Good stuff from Doug Kyed at NESN, with a few interesting coverage linebackers. I’m all for taking one of those somewhere along the line.
draft
The Unemployed Academic: Mocking the Mockers
The Unemployed Academic: Mocking the Mockers
Nice work here from Michael Talarski who dives into the professional vs. amateur draft pundit predictions.
If you’re fan of only one sport the off-season can be long and arduous. So you have to find ways to keep yourself entertained. For NFL fans the NFL draft adds a break from the wait. As such it becomes a tad insane. Following the draft can be fun, though it’s hard to educate yourself. The “best”…
Patriots have a second dynasty defense in the making
The biggest focus of my last five years of blogging about the Patriots has been Bill Belichick’s chance to rebuild his defense from scratch and with total authority. While Belichick deserves a great deal of credit for the Patriots defenses that won three Super Bowls, ultimately those defenses were not hand picked by him.
Sure, he took the draftees of the previous regime like Bruschi, McGinest and Milloy, along with a collection of castoffs from other teams like Vrabel, Phifer and Harrison, and put them in positions to succeed, but those years just proved his coaching genius. Those players were not going to play forever, and now Belichick has a chance to prove his scouting and development genius.
It’s rare that a coach has the kind of control and vision that he gets to construct a defense from scratch, but that’s exactly what Belichick began doing in 2008 with the selection of Jerod Mayo.
Thus, one of my most favorite times of year is the draft, especially when Belichick takes defensive players. So you can imagine my excitement after this year’s haul, and in fact it’s taken a few days for it all to actually sink in. It’s safe to say it left me speechless. Until now.
The Patriots struggles with pass defense over the past few seasons are well documented. It’s ironic that on the offensive side of the ball they were one of the teams leading the charge for the new pass-dominated NFL, but on the defensive side of the ball they’ve been continually lit up through the air.
I’ve often joked that I can’t imagine what it has looked like when Tom Brady went up against the Pats defense in practice, but quite frankly it was frustrating. Belichick knows football evolution, and usually he’s ahead of the curve, but on defense they just couldn’t seem to solve the problems that have haunted them for the last two seasons.
We can talk about how they still won a lot of games and didn’t allow a lot of points despite giving up a lot of yards and third down conversions, but the simple truth is this: The Patriots have not had a dominant defense since the dynasty years. They didn’t have a defense that could take over games. They didn’t have a defense that made quarterbacks uncomfortable. They made some big plays at times, got some key stops at times, but consistently week in and week out they were at best an average defense that needed more talent, specifically more game breakers in their front seven especially.
In that regard the 2012 draft was the one we were all waiting for. At least on paper. The Patriots traded up to take two front seven players and spent three more picks on defensive backs, leaving just a single offensive selection with their last pick.
As we’ve been saying this whole off-season the great 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate is moot. The nickel defense is the new base. If you cannot pressure the quarterback with four rushers in today’s NFL you are going to get torched. If you have trouble stopping the run well…you’ll probably still be able to outscore them so who cares. Pondering the 3-4 vs. 4-3 is like pondering what their goal line defense will look like. It really doesn’t matter.
This Patriots draft could be best summed up as “Defensive Diversity”. Every player they selected specifically for their defense can do a number of things, meaning the days of over-specialization are done. Remember 2010 where there would be whole-sale substitutions on defense whether they were playing pass or run? There will be no more of that.
First and foremost this will be a defense with a number of new players who can get after the passer, but also with enough athleticism to play in space, in zone or man-to-man, or anything else that Belichick wants to do to exploit an offense. It also means that opposing quarterbacks are going to have a lot harder time deciphering pre-snap what the Patriots defensive intentions are.
It’s impossible to predict how everything will flush out in training camp this summer. And even then we’ll still have no idea who will be where on a week to week basis. But there’s reason to be excited that the Pats not only replaced the 20 sacks they lost with Mark Anderson’s departure and Andre Carter’s uncertain future in the short term, but that they have diverse pass rush and coverage solutions lined up for the long term.
The Patriots have gotten off the “one year and done” cycle with pass rushers. They now have quite a few edge players that they can develop and nurture within the system, who also aren’t restricted to being one-trick ponies.
I’ve always had a long term view on the defensive rebuild. While it was somewhat of a surprise to get back to the Super Bowl in 2011, I think the real story to be told is how the major elements are in place for this to be a dominant defense until 2020.
And one day I think we’ll look back and see the 2012 draft as the one that was the final major piece in the second Patriots dynasty defense.
Patriots draft day two thoughts
Although the Pats had a universally-praised day one of draft picks there’s still work to be done today and tomorrow. While they only have two second-round picks remaining in the draft, I expect they’ll try to work the trade downs as much as possible to pick up some additional selections. I wouldn’t rule out a potential Brian Hoyer trade as to add some picks as well.
What positions do I see as needs still? Well I think there are a lot of defensive backs that will be available in the next two rounds who could be impact players like Brandon Boykin, DeQuan Menzie and Trumaine Johnson. There are also some running backs that might interest the Pats as well like Robert Turbin.
I also still have quite a few wide receivers that I like who are still available like Mohamed Sanu and Joe Adams.
We’ll see how it all plays out but if I had to bet, I’d go something like this.
- 48th overall: Defensive Back (with return potential perhaps)
- 62nd overall: TRADE DOWN (3rd & 4th round picks acquired)
- 3rd round: Wide Receiver (with return potential if not from previous pick)
12 notes on Patriots draft eve
I always find the draft somewhat anti-climactic. You have three months of build-up with endless possibilities to who your team could add, but by Sunday the Patriots will have a handful of players and all the speculation of who fits and who doesn’t will be dead and buried.
Here are some final quick hit thoughts as we await the Commish taking the stage.
- As much as I see them pop up on various mock drafts I just don’t see it with Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus. I could be wrong on them, and I’d actually be happy if I am, but right now I’m just not convinced they can do enough to warrant a first round selection.
- I am not however questioning my decision to avoid Janoris Jenkins and Dont’e Hightower on the big board. I don’t think Jenkins is worth the risk until the 3rd round, and Hightower just has too much overlap with Spikes and while he might’ve rushed with his hand down in college, (so did Spikes) I don’t see him as an impact pass rusher in the NFL.
- Both Frenz and I had the Pats addressing DL, Guard, WR, CB, OLB and Safety in our respective mocks. If there’s a position I think we’ll miss on it’s running back.
- I’d love to see an impact interior rusher picked somewhere. I went with Jerel Worthy in my mock, but even if they don’t take him I think a quick-off-the-ball defensive lineman could make a huge impact.
- As I mentioned on the podcast if I’m the Jets (or any other AFC East team) I’m targetting Mark Barron and having him prepare to take on Gronk twice a year for his entire first contract. If you want to beat the Patriots you have to have a plan to deal with Gronk.
- I don’t know who the Bills are going to take at 10th overall, but whoever it is they’ll only add to the hype in Buffalo this off-season. If they get another impact defender I’ll be concerned.
- I would not rule out a Mallet/Hoyer trade in the next few days. I’d prefer it’s Hoyer.
- I think the Patriots are more likely to trade out of the first round completely before trading up. But if they did trade up I’d bet it’s to the early 20’s for an impact defensive lineman, maybe Brockers if he’s dropping.
- No Pats fans want an offensive lineman but I bet we’d be glad we took one heading into the 2013 season with Brian Waters almost certainly gone.
- There aren’t many things I’m sure of for this weekend, but one is that we’ll add a wide receiver or cornerback with kick and/or punt return potential.
- One under the radar player type I could regret not looking into more thoroughly is a pass coverage middle linebacker. Someone in the 6-01, 230 range to compete with Dane Fletcher and Tracy White. That could be a break-the-mold pick.
- I think I’m most looking forward to the Pats head-scratcher selection of some guy that wasn’t at the combine, wasn’t on any big boards and doesn’t even have a highlights package for the networks to show after the pick.
2012 Patriots Draft Big Board
Here’s the 2012 Patriots Big Board. These are draft prospects I like and think fit the Patriots style of play, roughly in the order I value them.
All comments, criticism, advice welcome. I make no claims of being a scout. This is simply a fun exercise for myself to find quality applicants for the New England Football Machine. I’ll allow this list to go as high as 50, so I’m still looking, but the goal as it was last year is to nail as many Pats picks as possible. Hence slots won’t be wasted on positions that aren’t glaring needs.
Here is our 2012 Patriots-only mock draft.
- posted 4/2
- updated 4/4
- updated 4/8
- updated 4/11
- updated 4/12
- updated 4/20
- updated 4/23
- Morris Clayborne, CB, LSU: Devin McCwho?
- David Decastro, G, Stanford: I know we already have a mauler, what a dream it would be to have two.
- Fletcher Cox, DE, South Carolina: Versatile defensive lineman prospect who could contribute to the Pats immediately as an interior rusher while developing the strength and technique to play the other line spots. Reminds be somewhat of Cameron Jordan last year and that scares me, but I think Cox is the better prospect.
- Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia: Great size and length, good guard prospect with experience at tackle. Surprising agility for a big man, and would fit in well with the rest of the Monster Squad. A potential long term solution at right guard would be an excellent hole to fill this year.
- Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: Long corner prospect, who could potentially be moved to safety. Would bring some needed talent, size and playmaking ability to the back end of the Pats defense.
- Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: Gilmore intrigues me as a potential safety conversion guy, especially given the safety class this year. He has all kind of Pats potential factors (durable, hard working, soft spoken). If he doesn’t have the corner speed he could go to safety, but overall a solid and popular Pats mock draft pick and rightly so.
- Michael Brockers, DE, LSU: Brockers is still an ascending prospect, but in the exact mold of what the Patriots need most: versatile defensive lineman with the size and strength to do a number of different things. Brockers had a great year in 2011 as a Sophomore, and in the words of one scout “played with great passion”. If he puts that passion into being a professional football player he could be a dominant, versatile force. Plus he is a clean prospect off-field and injury-wise.
- Kendall Reyes, DT, UCONN: A popular Pats mock draft pick who’s a two-time captain who could develop the strength to two gap, but already has the speed for interior rush.
- Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska: Versatile corner described as “feisty”. Physical and tough, he can play inside or outside, and would give the Pats a solid man-coverage corner. The only question is does he have the FBI to play for BB.
- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Not the outside speed demon some might be hoping for, but has size/strength like Vincent Jackson, a known Patriots favorite. The Pats used to look for physical receivers like David Givens and Floyd seems like he could be in that mold, while also giving NE an outside receiving threat.
- Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: On paper Upshaw doesn’t have the ideal size for a Patriots OLB nor does he have the measurables that will wow anyone, but when I watch him play he looks like a Patriot. He’s assignment sound, strong at the point of attack and can get after the passer enough to be a threat. I was consistently impressed by his discipline and instincts. He plays the way the Patriots want their defense to play, regardless of his measurables.
- Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State: Ideal Patriots-type when you look at intangibles, hard worker who’s versatile. 20.5 career sacks. Like Upshaw, he’s a slightly undersized tweener. Upshaw might be a little tougher than him, but McLellin is very athletic in a way that none of our current outside linebackers are. Let’s remember Ninkopoop isn’t exactly ideal size either, and he’s definitely not the kind of athlete McClellin is.
- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: Scrappy, intelligent and a hard worker. There are some injury concerns but Konz strikes me as a guy who could be tempting to the Pats if he falls to the late-20s. His value could be affected by how secure the Pats feel about Dan Connolly and his future at center. Reinforcing the interior offensive line has to be a priority this year.
- Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin: Tough, gritty interior lineman who will need some time to develop. Dependable and “no-nonsense”. I am always intrigued by these Badger offensive linemen. I wonder if this is the year BB grabs one of them.
- Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia: Playmaker in the slot. Plays bigger than frame. Hobbs/Arrington mold. Won Hornung Award for most versatile player in college football. Kickoff returner.
- Mark Barron, S, Alabama: It’s a thin safety class this year, and while Barron isn’t an ideal free safety-type fit that could balance out Chung, he’s big and tough in the box, and fairly instinctive on the back end. Yes, we have Chung, but Barron could allow him to play back a little more, and we all know how many games Chung has missed over the last two years. My gut feel is that a team looking for an answer to Gronkandez will snap him up a little higher than they should.
- Dontari Poe, DL, Memphis: Big, raw mass of a man that is willing to work. Never rule out the Pats on athletic freaks (see Solder/Cannon). Having a big inside presence like Poe would really make life difficult for opponents and force them to deal with two athletic forces inside. His production doesn’t overwhelm from a numbers standpoint, and I get a boom or bust feeling with him, but his ceiling under Wilfork’s wing would be amazingly high.
- Reuben Randle, WR, LSU: There’s a theme of big receivers in this year’s class and Randle is one of them. Another popular Pats mock draft pick Randle is described as a hard worker and savvy route runner. Could be a prime pick at the bottom of the first round.
- Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Wright is a tough, fast wide out who lacks size but has everything else you want. A four year starter, described as “top competitor who gives full effort on every snap”. I don’t know what it takes to mesh with TFB but this guy would give it everything he had, and he’s dripping with explosive talent. Yes please.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers: Sanu’s savvy, and from a building a team perspective he’s the kind of pick you know exactly what you’re getting with. BB surely knows him well after scouting McCourty and being attached to Greg Schiano’s hip at the league meetings in Florida. He can be a threat in a number of different ways (in the backfield, in the slot, outside) and he’s 6-2, 215. Even with the Pats recent additions at WR they still lack size and Sanu is another big, athletic receiver that is prevalent in this year’s draft class.
- Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame: I’m torn on Smith. He looked good at the combine and has impressive size and better than average speed at a position of Pats need. I just am not sold that he’s an instinctive difference-maker and might be limited in his effectiveness in the New England system. But there’s a lot to like. Again, a potential anti-Gronkandez for someone willing to reach.
- Jerel Worthy, DL, Michigan State: Worthy isn’t a class Pats fit, but he would bring some quickness and versatility to the interior line, both areas of need.
- Billy Winn, DL, Boise State: Winn interests me because he can play a number of spots on the line and has some interior power like Mike Wright had. May not be ideal at any position, but has the demeanor to fit in and do a number of things. Violent in the trenches, also a former wrestler/power lifter.
- DeQuan Menzie, CB, Alabama: Started 20 games for Alabama, but doesn’t have the measurables the NFL likes. Sound familiar? He’s physical and aggressive and could be a mid-to-late rounder with potential to play special teams and slot.
- Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall: Great measurables and his leadership qualities. Not completely sold he’s a fit at OLB, but he has the make up of a Patriot and his pass rush skills can’t be ignored. Might be a better 4-3 upfield DE, that drops his value for NE.
- Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia: An intriguing prospect with many connections to Belichick. Good tackler, and has a diverse football background in a lot of positions, including kick return ability. Has good length, somewhat reminds me of McCourty.
- Chandler Jones, DL/OLB, Syracuse: I like Jones’ length, and while I’m not convinced he has the athleticism to play OLB for the Pats, he’s an interesting prospect. Physically he has the tools, but could he put it all together to play the Elephant role? Maybe. Todd McShay really likes his upside.
- Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia: Irvin has some off-the-field questions, but he seems like he has the personality to really flourish in New England. He’s undersized but the ferocity of his play makes up for it. A true athlete who could potentially make an immediate difference on passing downs.
- Jayron Hosely, CB, VT: Smart, feisty and aggressive with kick return/punt return potential. Came out early so under the radar early in the process. But a good overall Pats-type DB. Potential to contribute immediately as a slot corner.
- Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State: Seasoned, athletic and tenacious center. I really like his size given the Patriots struggles keeping the middle of the pocket intact for TFB to step up.
- Ben Jones, C, Georgia: Solid center prospect who played over 40 career starts in the SEC. Leader. Not flashy but a solid pick who would compete for time right away.
- Markelle Martin, Safety, Oklahoma State: I really like his physicality and closing ability on the back end. Could be a prime mid-round safety target in a weak safety class. In theory he has everything the Pats like and need if he could live up to his scouting reports.
- Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati: Relentless worker and “the spark plug of the defense”, position in NFL tough to project, but could be a 5-technique if he improves his anchor. Still, a tough, highly competitive DL with a good first step.
- Brandon Taylor, S, LSU: Team captain and three-year SEC starter. More of a strong safety type, but great leadership qualities and tough player.
- Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas: Adams would bring some real explosiveness to the Pats return games, something they badly needed in 2011. If he could develop with Brady as a WR while earning a roster spot via special teams he could add a dynamic versatile presence on offense in coming years.
- Christian Thompson, FS, SC State: A favorite of Wes Bunting, Thompson has good speed and the athleticism to develop on the back end. NFP has him as their 2nd ranked free safety.
- Josh Chapman, NT, Alabama: Similar to the mold of Wilfork, Chapman can hold his ground against the best of them. Question is how versatile he is, can he be more than just a NT?
- Kheeston Randall, DT, Texas: Solid character prospect who’s “immoveable” by a single blocker. Projects to a 5-technique in the Patriots defense.
- Malik Jackson, DE, Tennesee: Developmental 5-tech, with some scheme versatility. Will need time to develop, but has the physical tools. Saw time all over the defensive line on passing downs. Has work to do, but has the frame to grow into a beast.
- Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State: Physical, aggressive and diverse. Definitely reminiscent of the Law Firm in both his dreads and running style.
- Tramain Thomas, S, Arkansas: A 3-year SEC starter who wasn’t invited to the combine? Pats alert! Undersized, and often over aggressive, but a smart back end player who has range and can make plays on the ball.
- Asa Jackson, CB, Cal Poly: Jackson fits the mold of Pats corners from yesteryear, with also some return ability.
- Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana: Good size, long arms, ability to play press. Will need time coming from a small school, but looks like he would add a missing element to the Pats secondary.
- Cam Johnson, DL, Virgina: Relentless worker who plays with violence, he plays the way the Pats like, but it’s a struggle to project exactly where he would fit. Scouts feel he might be too stiff for OLB, but he can bring it as a pass rusher and could develop as a sub-rusher.
- Lucas Nix, OG, Pittsburgh: Good athlete with a mean streak. Consistent and durable, time at right guard.
- Ryan Miller, OL, Colorado: Miller is 6’7" but projects inside to guard. The Pats surely got a great look at him while scouting Solder. He’s played inside and outside at Colorado. Great size, athleticism.
- Kelcie McCray, S, Arkansas St.: Former high school QB with good size and range. Some questions about how physical he is, but a possible back end/special teams guy available in the mid rounds.
- Greg Childs, WR, Arkansas: Before tearing his patellar tendon Childs looked like a prime WR prospect. If he can get back to full health he could be an excellent value pick on Day 3. Tall and physical, but also understands his role in an offense that is similar to the Patriots. Doesn’t hurt that he had great chemistry with Ryan Mallett either.
- Buddy Jackson, CB, Pitt: Jackson never started at Pitt, but was an explosive kickoff returner who played some sub package defensive back.
- Desmond Wynn, G, Rutgers: Started 24 straight games at LG, also has experience at RG.
PatsPropaganda & Frenz Podcast live at 11am EST!
Today Frenz and I welcome Wes Bunting of National Football Post to discuss some draft prospects with Patriots potential. Tune in live or catch it on Itunes immediately afterwards.
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