PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

dvoa

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Some historical perspective on the 2013 Patriots and their DVOA ratings, Sub/Base mix and 3rd down percentages.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/some-historical-perspective-on-the-2013-patriots/

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 8 DVOA Ratings

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Lots of Pats stuff in here, we’ll get into the ratings in another post. Interesting breakdown of Tom Brady’s down season as well.

The idea of the Patriots as the most consistent team in the league seems ridiculous, because they seem so inconsistent from drive to drive. Nonetheless, the Patriots may not be the enigma that everyone thinks they are. The Patriots are not suddenly a bad team. They seem to be a slightly above-average team that plays most games slightly above-average. Maybe the reason the Patriots are so hard for people to judge is that their performance this year is so different from what we’ve come to expect from the Patriots in recent years. Their defense ranks sixth in DVOA and has been the most consistent in the league (variance of only 2.0%) despite all the injuries in recent weeks. The offense, on the other hand is just 20th in offensive DVOA (12th in variance). Even stranger, the offense is being carried in part by the running game. The Patriots rank 12th in rushing DVOA but 24th in passing DVOA.

Notes on Football Outsiders Patriots DVOA Rankings: Week 7

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I always enjoy Football Outsider’s efficiency-based DVOA rankings and think they paint a far more telling story about how teams have performed thus far. Here are my Patriots-related notes.

Patriots Rankings:

Overall: 5th

Total Offense: 1st (Pass 2nd, Run 3rd)

Total Defense: 20th (Pass 29th, Run 4th)

Let’s just take a moment to ponder the fact that they Patriots are top five in three of the four categories, and just fourth from the bottom on pass defense.

Pass Defense Rankings (vs. specific targets):

  • vs. #1 WR = 7th
  • vs. #2 WR = 8th
  • vs. other WR = 32nd
  • vs. TE = 27th
  • vs. RB = 28th

Last year, when Devin McCourty was awful, the Pats were the worst in the NFL against #1 WRs. Now? It’s 3rd and 4th receivers that are killing them. Who does this point to? Well in sub-packages it would have to be Kyle Arrington. The coverage on TEs and RBs isn’t much better and I’d say that’s a function of not having any good coverage linebackers, though the safeties have to take some heat for that too.

This also points to the Pats getting eaten alive in the middle of the field. Is this ironic to anyone else? The Pats offense lives off of passes to the short middle and the defense has the most trouble there? Maybe even more interesting is that the Pats have very little deep ball threats on offense, and on defense they can’t stop the deep ball.

Based on the current rankings the Patriots will face every top ten defense in DVOA except #1 (Bears), #8 (Eagles), and #10 (Packers). That’s a tough slate, though the offenses “Schedule” ranking is just 15th.

Pats D is ranked 27th in “Schedule”, meaning the DVOA of the offenses they’ve faced is near the bottom of the league. Not encouraging.

Footbal Outsiders: Patriots fall to 5th in overall DVOA

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Footbal Outsiders: Patriots fall to 5th in overall DVOA

The breakdown:

  • Offense: 2nd overall
  • Defense: 30th overall
  • Special Teams: 10th overall

Another interesting thing to note on this Football Outsiders is their chart on the biggest halftime collapses for teams during weeks 1-3. The 2010 Patriots had the 8th all time biggest differential between first and second half. Of course they did turn it around, but it shows the kind of inconsistency you can expect out of a young defense especially early in the season.