An Independent Patriots Blog
Plenty to digest from the weekend’s slate of games. Most importantly, the Patriots now have a two game lead in the AFC East. Without Tom Brady. Yup.
One more against the Bills at home, and then our sweet prince shall return and all will be right with the football world once again.
Across the AFC the usual suspects are rising to the top of heap early in the season.
This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.
To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?
The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.
Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.
There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.
Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.
When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.
You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.
But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.
The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.
So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.
Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.
Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.
If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.
The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.
It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.
I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.
The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.
Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.
It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.
But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.
Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.
1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.
2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.
3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.
4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.
5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17
AFC Championship could swing on Phillips’s schemes
Lots of good stuff on Pats-Broncos in here from Bedard, including some advice for Wade Phillips. Phillips’ approach in this one will be immediately apparent and the more curves he can throw at Brady/Belichick to decipher initially the more possessions they can buy their offense. If managed correctly that could take it down to the wire. But Brady/Belichick will figure it all out eventually.
Lots to talk about already this week, but I feel like I’ve been a little overwhelmed by what a victory on Sunday would mean for this entire BB/TB run. Really trying not to think about it, but yeah, it would mean a lot and bring many things full circle that have been lingering for a long time (like 2005/2006/2013 season-enders).
There will be plenty of time to talk about that if/when the Pats take care of business. I already made the mistake in SB46 of assuming that all wrongs would be righted by the BB/TB dynasty, at least on the time frame we thought they should be righted.
But imagine sending both Tom Coughlin and Peyton Manning, two of the biggest thorns in our sides off into the sunset together this season. At that point playing in the Super Bowl would just be the frosting on top. And if you look at the Super Bowl odds, it seems like Vegas likes the Pats back in the big game.
We didn’t know who the 2015 Patriots were coming into last week, whether they were the banged-up-and-broken team that went 2-4 down the stretch or the team that raced out to 10-0. From the looks of it against the Chiefs they’re closer to the 10-0 version and we have every reason to expect that team to show up in Denver Sunday.
Now, after avenging last year’s MNF beatdown and finally beating Eli, Coughlin and the Giants for the first time since 2007, things are finally set up in the AFC Championship to close the door on a number of other open wounds from the last decade. There wouldn’t be the same poetic justice opportunity in the Super Bowl, but a win this weekend would really cement the 2015 Pats in the pantheon of Brady/Belichick teams. Because for the most part thus far, the 2015 Pats haven’t been all that memorable save just a couple games.
Couple things to touch base on…
– So yeah, the Broncos are already yapping in the media, saying Brady is a cry baby and Gronk pushes off and the only way to take Gronk out is to go low. Clearly they’re already trying to butter up the refs a bit, which I take as a great sign. If you’re that convinced already that you’re going to need help from the refs to win the game?
And I’m not really sure how a Broncos player complaining to media so that the refs won’t bite when Brady gives them a look after taking a late hit well… kinda the same thing there as what you’re accusing Brady of and definitely more pathetic.
At least the Broncos see the same thing I’m seeing – that they’re going need every call going their way if they’re to have a chance.
– Jerod Mayo goes onto IR for the third year in a row. Rough stretch for Mayo and with his cap hit next year there’s little doubt the Pats will decline his option. And I doubt there will be much interest on the external market for a player who’s been knocked out of the season three straight years. Mayo just didn’t have the same burst/pop to him this year. He started to make some strides near the end, but coming back from a torn patellar tendon is no joke. He might’ve been better served starting on PUP.
I could see Mayo easily back next year on a bare minimum deal. Regardless, adding linebacker depth will be a priority this season. I’ll save my panic about every Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming snap for a later post this week but yeah, this whole game comes down to Hightower and Collins for me. If those two guys can finish the game, playing north of 80% of the snaps, the Pats really should shut down the Broncos running game.
Much, much more to come as the longest week I can ever remember drags on…
Time to start rolling out some old Pats-Broncos games. (via Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots. 2nd Half. Patriots Comeback – YouTube)
https://www.patspropaganda.com/time-to-start-rolling-out-some-old-pats-broncos/
I think I get more nervous for a playoff game that the Patriots should win than one where it’s a toss up. Make no mistake, after the way these two teams looked this weekend, the Patriots should win this game. Well, based on how Denver’s looked all season, squeaking out wins after fortuitous mistakes by their opponents, the Patriots should win this game.
But it’s in Denver and that’s what scares me, because things have traditionally been shaky in Denver for the Patriots especially in the playoffs. But it’s hard to see the player Peyton Manning is now and worry that he’s suddenly going to be tossing it all over the field on our defense like it’s two-plus years ago.
You have to respect the Broncos ground game, but if that gets shut down and the big plays to Sanders and Thomas are taken away, it would line up similarly to how the Chiefs game went – lot of regular personnel on defense to crowd the box and kill the running game, press their receivers and make Manning consistently hit 10+ yard passing plays to win the game.
Amazingly this flips the script on BB’s usual Peyton gameplan, where you’d concede the run to take the game out of his hands. It really just comes down to how healthy Collins and Hightower can be, because with both of them in there, the Broncos will struggle to consistently run the ball.
What scares me is that for the Patriots to lose this game they’re going to have to have a lot of mistakes, a lot of calls go against them and just get none of the bounces. Because with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup New England should really move the ball at will. Put it this way – with Gronk and Edelman in the lineup the Pats are 4-0 against the Broncos.
I am all about the season-long narrative with my Pats coverage. I like meaningful games and there’s no better narrative, no more meaningful game than having to go back to Denver, where the 2015 season started to fall apart from its perfect start.
The Pats already avenged a brutal loss from last season, and now they have the chance to avenge both the 2013 AFCCG loss and the earlier loss this season. Denver has been a tough place for Brady over the course of his career. What a perfect chance to finish off those demons this weekend.
