It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.
Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:
Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.
Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.
Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.
Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.
Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.
Patriots In Control
The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.
With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.
There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.
I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.
But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.
For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.
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