An Independent Patriots Blog
As I updated everything on the big Pats stat page I keep, it occurred to me that most of the important numbers I track supported what I thought I saw with my eyes.
This wasn’t a dominant offensive team, but it is an underrated defensive one. Inconsistencies on special teams also fed into what set this edition of the BB/TB Pats apart.
Let’s dive into five key stats that defined the inconsistent-but-hopefully-peaking 2018 Patriots.
[Read more…] about 5 Patriots Standout StatsIt was just a couple weeks ago when the Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytic had the Patriots ranking as one of the top five defenses under Belichick. Two games later, things have planed off a bit as you might expect, but there’s one consistent factor that gives the Pats’ defense hope for the playoffs.
Let’s dive into the changes in the four key areas:
[Read more…] about Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytics Updatehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKKjGeraFE
The cat is out of the bag on the 2018 Patriots defense, they’re actually pretty good. Their defining trait not a dominating front seven like the 2001-2007 defenses, but a shutdown secondary and a coordinated front that all work together.
At his core, Bill Belichick is a conservative defensive coach. He wants a defense that tackles well and doesn’t get beat deep. He’ll be aggressive in key spots and disguise plenty but generally, it’s a four-man rush with seven in coverage. When that four-man rush contains and constricts the quarterback they’re extremely effective. When they’re six-man rush stunts do the same they’re dominant.
On the road, they’ve been guilty of being out of sync. In each of the first three months, they had a defensive stinker on the road. Even the win over Kansas City wasn’t great. They were probably a little lucky to escape Chicago with a win.
[Read more…] about Bend Don’t Break Update: ’18 Pats D Hits Top 5
For the last few years I’ve quantified the Patriots maddening-yet-effective Bend-Don’t-Break style of defense as such: Points-per-drive and Turnovers-per-drive measure the “Break” element, while Yards-per-drive and Plays-per-drive measure the “Bend” element. It’s not perfect, but it at least gives me the ability to get a sense of how bendy and breaky each defense of the Bill Belichick era has been.
How does 2017 stack up? Let’s take a look.
[Read more…] about How Does Pats’ 2017 Bend-Don’t-Break Defense Stack Up Historically?
Bend Don’t Break is what frustrated fans know as the Patriots’ favored style of defensive strategy. They don’t sell out by sending a ton of pressure, instead they preach not getting beat deep and good tackling. That forces opposing offenses to continually execute, something most of them can’t do for any sustained period without mistakes, whether it’s third-down red-zone stops, takeaways or missed field goals.
Sometimes, often on the first drive of the game, opponents seem to move the ball right down the field, only to stall out and have to settle for a field goal or worse. From there the Patriots’ constriction begins, often aided by turnovers, and that simply gives Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense enough margin to win the game.
But the BDB leaves a bad taste in many dismissive minds. That’s because the Pats always tend to give up yards. In nine of the last 16 seasons they were in the bottom half of the league in yards-per-drive. The last two seasons saw dramatic improvement, with them finishing 7th in 2015 and 8th in 2016, their best back-to-back seasons under Belichick. Only once (2003) were they inside the top five at 4th.
Your eyes are not deceiving you. Teams consistently move the ball on New England’s defense. They just don’t score, and that’s the Bend Don’t Break.
So how does the 2017 team stack up so far? It’s developed from a total Bend AND Break edition early in the season to one far more typical of the last 16 years of Patriots defenses. Let’s take a look:
[Read more…] about Bend Don’t Break Report: How 2017 Pats D Stacks Up
It’s driven you insane hundreds of times at this point. The Patriots defense is picked apart by a supposedly mediocre offense until miraculously stopping them in the red zone and forcing a field goal. Some seasons it feels like it happens on the first drive of every single game.
Yes, this is the Bend-Don’t-Break, a mantra muttered by football-philes like myself who have bought into Bill Belichick’s philosophy that sound coverage and tackling can make up for not attacking a quarterback with blitzers on every down. The Patriots certainly pick their spots to blitz defensive backs, but generally their philosophy is about 11 guys all doing their jobs and it’s hard to argue with the results even if the stats don’t rank them near the top of the league.
What matters most of course is points, and the Patriots have ranked below 13th in the league in points-per-drive just twice before this season.
My statistical way to breakdown the Bend Don’t Break is to rank plays- and yards-per-drive (BEND) and points- and turnovers-per-drive (BREAK). While the results in 2017 are expectedly putrid they’re not exactly in uncharted territory and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.
Here’s a look at the Bend-Don’t-Break chart to see how the 2017 Pats stack up after five games.
[Read more…] about Bending and Breaking: A Historical B-D-B Look at the 2017 Pats Defense
One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.
It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.
We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.
So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.
[Read more…] about How Bend-Don’t-Break-y is this Patriots Defense?