FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Free-Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis
You’ll never guess who’s gotten the best value out of free agency so far this offseason.
An Independent Patriots Blog
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Free-Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis
You’ll never guess who’s gotten the best value out of free agency so far this offseason.
New England Patriots Sticking to Proven Philosophy in Free Agency | AthlonSports.com
New one up on Athlon, Pats doing what they do.
Okay, there will still be plenty of 2014 posts coming (Butler INT will be reblogged at least another 1000x), but today we start looking forward at 2015.
While everyone can’t wait for all those mock drafts to start pouring in, we’ll begin mostly with free agency here, since the Patriots will likely fill just about every major hole long before the draft gets here.
As for the draft, I pay zero attention to college football until now. So I’ll start looking into guys and putting together my big board for the fifth year in a row.
Let’s start with the depth chart. I’ve left holes where starters are hitting free agency, or are under option like Revis, and I’ve bolded players that I generally think are locks to remain, i.e. probably won’t be cut or restructured. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen of course.
Based off the depth chart, and the weaknesses of the 2014 Patriots, here are some general priorities as a starting point. This list is highly fluid, but given the Pats current roster and strengths/weaknesses of the past couple years, this is where I’d start.
1. Darrelle Revis/LCB – There’s no question the first priority is to try to get Revis an extension before they have to pick up his huge option or he hits free agency. There’s no corner I’d rather have. It’s a no-brainer to keep him while he’s still in his prime.
2. Devin McCourty – McCourty seems a good candidate to be franchise tagged, but if there’s a way to give both him and Revis long-term extensions, things will be looking good on the back end, especially with so much depth. Honestly, I love McCourty, but if I had to choose only one, I’d pick Revis.
3. Dan Connolly/LG – Connolly seemed to settle the line once he moved to left guard. Is he an elite guard? Nope. But he’ll give you a solid presence and he should be cheaper than his last deal. I’m sure there will be plenty of people who want to go after another guard in free agency (I like Clint Boling from Cinci), but I think the best play is sign Connolly and another low priced FA, then draft at least two.
4. Stephen Gostkowski – This is where things start to get interesting with the Pats and kickers. Let’s not forget they tagged Vinatieri twice (one time he was later extended, the second he played it out). Gostkowski has shown no sign of slowing down. It would be hard to let him walk, but he won’t come cheap.
5. Shane Vereen/3rd Down RB – The Pats do have James White waiting in the wings, but it will be hard to forget Vereen’s clutch performance in the Super Bowl. Still, there have to be priorities and I don’t think it’s a lock that Vereen returns. I don’t think he’s irreplaceable.
6. Right Guard – We didn’t even know Ryan Wendell could play guard until last season. He proved he can do it pretty well, but I still think we can upgrade him. While I don’t expect the Pats to spend big money on external free agents, they need to add at least a couple legitimate guards to the competition, assuming one of them is Connolly. Using a high-round pick on a guard seems like a good idea. The found Stork last year, he needs a mauler next to him with good size.
7. Big Defensive Lineman – Wilfork’s future seems to once again be up in the air. Maybe he retires? Or maybe the Pats try to re-work his deal again. Either way, we know New England will end things a year early rather than a year late. Wilfork had an amazing year coming off an Achilles tear, but with Siliga waiting in the wings, how much more can they squeeze out of Big Vince? A defensive tackle with size could be an excellent draft target. Bringing back Alan Branch is a possibility but I thought he was just okay. Ideally I’d like to upgrade with a big ugly who can play multiple spots. Easley/Chris Jones have the penetrator-type covered.
8. Defensive End – Chandler Jones hits free agency next year while Rob Ninkovich just turned 31. A third developmental defensive end could be a good ideal, depending on how they feel about the futures of Zach Moore, Michael Buchanan and Jake Bequette. Re-signing Akeem Ayers would be a good step as well. We saw what happened last year when Chandler went down and they had to trade for Ayers. They can’t keep running Ninkovich and Chandler into the ground, it will come back to haunt them eventually.
9. Early Down RB – The Pats do have some depth already in this spot, including Blount, Jonas Gray and Tyler Gaffney, who was a rookie this year who spent the season on IR after being snapped up from Carolina. Maybe re-signing Stevan Ridley to a prove-it deal makes sense. Or they could just wait until the draft which I think would be fine as well.
10. Box Safety – Patrick Chung had his best season as a pro and earned an extension, but the search should never end for a strong safety with size who can cover tight ends. That was a big weakness for the Pats this year and one they should continue to try to address.
The wheels of free agency are spinning, with conflicting reports and airport stakeouts already flying. I try to sit back and enjoy the madness and not put too much weight into any report until it’s a finalized done deal and reported by real NFL media, not some random person you’ve never heard from before suddenly breaking news about the Pats.
So here’s a collection of rumors and speculation as we wind down the final few hours until the frenzy begins…
Two teams to watch on CB Darrelle Revis once Tampa releases him: Philadelphia and New England (Jets fans shudder).
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 11, 2014
Ah, the juiciest rumor of all. How realistic? I’m not holding my breath.
Things are even crazier with Talib…
Source: Aqib Talib is very close to a deal with Patriots. #NFLFreeagency
— Dianna Marie Russini (@NBCdianna) March 11, 2014
Okay, that was last night, and now…? Mike Giardi of CSNNE.com reports Talib has no standing offers. That’s free agency Tuesday for you.
As for Julian Edelman, the Pats were supposedly making a push on him last night and now have a standing three year offer that they want an answer on by 4pm EST. Jules must be weighing that pretty heavily, because if he rejects the Pats will likely be on to plan B just like they were with Revis last year.
#Patriots offered WR Julian Edelman a three-year deal, per source. Would like an answer by the start of free agency. They want to keep him
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 11, 2014
Finally we get the first report of a potential external free agent visit, Wesley Woodyard of the Broncos. He’s a coverage linebacker, smaller than the Pats traditionally have gone with, but they definitely need depth at the position and he’d bring a different element to the squad.
Despite interest from DAL, source close to Wesley Woodyard told me his 1st trip is to NE, with another team visit planned after
— Brandon Krisztal (@BKDenverSports) March 11, 2014
Stay tuned, plenty more to come, obviously…
Somewhere along the line, the theory that the Patriots aren’t going for it, and are content to do just enough to be a playoff contender, has picked up momentum. The chatter particularly seems to intensify at this time of year when NFL teams are handing out big-money contracts with free agency set to begin. There are two main issues with this line of thinking – the independent financial data doesn’t support it, and it overlooks the more pressing issue: It’s not that the Patriots aren’t spending money, it’s how they’re spending it.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/somewhere-along-the-line-the-theory-that-the/
NEPatriots Draft: Rookie Free Agent Signings Link
The rookie free agent signings have already started pouring in fast and furious. NEPatriotsDraft.com has us covered like no one else!
CB Kyle Arrington — Extended exclusive rights tender, could still negotiate long-term deal
S Josh Barrett — Reached a two-year extension
RB Kevin Faulk — Rehabbing his knee, then will decide on his future
K Shayne Graham — Will be on the open market with starter Stephen Gostkowski returning
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis — Received a second-round restricted free agent tender
OL Matt Light — Waiting out new CBA before striking a deal, likely with Patriots
S Bret Lockett — Received an exclusive rights tender and one-year contract
OL Logan Mankins — Named the franchise player with a one-year, $10+ million deal
S Brandon McGowan — On the free agent market, may not return
RB Sammy Morris — On the free agent market, could return for another year
OL Quinn Ojinnaka — On the free agent market, wasn’t given RFA tender
S Jarrad Page — Given RFA tender worth second-round compensation and one-year deal
DL Darryl Richard — Exclusive rights free agent reached one-year deal
RB Fred Taylor — Leaning toward retirement, but has not yet made a decision
DL Gerard Warren — On the free agent market, may be replaced by DT Marcus Stroud
OL Ryan Wendell — Earned a one-year deal as key reserve on the line
LB Tracy White — On the free agent market, unclear if he’ll return
https://www.patspropaganda.com/cb-kyle-arrington-extended-exclusive-rights/
A final tribute to Gronk’s epic off-season. Let’s hope he’s able to match what he did last year. smileyhorts: Gronkowski Brothers on ESPN playing “Sibling sez”