deflategate

With the public release of the transcript from Tom Brady’s appeal hearing, along with a ton of emails and records from the NFLPA relating to the case, Deflategate continues to look worse and worse for the NFL.

While the oddsmakers at www.NFL-Online-Betting.com await the final ruling of whether Brady will be playing the first four games of the season, Brady’s legal team has mounted a pile of evidence that could be used to clear him entirely.

The problem for me is if Brady’s punishment is wiped out, what about the $1 million fine and loss of two draft picks including a first-rounder? Really, that’s what hurts the most and the one thing I can’t get out of my mind.

I wrote up a bunch of thoughts last night after reading the transcript from the hearing, and as details continue to emerge from all the communications released by Brady’s camp, there are some key points I glossed over too quickly or missed entirely.

The first is a great point by NESN.com’s Doug Kyed who points out that when upholding Brady’s punishment, Commissioner Goodell made a point that Brady didn’t acknowledge his conversations with John Jastremski after the AFCCG had anything to do with the controversy surrounding Deflategate. 

But in the transcript it’s clear that Brady absolutely did mention that was part of their discussions.

This is just another prime example of how the NFL tailored every detail to how they wanted Deflategate framed, even if it meant lying about Brady’s testimony.

Then comes an email from the Colts special teams coordinator to GM Ryan Grigson saying the Ravens had tipped them off about the ball stuff, but NONE of it makes any sense.

This is probably worth an entire investigation itself. The Ravens were complaining about not having their K balls (the balls used in the kicking game) which are supposed to be BRAND NEW. Instead the refs gave them other balls? How does this relate to the Pats and PSI?

It’s as if the Colts used this as an excuse to alert the NFL to rumors that the Patriots liked their own prepared footballs “small” as Grigson put it. I don’t see the connection between the Ravens’ tip about their own K balls to the Colts extrapolating it had something to do with the Patriots balls. 

And of course then the Ravens come out this morning and once again deny any involvement. Maybe I am naive but I always took John Harbaugh at his word. I wanted to believe Harbaugh had a lot of respect for Belichick and to be honest, I didn’t even really hold his comments after the playoff game about the formations as that egregious.

Unless the Colts’ special teams coordinator manufactured this as a way to make a rumor something that should be watched out for, which I consider a long shot, I now believe there’s little doubt the Ravens were involved and refuse to let it be without a denial. So confusing.

The more details that emerge from the Brady transcript the worse it looks for the NFL’s case. As I wrote last night, the ship has sailed whether Brady did or didn’t order the code deflate. No one is convincing those who see Brady “destroyed” his phone or the “getting them done” and “deflator” texts as proof positive Brady is guilt. Because those are really the only things they can cling to, while every other bit of actual evidence and firsthand testimony says otherwise.

What matters now is whether or not the punishment process was fair and as many other lawyers have already pointed out, there are plenty of instances where it was not in the appeal.

I now think the settlement entirely depends on whether the NFL will accept Brady not admitting guilt. If they will, then I could see Brady taking a fine and MAYBE one game. MAYBE.

But I like our chances if the NFL won’t budge on that point and forces the judge to rule.

I just poured through the 118-page, double columned document and it took me almost three hours. What does it reveal? That I have a glaring headache now. But hopefully I can help break it down for those of you who have real lives and aren’t slaves to Deflategate like I’ve become.

Here’s how I’d break it down in simplest terms, because there really aren’t any major new revelations here – Brady was exactly how you’d expect – denied any involvement and most interestingly, said he never had any knowledge of any PSI rules before the Jets game in October when the ball was overinflated by the referees. 

Brady details his process of breaking in and choosing balls and how once he chooses his game balls that’s the last he sees of them until the field. Also, that the 2006 rule change was solely about the feel of the ball. Pressure never really mattered to him because he doesn’t squeeze the ball. He compared it to how you hold a golf club. That made sense to me.

The science of the Exponent report is the most debated piece of evidence in this whole hearing, with experts from both sides testifying why it was or wasn’t accurate. The main point of Brady’s defense was the timing of it all, how the Colts balls had time to warm up and thus appeared less deflated. 

You’d need degrees in physics and economics to be able to sift through those arguments and figure out who is right. I sure couldn’t, but the timing element is the area everyone has questioned.

Regardless of whose science you believe, what’s clear is that no one knows exactly how temperature, water and the general pounding the balls take in a game affect them. You can do a bunch of experiments on them and there’s still no way to be certain if someone stuck a needle in them.

So, we’ll just have to wait and see how the data plays out now that the NFL will be keeping track. But I’d bet it won’t be clean and easy.

Ted Wells likes to talk and he’s a big part of the reason this thing went so late into the night. He seemed excited to not only detail how he put the Wells Report together but defend every aspect of it. But what Jeffrey Kessler attacked primarily was how “independent” the investigation was. It was also fun when Kessler went down the list of all the pro-Brady details that Wells “disregarded”.

Kessler went hard after how much involvement the NFL had in The Wells Report, with Wells admitting NFL attorney Jeff Pash saw early drafts of it. The fact that Wells’ co-worker Lorin Reisner was then the NFL’s attorney at this hearing was not lost on anyone. 

It’s undeniable, The Wells Report had the NFL’s fingerprints all over it and from what we’ve seen in the past week, it doesn’t seem like the NFL was willing to give the Patriots any kind of benefit of the doubt, at the very least.

Of everything this might be the NFL’s biggest problem in court, because there are a lot of facts adding up that easily paint a picture of the NFL not only being out to get New England from the start but that there never was an “independent” investigation.

Kessler clearly laid the groundwork for Brady also to have an out on the technicality of never being given the rulebook that says the footballs had to be in between 12.5 and 13.5 PSI. Brady goes out of his way to mention he was never even aware of PSI until after that Jets game in October of 2014.

Brady seemed intent on driving that point home and it was no accident.

This was also the same game John Jastremski texted his fiancee after, writing “the balls are supposed to be at 13″. Why would he lie to her? That’s the only text that says anything about any actual PSI number.

Look, there’s no denying Brady “destroying” his phone or the “getting them done” and “deflator” texts paint a nefarious picture that is easy to fill the blanks around. Those who think Brady was masterminding a plot to deflate the footballs below the legal level will never be convinced otherwise at this point.

When you boil it down, those are the only three bits of circumstantial evidence that the NFL’s case depends on.

But Brady’s suspension doesn’t depend on that, because neither side dropped any bombs in this hearing that change what we already knew. Brady’s case now depends on a fair process from the NFL and as far as that goes, I think Brady and Kessler laid the groundwork that it was not fair.

I am so ready to be done with this whole thing and just starting enjoying football games again.