The NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday night so today we will look at a few future replacements for Matthew Slater. Trying to keep up with all of the movement ahead of Draft weekend is hard, the top online sportsbooks are updating the odds on where some future skill position players might get taken.
Where we stand:
The Patriots have the best Special Teams Unit from top to bottom in the entire NFL. When you have a generational talent in Punter Jake Bailey you need to surround him with weapons on the outside. Currently the Patriots are stacked with Matthew Slater, Justin Bethel, and Cody Davis.
Bethel just signed a new contract keeping him in Foxboro through 2023, Davis is signed through 2022, and Slater has one year left on his current deal. Matthew is a key part of the Patriots dynasty both on and off the field. The true locker room and spiritual leader of the squad. Those intangibles are nearly impossible to replace but something tells me that Slater will hang them up and retire after this season. He seems focused on his family, faith, and life after football too much to not walk away with his health on his on terms. A lock for the Patriots Hall of Fame no doubt. With that being said, Slater has earned the right to keep signing one-year deals with the Patriots until he says otherwise.
Justin Bethel is one of the more underrated players in the NFL. The duo of Slater and Bethel is a nightmare for opposing special teams coaches. Add in Jake Bailey and this trio very well could be the best punting unit ever assembled. Davis showed some promise last year prior to his rib injury and I expect to see him elevate his game next season.
What we need:
With Slater (turning 36), Bethel (turning 31), and Davis (turning 32) all on the second half of their careers the Patriots will look to restock on Special Teams Aces. No coach in the NFL values the art of special teams more than the Dark Lord Belichick. This will be a late round draft pick or UDFA who comes in and probably sits on the Practice Squad for a year before he really contributes. Good chance this person could also find themselves with the “Foxboro Flu” and end up on season ending IR prior to cutdown day. Either way expect this person to most likely have a redshirt year in 2021.
The Patriots could also look to play Joejuan Williams more in the gunner role as he saw increased snaps on special teams in 2020 due to injuries.
Draft Options:
There are 3 main prospects and one bonus prospect. I lean towards Avery Williams as being the Patriots’ guy due to his impressive career at Boise State, position versatility, and high ceiling. Spend an early 6th rounder to get him.
Avery Williams (CB) – 7th Round – Boise State
Coverage and return ability. 9 career special teams touchdowns. Good mechanics. Leader both on and off the field. Workhorse and tough. Safety, Corner, Running back flex, and special teams capability. Undersized and draws excessive penalties.
Racey McMath (WR) – 7th Round/UDFA – LSU
Athletic build, good speed, plays through contact, only two career drops, blocks well. Stuck behind an impressive list of LSU WRs so Racey used special teams to get on the field. Made 6 tackles and 1 forced fumble playing gunner. Speed, size, and power combination made him a special teams threat. Good work ethic. Has slot potential but does not project primarily as an NFL WR. Below average production when on the field as a WR. Star potential as an NFL Gunner.
Robert Rochell (CB) – 4th Round Grade – Central Arkansas
While Rochell will not be a special teams only player his entire career it could help him see action early on. This could be a great depth piece while we have Gilmore and Jackson this year then assuming one of them walks during free agency next season the Patriots have Rochell to slide in.
Great mix of speed and size. Nice footwork, instinct, and reaction time. Smart player that plays to his advantages. Great utilization of long arms. Jumps in on run support. Needs to add build to his body. Struggles with hip timing. Bites on initial route. Lack of top competition. NFL athleticism.
*Bonus Prospect* – Miller Forristall (TE) – UDFA Grade – Alabama
Miller was his high school’s quarterback until a guy named Trevor Lawrence came along and then Forristall flipped to TE. Miller struggled to put up great numbers while at Bama but played all four years that he was healthy mainly as a blocker. For his career he totaled 44 recs for 505 yards and 5 TDs. He is an above average blocker with a high compete level. I could see the trust between Saban and Belichick getting Forristall a camp invite where he sticks on the practice squad during 2021. His projected role would be a blocking TE, special teams contributor, and hybrid flex.
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Mock Draft Review – Who the experts are predicting the Patriots to select first
With hundreds of mock drafts doing the rounds in the lead-up towards night one of the 2021 Draft, let’s take a look at who some experts have decided for the Patriots pick in the first round along with my thoughts for each prediction.
Pick 10 – QB Justin Fields
Mel Kiper Jr – ESPN – April 13
With only one of the top five quarterbacks still available, the Patriots jump five spots with the Cowboys, giving Dallas their 2022 first-round pick in return. The Cowboys don’t need a quarterback, so they’d be thrilled to get an offer like this and move down only a few spots, because their biggest holes are on defense and they can get a good player at No. 15.
This makes five quarterbacks in the top 10, with Bill Belichick & Co. making the move up for Fields, my second-ranked quarterback. All the moves the Patriots made in free agency showed me that they believe they can get right back into competing for the AFC East title, but I don’t think Cam Newton is the quarterback to get them there. He had too many accuracy issues last season. He’s not the long-term answer. Fields had an up-and-down 2020 season, but he can be a star if he becomes more consistent. And I trust that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will get him there.
My Thoughts: I will be setting off fireworks on draft night if somehow the Pats are able to secure Fields, but, I just can’t imagine him slipping outside of the top five. A lot of trash news has come out in recent weeks regarding Fields which could impact his stock, it shouldn’t, but that’s the only way I can see the Patriots getting within reach past number 10, other than trading up to four.
Also predicted to Patriots by:
Todd McShay – ESPN
Pick 15 – QB Trey Lance
Steve Palazzolo – PFF – April 19
New England is primed to move up for a quarterback on draft night, but the more I let this draft play out, the more comfortable I am with Lance in the middle of the first. He’s a dynamic runner who’s flashed the arm to hit every throw, but his accuracy is a notch below the other four first-round prospects. It’s a good play for New England, who have Cam Newton for one year, and they can take their time with Lance or throw him right into the mix when he’s ready.
My Thoughts: This would be an ideal scenario for Patriots fans, getting a QB in the first round, without giving up your future to do so. I can’t see Lance making it out of the top ten, but if he somehow falls to fifteen, it would be a huge scoop for the Patriots halfway through the first round.
Also predicted to Patriots by:
Josh Edwards – CBS Sports
Ryan Wilson – CBS Sports
Charles Davis – NFL.com
Patriots Draft Primer – Quarterback
Today the “Patriots Draft Primer” segment will take a look at the Quarterback position.
Where we stand:
The Patriots quarterback room is currently made up of Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Jacob Dolegala.
Rumors and analyst commentary have been circulating in recent weeks that Cam Newton’s passing ability will be much better in 2021. Personally, I think that is a cop out statement. It really can’t be any worse than it was in 2020 so of course it is going to be better. Newton has never been known for his accuracy and perhaps his best days are behind him. The Patriots aren’t asking Cam to be Tom, but he must be better than what he showed last season. His style of play seeks out contact at times which is no way to sustain a healthy QB in the NFL. He needs to take care of the ball (both when throwing and when mobilizing outside of the pocket) and know when to get down. Newton’s mechanics, mainly his footwork, were awful during 2020. I expect to see a better performance in 2021 but I am not sure it will be enough, and he isn’t the long-term answer.
I am a big Jarrett Stidham fan from his days at Baylor. He showed promise early on as a gun slinger that translated well to his first year at Auburn. The talks after the 2017 season were that Stidham would be a first round selection in the NFL draft the following year. Stidham was truly a victim of circumstance during the 2018 Auburn season that saw him play behind a decimated offensive line along with his top two pass catching options out with injuries. Gus Malzahn’s wonky Auburn system also did no favors for a QB looking to show off his arm talent. The other rumored landing spots of Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Oregon would have been better landing spots to showcase his skills.
During his first preseason Jarrett put up the best preseason numbers of any quarterback in the Belichick era, including those of Tom Brady and Jimmy G. However, his in-season performances have been less than stellar whenever he has seen game action. Having no 2020 preseason most likely hurt his development, but one would have to think that with all the shake up in 2020 if the staff felt like Stidham had what it took then he would have received a few starts down the stretch. Stidham has the arm, poise, and maturity to be the Patriots starter, but he has yet to show the decision-making ability. I want this to happen so badly, but I think this ship has sailed. Stidham has two more years remaining on his contract.
Patriots Draft Primer – Defensive Tackle
Rolling on with our new “Patriots Draft Primer” segment we will focus in on the Defensive Tackle position.
Where we stand:
The Patriots addressed this position in the off season by bringing in Davon Godchaux and locking up Lawrence Guy long term. They also signed Montravius Adams and Henry Anderson (who projects as more of a Defensive End but can flash into the middle if needed). The above-mentioned join Akeem Spence, Byron Cowart, Carl Davis, Michael Barnett, and Bill Murray to round out the group of true Defensive Tackles.
Lawrence Guy is the most underappreciated defender on the Patriots. He does the little things that do not show up on the stat sheet but are necessary for a successful defense. He slides right back into the #1 DT spot on the depth chart. I do not expect big things from Godchaux or Adams as they will primarily be used as run stuffers. Godchaux has a lengthy injury history and barely any NFL statistics. Adams can be a rotational depth piece on early downs. As things stand now, I would slot Byron Cowart as the #2 DT. I have been impressed with his body of work as he continues to gain more game reps.
What we need:
Our current list of Defensive Tackles leans heavily toward run defenders. We do not have anyone aside from Lawrence Guy who can apply pressure up the middle on passing downs. The Patriots struggled with this middle pressure throughout the entire 2020 season. There are however a good number of options to address this need in the 2021 NFL draft.
Draft Options:
There are roughly 45 Interior Defensive Linemen prospects in this year’s NFL Draft. If the Patriots do not want to spend on the sure thing Barmore at pick #15 then I am all for Nixon, Williams, or Twyman (my personal favorite).
Christian Barmore – 1st Round Grade – Alabama
Explosive, bully to blockers, finds the ball, quick, impressive production within the SEC. Needs to be better conditioned. Versatile. The best pass rushing DT in the draft class. Can struggle in the run game.
Patriots Draft Primer – Wide Receiver
Today kicks off our new segment titled “Patriots Draft Primer” that will focus in on a highlighted position of need leading up to the April 29th NFL Draft. We begin with the Wide Receiver position.
Where we stand:
News broke today that Julian Edelman is doubtful to play a full 2021 season due to his knee injury. Even if he sees some field time Julian is a shell of his former self. The wear and tear of injuries from being Brady’s security blanket over the years is taking its toll. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Edelman hang them due to this.
Aside from Edelman the WR room consists of:
Nelson Agholor
Kendrick Bourne
N’Keal Harry
Jakobi Meyers
Gunner Olszewski
Devin Smith
Isaiah Zuber
Kristian Wilkerson
Matthew Slater (Primarily Special Teams and a blocking decoy)
What we need:
The two traits that this Wideout group lacks are a speed deep threat to take the top off the defense and a big bodied receiver not named N’Keal Harry.
Lets first address the need for speed. The Patriots have been one of the slower wideout groups in the NFL over the past decade. It is almost as if Belichick is afraid of speed. In a league where offenses are spreading wide receivers out and passing more than ever it is fair to say that speed kills. Just take a look at the Chiefs, Bucs, Cowboys, or Falcons Wideout rooms that are laced with speed. The Patriots have also struggled to gain separation which can be solved be increasing our WR speed. They partially addressed this with the addition of Agholor, but I would like to see another piece. Speed depth is crucial in building an offense that is a threat. The chiefs for example have arguably the top WR in the NFL with Tyreek Hill. Surrounding Hill’s speed they had burners in Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle who all had around or below 4.4 speed. This speed depth helps create mismatches against lesser cornerbacks and has the defense secondary always on their heels thinking deep.
Next let’s look at the need for a big bodied WR. N’Keal Harry has the size at 6-3 225 pounds but is afraid to use it. The man is bigger than the majority of secondary players in the NFL, yet he goes down so easily on end around carries when a 6-foot corner back attempts an arm tackle while falling down off the block. There is no excuse for this. Harry should be breaking these using his frame and muscle every time. It leads me to believe that this is a mental battle with Harry more than anything else. Harry has been the discussion of numerous trade talks, but in all honesty, I believe the Patriots hold on to him for one more year. His value potential exceeds the 4th or 5th rounder we will receive in return. The Patriots may defer on this style of WR given the two big Tight Ends they just signed in Free Agency, but it is still worth taking a look at.
Draft Options:
There are 65+ realistic WR options in this year’s NFL draft. Expect the Patriots to double dip on the WR position in some way during the 7 rounds. Here are some fits that would work in the Patriots system.
Should the Patriots trade up for a QB in the Draft?
The first trades for teams to begin moving around in this year’s Draft started at the end of last week, and it’s made me think even more about what might happen on night one of the Draft.
So, it leaves the question on the lips of a lot of Patriots fans, should they trade up and take a QB?
The answer for me, is yes.
Firstly, let’s take a look at what happened with the mega trades last Friday –
The 49ers gave up a lot of capital to get themselves within touching distance of one of the top QB prospects this year, then, the Eagles got a future first-rounder by trading back with Miami to allow them back into the top ten of the first round.
[Read more…] about Should the Patriots trade up for a QB in the Draft?Patriots state of the Roster – Depth Chart Analysis and where the Patriots look in the draft
With the NFL draft and 2021 season just around the corner it is time to take a look at where things stand with the Patriots’ depth chart. It is also a great time to get a jump on your 2021 NFL betting plan by taking a look at the top 5 NFL betting apps on Gamble USA. There are some great offers out there so take advantage now as football betting is only going to become more popular in the future.
Quarterback: (3)
Cam Newton
Jarrett Stidham
Jake Dolegala
If Cam can rebound with a full year under his belt in the Patriots system then the offense could be in decent shape. A lot of 2 Tight End sets should mean shorter passes in a system that is run first to open up the play action. The Patriots will not ask Cam to be Tom Brady, but he must meet us halfway. There was talk about the condition of Newton’s shoulder and how Covid affected him, but the accuracy was laughable at times last year. No long-term plan means the Patriots most likely take a chance on a QB later in the draft. Jamie Newman from Wake Forest (and Georgia for a hot minute) is a project with high potential upside if he can work on his accuracy.
Running Back: (5)
Damien Harris
James White
Sony Michel
JJ Taylor
Brandon Bolden
This running back group is fantastic with the 1-2 punch of Harris and Michel while White and Taylor handle pass catching duties. With James White back on only a one-year deal look for the Patriots to add another running back somewhere in the draft and redshirt them. I do not expect White to be back next offseason and I think either JJ Taylor or the new RB we select in this year’s draft will handle the pass catching duties in 2022. Rex Burkhead is still a free agent and there is a good chance that he finds his way back to Foxboro.
Fullbacks: (2)
Jakob Johnson
Dan Vitale
While many analysts are penciling in Jakob Johnson as the starter, I for one think that the starter is Vitale. Johnson is young and still has a lot to learn about the position. He had some great film last season but was god awful filling in for Devlin two years ago. Vitale offers a type of athleticism that the Patriots have never had at the position. McDaniels should be giddy dreaming up ways to install Vitale into the offense like how the 49ers use Kyle Juszczyk. Someone who is a threat in the play action and can leak out for a big gain. The Patriots can line Vitale up in multiple positions like they used to with Aaron Hernandez. Similarly, Dalton Keene offers athleticism and versatility that could result in him lining up in a flex TE/FB hybrid role.
Wide Receivers: (9)
Nelson Agholor
Jakobi Meyers
Kendrick Bourne
Julian Edelman
N’Keal Harry
Gunner Olszewski
Isaiah Zuber
Kristian Wilkerson
Devin Smith
One thing that this Wide Receiver group lacks is a true speed deep threat that can take the top off the defense. Look for them to add this piece in the draft. Anthony Schwartz (Auburn), Shi Smith (South Carolina), and Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) are all burners that the Patriots could get later in the draft. The current WR group could be a lot weaker than it initially appears if Edelman isn’t good to go and I do not know that Bourne is that much more of an upgrade over Meyers as they both offer a similar skillset. Don’t even get me started on Harry….
Tight End: (5)
Hunter Henry
Jonnu Smith
Devin Asiasi
Dalton Keene
Matt LaCosse
I expect LaCosse to be cut or traded (pick up a nice chunk of cap if that happens), but otherwise this group is stacked. Expect a lot of 2 Tight End sets for both the run game and the play action.
