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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Miami Dolphins

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These Thursday night games sneak up on you fast, especially after my whirlwind trip to the Pats-Jets game last weekend. If the Pats can just get through this one with a win they’ll get their final small break before the drive to the playoffs really begins. These couple extra days of rest can make a big difference, especially for guys like Jabaal Sheard
 and Marcus Cannon
 who we’ll definitely need down the stretch.

This is the Dolphins team everyone thought we’d see in 2015. Yes, they started off terrible but since Dan Campbell took over during their bye week they look like a new team. 

The most interesting part of this game to me is the coaching matchup. It’s a short week. It might be a little wet out. Guys are still sore. For a coach like Belichick, he knows how to handle this. But Campbell is getting his first taste of it and after ramping up the physicality in practice, the Dolphins won’t be hitting this week.

But it’s more than just game prep, it’s about in-game adjustments. These new Dolphins want a street fight, which the Patriots are more than capable of playing, but what happens when the Dolphins have to adjust to the new twists the Patriots will throw at them? Will Campbell and his staff know the answers and be able to implement them? Because playing the Patriots puts as much pressure on a coaching staff as it does the opposing players.

Campbell has been praised for simplifying the Dolphins approach on both sides of the ball, so it seems a stretch to think he has any major curveballs up his sleeve for the Patriots. More likely, Belichick knows exactly what they’re doing and what is needed to stop it. 

It’s a big opportunity for the Pats to move to 7-0 overall, 3-0 in the division and essentially put a stranglehold on the division crown.

Here’s the gameplan…

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Offensive Gameplan

I’ve really enjoyed writing the offensive gameplans this year because they’re really quite simple. Do what you do, Patriots, because no one has stopped it consistently yet.

Obviously having Dion Lewis back would be a huge bonus. I’m surprised that no one really seems to mention how useful he would’ve been against the Jets. He is the lead back now for the Scalpel (fka Dink and Dunk) as the Patriots will spread out the defense, see how they want to play and then go to work exploiting the matchups that favor them.

There aren’t many defenses out there that can match up with the Dion Lewis we saw the first four games of the season and the Dolphins certainly aren’t one.

I do have some concerns about the lessened athleticism at the tackle spots. Neither Vollmer nor Fleming move particularly well, but both are strong once they get their hands on rushers. Still, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are going to make some plays here. They just can’t be allowed to unravel the gameplan because both tackles need help.

The Dolphins are third in DVOA covering tight ends, so that adds some intrigue to a team’s latest attempt to slow down Rob Gronkowski.

But perhaps the biggest area I’m curious about is once the Pats feel the defense is loosened up enough to put LeGarrette Blount in. If there’s one statistical area Miami has been light years better at with Campbell it’s run defense. Before Campbell they were giving up 160.6 rushing yards-per-game. In the last two games they’ve give up 134 total.

Their defense is playing up to their potential now. Ndamukong Suh and safety Reshad Jones looked outstanding against the Texans and are just the kind of players who, on the right night, can give the Patriots problems.

The Dolphins are better now, but it’s still a huge task to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, especially on a short week. If the Dolphins defense wins the physical battle in the trenches, they could pull off the upset. The Patriots must keep the Dolphins on their heels and hopefully in their own heads trying to adjust to what twists the Pats are throwing at them.

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Defensive Gameplan

Ryan Tannehill was in the zone last week against the Texans. Every pass he calmly threw was perfectly placed, hitting his receivers in stride and allowing them to turn short catches into long runs.

Can Tannehill be that good week in and week out? I’m not convinced of that, but he is certainly the second-best quarterback in the AFC East right now and could enter the conversation as one of the brightest rising QBs in the league if he can continue to play with that kind of effortless accuracy.

But the Patriots have a way of making opposing offenses play left-handed so to speak. The throws that Tannehill was making last week had to make Belichick smile, because in many ways it was a lot like what Brady and the Patriots offense do. Find the right matchup, get the ball out on time and let the playmakers go to work.

So this means the defense will need a gameplan like the ones we usually see against our offense – taking away the short passing game. Forcing Tannehill to hold the ball and make the deeper throws. Whether this is done with playing tight man coverage like the Pats did against Fitzpatrick last week, or loading up the short zones is something I’m interested to see.

But perhaps more important is tackling. That sounds simple, but that’s really what killed a Texans team who put together what might be the worst half of football I’ve seen in a long time last week. So much of the Dolphins’ damage was done after multiple missed tackles, and on a short week of rest with guys still banged up, there might be less desire to get down and dirty when it comes to tackling. 

Tannehill is making the tough throws right now, and unless the Pats’ pass rush wakes up after their slumber against the Jets, it’s hard to see them totally taking him off his game. So limiting the yards-after-catch is vital with good, sound tackling. When you’re playing on short rest the fundamentals can be the first things to suffer, that can’t happen against Miami.

But the other problem is Lamar Miller who has 288 yards rushing in his last two games. The Patriots proved that they could stop the run when they wanted to last week against the Jets (and spare me the “Ivory was hurt” line, there was nothing there for him even if he was healthy) but can they commit seven or eight to the box with the way Tannehill is throwing the ball? That leaves less margin for error on tackling and puts a lot of pressure on Devin McCourty on the back end.

It will be an interesting balance for the Patriots defense this week, but this is a very similar passing offense to the one they see every day. 

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Tackle – I mentioned this before and I’m mentioning it again because I really think the Patriots defense will be as good as they tackle in this one. If Dolphins receivers are catching quick passes, breaking tackles and getting big gains, the Patriots could lose. Completions will happen, but if the receivers are wrapped up and put down right at the catch, like the Pats defense usually does, it will force Tannehill to continue to execute and I don’t think he has the patience that Brady does yet. That will lead to mistakes and incompletions.

2. Stop Run in Sub – Last week the Pats focused their attention on stopping Chris Ivory with a heavy box, but this week the Dolphins passing offense scares me more than the Jets’ did because the excel in an area that always gives the Patriots defense trouble. That means there will be more need to stop the run with the sub defense, an area that often gets pummeled when the Patriots lose games. Alan Branch has been getting better and better, as has rookie Malcolm Brown. They’ll be big keys along with Dominique Easley on those 2nd and 3rd downs with intermediate yardage to go.

3. Weather the Dolphins DL Storm: The Dolphins defensive line is too good not to make some plays in this one, but the Patriots must make sure those plays are isolated and don’t compound upon each other. They’ve done a good job dealing with Suh in the past, but he’s never been paired with edge rushers like Wake and Vernon. For the second week in a row the Pats face a DL specifically built to attack them. The quick passing game can mitigate a lot of the DL’s potential impact, but staying focused through the ups-and-downs will be critical.

4. Curveballs: Belichick must throw some curveballs at Dan Campbell and see how he adjusts. The Dolphins want this to be a street fight. They don’t want to be forced to think and adjust on the fly. That will put them into a place where they can exposed and beaten. So giving them things they haven’t seen before will be the best route to get them there.

5. Win: I don’t want to say this game is effectively for the AFC East division title, but it’s pretty close. The Pats won’t see the Jets or Dolphins again until the end of the season. That means they’d be one home win over Buffalo away from being 4-0 in the division and that would probably lock things up. But we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. A win and then getting a couple days off would be just what the Patriots need right now. They need to cut loose with one more good performance and then they can regroup and put all their focus into the late-season surge to the playoffs.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

Pats Posits: September Stinker Now Out of Way?

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Like I usually do with a loss, I like to go back and take a closer look immediately and then put it behind us. What can you say about this game? It was pretty much like all season openers go, especially in the division.

We all remember wins over the Bills in 2009 and 2013 that were just about miracles, and 2009 was at home. Or how about the 2012 loss at home to the Cardinals who wouldn’t win another road game all year.

The month of September is always good for at least one Pats stinker and let’s hope this one was it. And really, this could’ve very well been the toughest divisional game they’ll play all year.

The September stinker might tell you where some of the team’s weaknesses are right now, but the result won’t tell you much about where this team will be at the end of the season.

One loss and a lot of the pundits want to change the scheme or criticize the moves of the offseason. The truth is this was just a sloppy football game in tough conditions, but there was plenty to like about this team and plenty to build on.

Give me sound tackling and a few less avoidable penalties and this is a different game. 

Here are some things that stuck out to me on the rewatch:

Easley played up and down the left side of the defensive line, from 0-technique to 3- and 5- technique, including the only DT on pass rush third down package. At least until Buchanan comes back it seems like he’s their top DPR. Getting Chris Jones back should help manage some of his snaps. But I saw good explosion and disruption from him considering this was his first game action in over a year and first NFL game. I continue to be excited about what he’ll do.

Plenty of 34/43 talk today, but it’s all semantics and the same guys playing no matter if they are standing or have a hand in the dirt. The thing to analyze is where those guys are playing. Chandler Jones at 5-tech is questionable, but he showed he can get to the QB from that spot, he just can’t hit them in the head.

The schematic change was Ninkovich at SOLB and Hightower at WOLB in more of a pass rush role. Ninkovich was coming off in sub-packages and only played 35 of 74 snaps. Is this more a statement about Ninkovich or Hightower? I’m not sure. But Hightower flashed a few times in this new role despite some sizable errors as well.

Solder, Vollmer, Devey, Cannon – they were all bad and sometimes they were beat on simple stunts that should not be a problem to pick up. That goes to communication and experience, both of which were lacking with some many guys rotating and changing positions. They need to find what works and stick with it.

I don’t think there is any question Stork gets a shot at center once he’s healthy. All options must be on the table. I think Devey was out of his league yesterday.

I have my concerns that Mayo is going to struggle moving back inside like we saw in 2009. He seemed less effective having to get off blocks, something the entire defense struggled with. Again, that’s something that will be better as conditioning and experience improve.

I like Joe Vellano’s hustle but he cannot hold the point of attack. The Wilfork/Siliga combo inside is intriguing in base but they’re going to have to be better stopping the run from their sub defense.

Speaking of Siliga, I loved the burst and strength I saw out of him. Once he gets that cast off he should be even more effective, but I thought he was a bright spot.

There was a rotating door at safety, using Arrington and Ryan in over-the-top coverage. McCourty the FS. Harmon (4 snaps only), Chung (47 snaps) in box, even Wilson (22 snaps) all saw time. I think this is BB using his smarter corners in off coverage where they can pattern read and jump routes. The traditional strong safety is a dying breed.

Pats were in “base” 42% of the snaps. They’ve been between 31-40% the last four seasons. It would seem like they’re trying to go back toward more base, at least after one game (which admittedly could be an outlier).

Revis should’ve had a pass defended on the touchdown he gave up. Great play by receiver to hold on to ball. Revis was smooth and in position all afternoon. Hard to find much fault with him, sometime the other team just make great plays to beat great players.

Dennard/Butler gave up some catches, but were feisty and right there. It would appear that Dennard is now firmly over Arrington as an outside corner. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

There were blown tackles everywhere, a sign of how much less tackling there is in training camp. It’s something that will be fixed so I’m not too worried. It was just so frustrating to see guys almost stopped in the backfield only to squirm out of the tackle and pick up positive (and one time scoring) yardage.

LaFell had a bad game but it’s tough to be the new receiver when the QB isn’t trusting the protection. The Pats severely lacked what he and Dobson should be bringing to the party.

Where was Amendola? This is something to monitor. For whatever reason it seems like Brady just doesn’t find him. 

I thought the Pats hid Chung in coverage pretty well. Clearly he brings an attitude and some physicality. It seems almost an attempt to offset some of the loss of Brandon Spikes.

The simplest criticism: Get off blocks, make tackles. Everyone on defense struggled to disengage, especially in the run game. And even when they did, they tended to miss the tackle.

It’s not what anyone wants to hear because it’s not sexy, but everyone just needs to play better. They’re all capable of getting off blocks and wrapping up their tackles, they just weren’t prepared to do it in Miami for whatever reason.

The run defense down the middle will continue to be a spot to watch as Jamie Collins is athletic in space but is not a downhill presence in the run game. He also looked out of gas at the end of the game when the Pats gave up the last long touchdown drive.

As for the offense, the line has to be better. There’s still a lot of talent there and I expect this game to be a good kick in the pants that they need. 

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[O]f running back Knowshon Moreno’s 134 rushing yards, 50 came after initial contact. The Patriots have only allowed 50 or more rushing yards after contact three times in the last three seasons, and Moreno, the former Denver Bronco, was the back for two of those games (Week 12 of 2013, 79 yards after contact).

New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

Sloppy and correctable.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/of-running-back-knowshon-morenos-134-rushing/

Patriots lose opener in Miami, fall to 0-1 for first time since 2003

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The Patriots dropped their season opener in Miami to the Dolphins, in a game that saw them take nine penalties for 100 yards and give up 200 yards on the ground.

The Pats looked good in the first half, with two sustained touchdown-scoring drives. But they never came out of the locker room in the second half. This drive chart shows how dead they were offensively.

It was fitting that there was a problem with a long snap that started the Pats’ problems. After cutting Danny Aiken last weekend, only to re-sign him Friday wasn’t the best thing for the player and it came back to cost them.

As expected there were a bunch of penalties and missed tackles, those can be cleaned up, but it was still disappointing to see the Patriots play so undisciplined. Miami figured it out and overcame the turnover problems they had in the first half. New England fell apart.

If Miami doesn’t have three giveaways in the first quarter is this game even close?

The run defense up the middle scared me coming into this one, and it looks like I was right to worry. Without Spikes and limited size/depth at defensive tackle, the Pats were gashed over and over in the second half. 

The concerns about the offensive line’s protection were valid and the whole offensive line looked overwhelmed in the second half. Rotating players didn’t seem to help.

Still, it’s just the first game of the season and things are never quite as bad as they may seem. The Pats have a tall task with Adrian Peterson next week though and they’ll have to fix their problems.

But take out the penalties and the missed tackles and there are the makings for a good defense, if only they can stop the run.

Offensively they were off their rhythm in this one for sure, but they’ll find it. They always do.

It Is What It Is » 5 things you have to know about Dolphins

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It Is What It Is » 5 things you have to know about Dolphins

Good way to kick off season opener week! Certainly makes bouncing back from a long weekend a little early.

No matter how these two teams end up finishing the season, this one is going to be hotly contested with the outcome likely in doubt until the fourth quarter. That’s just how divisional season openers go. The fact that it’s in Miami only reinforces that this is going to be a hot, sweaty war. Yay!

New England Patriots game chance for Miami Dolphins to make statement | The MMQB with Peter King

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New England Patriots game chance for Miami Dolphins to make statement | The MMQB with Peter King

So true, but there have been plenty of games like this in recent memory. Games where the Pats’ opponent was supposed to rise up and prove they were for real, only to get once again dismantled by the Pats.

The timing seems perfect for the Dolphins, but will they seize the moment? It will take a full game of near-perfect football from them. Should make for a fantastic atmosphere and a great game between two teams looking to make a definitive statement about their season.