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Tuesday Patriots Catch-Up

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It’s that time again for a random bunch of Pats notes that I’ve been kicking around or getting into arguments about. With so much in motion at this point in the preseason, it’s impossible to cover everything in every article we put up, so here’s some catch up thoughts as we are just 19 days away from the opener.

— Few people pointed out that I was crazy for leaving Vincent Valentine off my 53-man roster so let’s talk about that a bit. First, I have to disclose that I didn’t get the pick then and I don’t get it now. Not that I don’t understand picking a guy because of the Planet Theory, but when you have two pretty well-paid veterans that are roughly the same amount of huge, not to mention a first-round pick from last season who will rarely leave the field and Valentine was already looking uphill at any kind of significant role this season. Then add in that my untrained scouting eye just wasn’t all that impressed with him from the crappy YouTube highlights, nor has he done much of anything to stand out in two preseason games, nor can I recall a single mention from any training camp practices. So yeah, I see a big body that’s hard to find but that’s about all I’ve seen so far. No, he probably won’t get cut, but does anyone want to bet he gets an “injury” sometime in the next two weeks. A red shirt year this season, then see what happens with Branch/Knighton next year and then the time might be right for Valentine.

— DJ Foster and Keshawn Martin were back in full pads on Monday and they’re two guys we should keep a close eye on over the next two weeks. I have Martin as pretty much a roster lock (Yes, I caught some flack for this too on my 53-man). Why? Because he’s a serviceable backup to Edelman and Amendola, can return kicks/punts, and did show some progress in his first year in New England. Martin’s just a classic BB player — no one’s that impressed with him but he sticks around because he can do a lot of things pretty good. The Pats also gave him a two-year, $3 million contract last year. They wouldn’t throw that money around to a JAG.

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Hello Injuries: Patriots Wounded in the Trenches

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Bright Spots

The first day of camp was extra special for Patriots left tackle Nate Solder. It was the first time he was able to share a football field with his son Hudson. Both father and son have battled extensive health issues in the last year. Seeing Dad in uniform and Hudson present certainly made the first day of practice special.

Another long time Patriot reappeared out of retirement in hope of improving the offensive line. Dante Scarnecchia is back and he brings extensive coaching experience in the trenches. There will be some tight position battles and Scar will be in charge of improving the unit that protects Brady.

Rookie offensive guard Joe Thuney has come into camp and captured attention immediately.  Jeff Howe and other members of the media cited his strength engaged with defensive opponents and his finish on every play. Since Thuney is a strong fundamental offensive lineman he can potentially work on playing tackle in addition to guard. Many suspect that is already the plan.

First Impressions

The first offensive line group consisted of Solder-Thuney-Stork-Cooper-Cannon. During camp these starting groups are subject to change every day. There will be injuries and various reasons that cause the first group to fluctuate.

Joe Thuney and Jonathan Cooper are favorites to win the starting guard job according to some Patriots analysts. Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder as expected to return to their starting roles at tackle. The center position is up for grabs between David Andrews and Bryan Stork.

 

Tackle Health

The main positional weakness of the offensive line in 2015 still remains; it’s not injury. It’s the tackles that protect the edge of Brady’s pocket.

Nate Solder has returned to practice. Sebastian Vollmer has not. Solder tore his biceps in week five of this past year and was placed on the season ending IR. It appears that the big money tackle has recovered from his injury. Solder’s cap hit in 2016 is $10,322,666.

Sebastian Vollmer’s situation is concerning. At age 32, Vollmer has opened camp on the PUP list. If he is not activated by the end of camp, Vollmer misses the first six weeks of the season. The right tackle enters 2016 on the last year of his contract with a cap hit totaling $5,208,334. There is no heir apparent at right tackle. It is unlikely Vollmer is resigned in New England at his age.

Marcus Cannon returns after a highly criticized campaign in 2015. He was simply ineffective throughout his season. If Thuney cannot capture a starting guard role, it’s very possible that he beats out Cannon as the swing tackle.

Cameron Fleming, LaAdrian Waddle, Keavon Milton, and Kerbyson Kyler are also listed as tackles for the start of camp. Fleming and Waddle will battle on the bubble with Cannon. Fleming offers more cap flexibility than Cannon ($4,100,000 lower) and has played both sides of the line.

The Patriots will likely only keep a total of three tackles on their active roster. Solder and Vollmer are locks if healthy. The battle for third will likely feature Cannon, Waddle, and Fleming. Milton and Kyler appear to be long shots.

Strength at Center

One of the most interesting position battles of the offensive line is likely at center. Bryan Stork and David Andrews have both been outstanding in the majority of their starts. There has been mixed signals so far as to who would take over reigns when both players were healthy.

Stork’s health appears to be hindering his ability to battle for the position. Andrews returned to Patriots camp and captured the off-season conditioning award from the coaching staff. His play has also been strong since Stork dropped due to an unspecified issue or injury in an early practice.

At some point the Patriots will have to make a decision at this position. Right now it appears the goalposts are narrowing with Stork’s absence. Andrews is taking all of the work with the ones, putting in the dirty work as Stork continues to miss time.

Crowded, Injury Riddled Group of Guards

As mentioned before, Thuney and Cooper were mentioned as favorites to win a starting guard role. There are several other guards battling for the position including Shaq Mason, Tre’ Jackson, Josh Kline, Ted Karras, Chris Barker, and Jon Halapio.

Usually a team only keeps nine offensive linemen on a game day roster; right now the Patriots have nine offensive guards in camp. Thuney, Cooper, Kline, Jackson, Mason are the linemen with the highest probabilities of landing on the roster.

The hype for Jonathan Cooper would not last long. He would be carted off with a right foot injury in one of the first practices. Cooper is apparently battling plantar fasciitis. This situation may be related to his condition according to Ian Rapoport. Cooper was a high draft pick and has experienced an injury riddled and disappointing career. He was acquired in the deal that sent Chandler Jones to the Cardinals. If he cannot get back to health his career may come to a premature end.

When Cooper dropped out due to injury rookie Ted Karras was promoted to the first offensive line group. In my draft analysis Karras appeared to be a lineman who needed a season of practice squad work. He is a tough player but not yet fundamentally sound. Much like any other NFL rookie at this point.

Shaq Mason and Josh Kline have not been cleared to participate in team drills. Both are recovering from injuries from this past year. Mason battled through a knee injury in October 2015.  Kline had shoulder surgery during the off-season and Jeff Howe reported it was, “unclear when he’ll be ready to practice”. Tre’ Jackson is also still on the PUP due to injuries from last season. This leaves a total of four guards unavailable to Scarnecchia.

The Walking Wounded

When a rookie guard is your standout offensive lineman in the early days of camp it’s a testament to where the position group is as a whole. With or without Dante Scarnecchia, this group still has work to do. Kline, Mason, Jackson, Stork, Vollmer, and Cooper are not cleared as full participants for practice. This leaves two rookie guards (Thuney, Karras) playing on the first offensive line group.

Pretty much an offensive line coaches’ worst nightmare early in camp. When the group is low on bodies, more stress weighs down on the healthy players. They battle more and more in camp, and are susceptible to wear and tear.

Right now Scarnecchia is at least getting the chance to evaluate his young players. With a mass of linemen out due to injury it forces the young guys into the spotlight early in their careers. It appears Joe Thuney gets the picture. He’s played hard right through the whistle in every practice.

The Bottom Line

It’s simply too early to judge much of the play through this point in camp. Some Patriots lineman still haven’t returned from last season’s injuries.

Nate Solder appears to be the only definite starter on the offensive line. It’d be a shock if Vollmer isn’t the bookend on the right side of Brady’s pocket. Cam Fleming, Marcus Cannon, and LaAdrian Waddle battle for a third roster spot.

Guard is a mess but returning Patriots veterans should have the upper hand over Jonathan Cooper. He is already out due to injury and Josh Kline and Shaq Mason are close to returning. Rookie Ted Karras should be bumped back down in the rotation immediately. Joe Thuney has likely given himself a shot to remain with the ones due to his strong, passionate play on the line. Tre’ Jackson will also return at some point and provide further depth at the position.

It might be better for the Patriots long term if Thuney doesn’t win a starting job at guard. It would give him the opportunity to work at Tackle and potentially allow the Patriots to release Marcus Cannon. Thuney’s strong play could provide roster flexibility further down the line.

The job at center is highly contested. Right now it’s a one man job due to unspecified reasons. Bryan Stork left practice in an earlier season and hasn’t appeared since. David Andrews has been strong at center and could win the job. Stork’s injuries have begun to add up.

My early guess for the first group is Solder-Mason-Andrews-Jackson-Vollmer.

Patriots Free Agency Analysis: Value Strikes Again

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No one values value more than Bill Belichick and that’s just what has been on display once again in Patriots free agency this year. In years past, I took a look at just how Belichick maximizes value, turning single draft picks into multiple players and future draft picks.

The 28th overall pick in the 2007 draft was turned into Randy Moss, Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable, Ryan Mallet and then this year’s 7th rounder from Houston that they got for Mallet. That’s right, nine years later the value of that one pick is still paying dividends.

The 23rd overall pick in 2009 was turned into Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Darius Butler and Brandon Tate. Gronk and Edelman are the core of the Patriots offensive weaponry, while Butler and Tate have gone on to have solid pro careers even though not in New England.

This is what Belichick understands, that the draft is a crapshoot and even when you get good players they often get injured. The only way to consistently build a good football team that can overcome the under-performance and injuries that plague all professional football teams is to have quality depth and always work to strengthen that depth.

This philosophy was on display once again yesterday when the Patriots effectively flipped Chandler Jones for a 2nd round pick, and a once-promising guard in Jonathan Cooper, while also adding defensive end Chris Long at less than half what Jones was scheduled to make. Jones was a talented player who would’ve made an impact for the Patriots in 2016, but the long-term health and overall depth of the franchise is once again what the Patriots gained by making these kind of trades and acquisitions.

Long has had two years of injuries, but had never missed a game prior to 2014. It’s very possible that Long will rejuvenate his career if he can stay healthy in New England, and could easily be a more impactful pass rusher than Jones would’ve been. At the very least, Long will likely get his first taste of the playoffs and by that time he should be playing with his hair on fire. That’s the kind of play that helps you win championships.

As for Cooper, the Patriots loved him coming out of college but never had a shot at him as he went 7th overall in 2013. This is what makes the Patriots even more impressive, they rarely get a chance at the best talent in the draft. Instead they have to wait until they either fall out of favor or have their careers derailed by injuries. That’s when they pounce. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

Screen Shot 2016-03-15 at 12.50.50 PMThere’s no denying Cooper has talent and if he can find a way to rekindle that, the Patriots will have improved a vital part of their offensive line. If anyone can get to Cooper, it’s Dante Scarnecchia.

But perhaps most important is the second round pick. The Patriots now have both the 60th and 61st picks in the draft, and by the draft value chart that’s enough to package and get them all the way into the top of the second round, if not the late first round. That kind of flexibility is invaluable and opens up a number of doors that were closed to them without it.

Once again, it’s all about value, and with 11 draft picks the Patriots have the ammo to do as they please during draft day, maximizing each and every pick not only for this year but for the years to come.

 

 

Patriots Trade Chandler Jones to Cardinals

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That didn’t take long. Shortly after I was laying out why Pats could trade Chandler Jones, the Patriots trade Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for guard Jonathan Cooper and a 2nd round pick. Cooper was the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 draft but had fallen out of favor in Arizona after getting sidelined with an injury.

The second round pick is a major addition to the Pats draft ammo, and gives them even more ability to climb up the draft board since they don’t have a first round pick. This also clears another $7 million from the Pats salary cap, taking them to the neighborhood of $17.6 million in space.

As for Jones, the writing was on the wall and it seems like one of the few times many could see a Patriots blockbuster move coming. Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich are the top two starters at defensive end, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom in the mix to take the third rotational spot.

We also can’t rule out Chris Long, who makes a lot more sense now, or a significant draft pick from a deep defensive end class coming out of college.

Cooper + Scarnecchia = Exciting

Though Cooper fell down the depth chart in Arizona, he seems like the perfect kind of guard for the Patriots system. Here’s his bottom line scouting report from NFL.com:

Cooper, an extremely athletic left guard, racked up a number of all-conference awards during his four years starting, capping it off with a first-team All-American selection as a senior. He has the athleticism to play in a number of different schemes. Due to his ability to lead the way on runs and outstanding pass protection skills, he figured to be the first guard selected in the draft.

Now Cooper enters the Danta Scarnecchia school of offensive lineman-ing, an education that has transformed far less talented players into impact contributors. He’ll compete with second-year players Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason, and veteran Josh Klein for a starting spot.

It’s not hard to see why this move made sense on multiple levels. The Pats get a young and talented player at a spot of relative need, but also get a vital draft pick to help them this year. The extra cap space can be applied to players who are certainly needed long-term like Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard and Malcolm Butler.