In the brief few days since the Patriots held on to beat the Colts you probably haven’t heard much about the Detroit Lions. If you’re a regular reader here you definitely haven’t. In fact there’s probably only one thing you heard if anything at all:
Before we get to the Lions let’s talk a little bit about “Trap” games. I guess the definition of a trap game is when a good team is on a roll and/or has a big game coming up but first must play a team that, on paper, looks like shit.
Sometimes it could be boiled down to simply any time a good team plays a shitty team. But with a huge matchup on the Pats’ horizon with the Jets on MNF this Lions game fits the classic ‘trap’ game definition.
Calling it a trap game implies that the better team will overlook the inferior-on-paper team and thus be half-assed in their preparations.
Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz and Bill Simmons debated if trap games are a reality on Simmons’ podcast this week. Schatz said they don’t exist, that in the modern NFL any team can beat any team. Records don’t matter. On any given week a team that has looked horrible can put it together and play well. Just like on any given week a team that has looked great can look like crap.
The players understand this and never overlook a game.
Simmons of course disagreed and thought that this was human nature to overlook a challenge you think you’re superior to. It’s also hard to get those competitive juices flowing when you don’t have any kind of a rivalry with a team.
Personally I side with Schatz, especially because we’re talking about the Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. This team has been in close, hard fought games with teams of every kind of record or reputation. Stats are for losers, and that includes the stat of a team’s overall record. Belichick will absolutely make sure his team knows it’s in for a dogfight.
Tom Brady was already looking at the Lions on Sunday night after beating the Colts just hours earlier. I am not worried that the Patriots will overlook the Lions. Nor do I believe that any single player on the Patriots believes they will just show up, blow Detroit out, and be home in time for turkey.
Because the reality is that the Lions are not the bumbling, stumbling Lions of old. This is a team that competes hard on every snap. They are still rough around the edges and have their weaknesses, but they will not be walked over, especially at home.
Let’s not forget that the Patriots have yet to hold a passer under 300 yards. Granted they’ve faced some very good offenses, but they have not proven they can shut down anyone’s passing attack. And guess what, the Lions are 6th in the NFL in passing yards.
So yes the Lions are 2-8 and have a reputation for being one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past decade but that record and rep are deceiving.
The Lions are 2-2 at home this year and their two losses were by just 3 points each. And anyone who saw the Jets game knows the Lions should’ve won that.
The other loss? Oh just a close 35-32 shootout loss to the mighty Philadelphia Eagles.
The Patriots coaches and players are well aware of all these stats and many, many more. This is not a trap game. This will be a sizable challenge game.
The Lions have a revamped defensive line led by Ndamukong Sug and Kyle Vanden Bosche. The Patriots offensive line better be ready for them, because they will be coming hard and fast, just like the rest of the Lions team.
The Patriots will also have their hands full with Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, who in the words of BB is “never covered”.
If the Patriots win this game most will write it off as just “taking care of business” but the reality is that the Lions are the type of offense that this young defense badly needs a good performance against.
If the Lions have seen what the rest of us have seen (and I’m pretty sure they have) they will attack the Patriots through the air early and often. Detroit’s stellar rookie running back Jahvid Best has been battling a foot injury and the Patriots defense has been excellent the last two weeks against the run. So I don’t expect them to try to move the ball on the ground much.
If the Patriots are to make a run in January their pass defense must improve or else they’ll be forced to rely on take aways to stay in games. That’s not something you want.
Shutting down Shaun Hill and a formidable receiving corps featuring Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson would send a message to those who pay attention and give confidence to the young Pats defense.
Beating this Lions team in their house will not be an easy task. This is their Super Bowl and the short week for prep levels the playing field somewhat. If you still think this is a trap game you’re in for a nerve wracking start to your Thanksgiving day. It will be close. The Lions will move the ball. But if the Patriots stick to what has gotten them to 8-2, playing mistake-free football, executing on offense and bending but not breaking on defense they should be able to pull it out.
And if the defense can hold Hill under 300 yards it would be a big step in the right direction.
Do Not Underestimate This Decepticon
