip) injury: It was a good sign that Hightower came back out of the locker room, I’d still shut him down until the playoffs though. It was clear the moment Amendola tweaked his knee on the punt return, he suddenly just lost all power. Again, I think he’s done till the playoffs too. Then there’s Chung which scares me because he’s become such a critical part of the defense. Yes, they have some depth for his role with Wilson and Richards, but not having him in the playoffs would be a big blow. We wait for word on him.
– Nice to see Chandler Jones get back on the sack stat sheet, but I’m still very curious to see which version of him shows up in the playoffs. It will tell us so much about his future with the team and what kind of contract he might get on the open market after next season (if he makes it that far).
– Belichick 2013 Crew Hoodie: I was perplexed when Belichick showed up wearing a 2013 Blue “Hoodie” without the hood in this one. At first I thought he cut the hood off because he’s never worn a crewneck 2013 sweatshirt, but upon further inspection it was in fact a crewneck. So yeah, he just sat on that for a couple seasons without ever wearing it. Do I overthink this stuff? Yup.
– Grissom Time at RDE: Nice to see Grissom get a little time at defensive end, he was mostly an interior sub rusher early in the season. Him and Trey Flowers will be ones to watch next summer, their development will have big implications on the futures of Chandler Jones and somewhat Jabaal Sheard (as much as I hope they lock up Sheard long term).
– Keshawn Martin continues to develop, making sneaky solid plays, finishing the game with three catches for 26 yards. If Amendola is out again, Martin once again steps into a huge role against as good of a defense as we’ll see from here on out in the Jets.
– Brandon LaFell restored some of my confidence in him with four catches for 88 yards including a 31 yarder. The offense needs his 2014 reliability so much going forward,
This should be a fun game with a lot of hype this week. The Jets are a playoff team and possibly one the Patriots will have to face again. They really need this game too, as only two of the Jets, Steelers, Chiefs trio will make the playoffs.
But the Patriots might be dressing a preseason team, at least at the offensive skill positions outside of Gronk. And if Chung/McCourty/Hightower are out too the Pats could very well be headed for loss number three.
The good news is a win in Miami in Week 17 looks doable and that would still lock up the top seed.
New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans
The New England Patriots have an early home finale this regular season, welcoming the floundering Tennessee Titans in a game that has me less worried about the scoreboard and more worried about injuries. Is there anything worse than losing an important player in a blowout? That’s what I really don’t want to see, and given how this season has gone, each of these last three games will terrify me.
In the last 10 games the Pats have put nine guys on IR. So do the math. Yup, scary.
The Pats should very likely clinch a bye this weekend, assuming the Steelers beat the Broncos, but ensuring the AFC championship is in New England is paramount, so the Pats need to keep riding their horses until that #1 seed is locked up.
And let’s be honest, the offense hasn’t exactly been clicking on all cylinders. Especially since Edelman went out, they’ve been up and down and often un-clutch. So nothing would be better with Edelman waiting in the wings to return, to finally see the offense take a big step forward.
Here’s the gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
We have to start at the running back position with LeGarrette Blount being the latest injury victim to have his season end on IR. The Pats signed Montee Ball to their practice squad and met with Steven Jackson on Thursday, and I’d be down with putting them both on the active roster for these last three games to see what they can bring in the playoffs.
It’s just not realistic to think the Pats can close out playoff games handing off to Brandon Bolden and James White. Generally I think the running back position is one that is pretty manageable when it comes to plug-and-play, and with three games left the Pats do have enough time to find someone they can lean on for early downs and short yardage situations, but they have to start on it this weekend.
The Pats also signed Leonard Hankerson this week after he was released by the Falcons with an IR settlement. Prior to that he had 26 catches for 327 yards and four touchdowns for Atlanta. Hankerson has good size (6′2″) and should give the Pats another big outside option aside from Brandon LaFell, essentially filling the role Aaron Dobson vacated. For the same reason as the running back position, and the recent average play of LaFell and Scott Chandler, there’s no reason not to throw Hankerson into the mix.
Things are really looking up with Julian Edelman participating in a full pads practice this week. It makes me think he could very well be close to 100% in the playoffs and that is huge news. We know he, Amendola and Gronk will be the straws stirring the drink, but I think the Patriots still need to figure out who will be the reliable options that go with them.
If Hankerson clicks it will open up the four-receiver portion of the playbook once again, and that’s a great tool to have for the playoffs and one they didn’t have last year.
Against the Titans I think it’s all about putting the ball in the hands of the new and unproven as much as possible. Keshawn Martin showed real strides last week before muffing that punt. I’d love to see him build upon that performance.
The Pats offensive line seems like they’re starting to gel. That’s a great sign. It’s just that there are still a lot of questions at running back and how the lower-level weapons will fit into the attack when it’s all on the line. Those are the things that need to be figured out starting this week, and I’d prefer to do it in a way that reduces the risk to Brady, Gronk and Amendola.
Defensive Gameplan
Outside of Dion Lewis, no player loss this season has bugged me more than Dominique Easley. Most of all I just wanted our pass rush at maximum firepower in the playoffs for once and without Easley it’s not going to be that.
Still, Akiem Hicks should be fine in Easley’s role and though he doesn’t have Easley’s explosion, it’s not like we’re going back to the days of having an ineffective Vince Wilfork trying to get pressure up the gut on third and long.
The developments that make me feel a little better is (hopefully) the return of Dont’a Hightower this weekend and how Jerod Mayo is starting to look like his old self. If the Pats trust Mayo to play a bigger role it will only free Hightower and Jamie Collins up to do more damage. That alone will help offset the loss of Easley.
Then there’s the Devin McCourty injury which, given the depth at safety, is manageable. Duron Harmon slips into the free safety role while Patrick Chung remains the strong safety, but the questions come when we look at the multiple safety packages where McCourty and Harmon were the deep safeties. Does that mean Chung has to play deep safety again (eeeek)? Or how do Wilson/Ebner/Richards fit? It will be interesting and hopefully everyone gets a chance to get some experience.
This directly fits into the big key for this game – taking away Delaney Walker. That should immediately reveal much of how the Patriots plan to replace McCourty and how Chung’s role might change from his usual tight end cover duties.
Otherwise there’s a lot to be excited about with this defense going into the playoffs if they can somehow avoid another major injury which seems impossible at this point given how the season has gone.
One big player I’ll be focusing on is Chandler Jones. In my film review of the Texans game he looked lethargic. He hasn’t had a sack in four games and failed to register a solo tackle against the Texans for just the second time this season. As I said earlier this season, I think the Pats Super Bowl hopes depend on Jones. Now I’ll walk that back a bit if Jabaal Sheard can continue to be as dominant as he’s been the last couple games, but they still really need Chandler to be much better than he was in Houston.
Five Areas of Emphasis
1. Nobody Get Hurt!!!!! – Okay, this is a stupid area of emphasis because it’s really just up to the Football Gods, but I’m so sick of putting someone on IR every week. This has been such a strange season, where it feels like we’re constantly in a state of “just get healthy”, but once one guy comes back someone else goes down. Thus it’s hard to really know the Patriots offensive identity. So please, let’s just be done with the injuries this year.
2. Feed the New Guys – This is as much about protecting Brady, Gronk and Amendola as it is finding who we can trust to come through in the big moments in the playoffs. So continue to put the ball in the hands of Martin, LaFell and whoever they suit up at running back. Who knows, maybe we’ll find a gem ala Jabar Gaffney circa 2006 who can chip in with some key plays in the playoffs.
3. Linebackers Back – Just what does this defense look like with a full strength Jerod Mayo playing alongside experienced veterans Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins? We don’t really know, but it’s certainly exciting to think about and this game could be our first taste of it. The versatility of Collins and Hightower to play on the line of scrimmage with Mayo at MLB taking away the flat all seem like the perfect storm for an unstoppable trio.
4. Special Teams Be Special – Special Teams have had some critical mistakes the last few games and that’s so uncharacteristic of the Patriots and something that absolutely cannot happen in the playoffs. Right now nothing scares me more than a turnover at a critical moment by the special teams in January. They need to restore everyone’s confidence with not just a safe performance, but one that shows why they were the best special teams unit in the league before things started going south against the Eagles.
5. Win – This is the most slamdunk game of the season and the Pats don’t often miss on those. We all know the playoff scenarios and it’s obviously far preferable to keep our fate in our own hands. This just isn’t a game the Pats can lose at this time of year. Most of all it would be nice to get a total team win, setting up the last major showdown of the season with a hungry and surging Jets team.
Prediction: Patriots 42, Titans 6
And now Dominique Easley goes down…
Dominique Easley
was placed on IR today, ending his season early for the second time in his second year. Easley was part of the Patriots pass-rush package, often playing with three defensive ends, and they were putting together the best third down defense percentage since 2009.
As an Easley fan from the get-go, I find this one incredibly frustrating. Sometimes injuries are just freak things, but it’s hard to argue this is a trend for Easley. Both this year and last year’s season-enders are somewhat of a mystery, but along with his double ACL tears in college it also seems like he has an endless parade of other small ailments.
I thought Easley was having a very good season, but not the “breakout super season” some are calling it on Twitter right now. He had his moments and seemed to be getting more and more comfortable, but I still think rookie Malcom Brown has looked like the better and more consistent player this year.
So now what? There’s no question the pass rush is taking a blow. Easley was the most explosive guy off the snap and caused a lot of issues. Now they’ll be forced to either go to a 300+ tackle on third down like Brown, Hicks or Branch. Less likely is the option of using Geneo Grissom who saw some time in this role early in the season when Easley was out.
After Grissom’s punt team snafu against the Eagles I doubt we see him in much action the rest of the season, and certainly not in the playoffs.
Perhaps a creative answer is using Hightower in a rush role in the playoffs. This is only doable if they feel comfortable with Jerod Mayo in coverage.
Aside from Dion Lewis, this is my biggest buzz kill injury of the season and the first major hit to the defense. Still not as bad as it would be to lose Collins, Hightower or one of the big three defensive ends, but Easley’s impact in the most important part of the game is irreplaceable and his absence will be felt on third-and-longs.
Pats Injury Regroup: McCourty high ankle sprain/Blount seen on crutches
After making it through the Eagles game without any major injuries I thought we had turned a corner, but alas it looks like LeGarrette Blount’s out for the immediate future and we’re probably not seeing Devin McCourty until the playoffs either as Jeff Howe reported he has a high ankle sprain.
Losing McCourty is manageable because of the depth at safety. Essentially it means Patrick Chung might be thrust into more coverage as could Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner or Jordan Richards. But it’s a veteran group back there so you’d expect minimal dropoff as fast a communication goes.
If this was mid-season losing Blount would be a huge blow. But given what the Pats have left, they could give him a month off until they’d need him in the divisional round (assuming a bye of course). They should be able to beat the Titans without him, and running him head on into the Jets front is probably not the best strategy anyway. Then hopefully the game in Miami is meaningless.
Still, they need to add an early down back, and that could happen as soon as today. No idea who is out there, but there are a lot of harder positions to fill than an early down hard runner. And no, Jonas Gray is not available.
Finally, I’m running a $10/free shipping sale on all my tees, but supplies are limited and going fast. Head over to the store and grab one before they’re gone forever.
