PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

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Week 5 NFL Preview: Patriots at Cowboys – YouTube

The bye week is over and we’re turning the page to the Cowboys. How different this game looks that we thought it might look. At one point it was looking like Garoppolo vs. Romo, now it’s Brady vs. Cassel? Still should be a good test on the road despite the Cowboys injuries.

(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/week-5-nfl-preview-patriots-at-cowboys-youtube/

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Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” Defense in One Simple Chart (2001-2015)

Much has been made over the years of Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy on defense. Now it is an easy excuse when the defense gives up a ton of yards but still win the game because Tom Brady scored more points. 

But as we can see this has always been Belichick’s philosophy, even going back to 2003 and 2004, years everyone remembers as the prime of defense in New England. 

The chart above breaks down the Bend side, including yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive, and the Break side, including points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive.

As you can see the Patriots are rarely in the top-10 for the yards (twice) and plays (three times) they give up every drive. But when it comes to the points and turnovers, they’re almost always in the top half of the league, and usually top five or ten.

Even last year’s over-romanticized defense gave up sustained drives but when it came to the red zone they closed the door.

This speaks to Belichick’s philosophy of playing disciplined but not over-aggressive defense. They might not get off the field as quickly as we all might like, but by forcing the offense to earn every yard, more often than not they get a stop or a turnover.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/bill-belichicks-bend-dont-break-defense-in-one/

Coin Flip-gate: Are the Patriots cheating the coin toss too?

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The coin toss to determine first possession in football dates all the way back to 1892, at the very start of the game itself. While the procedure has evolved in the last 123 years, it remains one of original tenets of the game of football.

But in the last year a trend has emerged that calls into question the integrity of this invaluable opening moment of a football game. The coin toss was expected to be a fair chance for each team to get their choice at the start of the game – whether to receive the ball, choose a side of the field to defend or to defer possession until the second half.

Each team should have a 50/50 chance at winning, but that’s not the case for teams playing the New England Patriots. Since the start of the 2014 regular season the Patriots have won and deferred on 17 of 22 coin flips. In those 17 games the Patriots are 15-2! 

While the odds of winning a coin flip should be 50 percent, the Patriots are somehow winning at a rate of 77.3%. Inconceivable!

The coins are supplied by the referees and that points a direct line toward the NFL if the refs are using weighted coins to help the Patriots win the tosses. However the number of “deferrals” is closely split between home (ten games) and away (seven games), and since the away team calls heads or tails one might wonder if even the opponents themselves are in on giving the Patriots an unfair advantage over… themselves.

Or perhaps the simplest answer is strategic magnets placed in the Patriots’ captain’s equipment by Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams, specifically calibrated to make the coins do what the Patriots want them to. No one is better at post-snap adjustments than New England, why should we think any different about their post-toss adjustments?

According to some random coin toss probability finder I found on google the chances of the Patriots correctly hitting 17 of 22 flips is 1 in 159! So are we to assume that the Patriots not only dominate the NFL but probability science as well!?

As we know from all the numerous anonymous unsubstantiated claims against the Patriots, there’s a chance that they might cheat in a way that all other teams try but only the Patriots get blamed for. This is just the latest example of someone who is outraged (me) applying causation to correlation because I want the national media to pay attention to me and I hate the Patriots because they beat my team a bunch of times. And Tom Brady is smug. And Bill Belichick is mean.

This issue should be investigated by Don Van Natta Jr., Ted Wells, The Warren Commission, Magnum PI, Inspector Gadget and anyone else who has flawless integrity and is willing to publish unprovable dirty laundry at the behest of ESPN and their stable of former players who had their seasons ended at various points by Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

The coin toss is sacred and the Patriots can’t be allowed to get away with this any longer!!!!!!

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Patriots Football Outsiders DVOA Update (going back to 2001)

Usually I wait until the fourth game of the season to post any long-term stat perspective but since the bye week comes early this year I’m putting this up now. Remember these numbers are reflective of how three games unfolded and each’s specific gameplan. So the ugly run defense numbers aren’t really quite as horrible as they look. 

But clearly the offense picked up almost exactly where they left off last year and gasp, the pass defense has been top-10 so far. Yes against Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles but there was a time not so long ago when EVERYONE threw for 300 yards on the Pats.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-football-outsiders-dvoa-update-going/

Hump Day Pats Posits

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Plenty to talk about here on the bye week as we reset a bit. It’s a weird season because there’s not much to complain about yet and that has the Mazz’s and Volin’s of the world floundering. (Seriously Volin didn’t like the defensive gameplan that gave up 10 points that could entirely be connected to one blown play and two third-down stops that were negated by a fumble and a penalty.)

Personally I think you can be a homer and support your team but still be critical of their performances. And there’s more to be a fan/blogger etc. than being critical… there’s understanding the schemes and how the coaches are attacking and defending. So while there hasn’t been a Kansas City game for everyone to freak out about there’s still plenty to analyze.

First, there’s been plenty of can the Pats go 16-0 and as I said earlier this week I really don’t want to. I think it makes it harder to win the Super Bowl and I’d prefer to have a motivating loss that exposes some weaknesses and ignites a fire for the team down the stretch.

Again, the NFL season is as much about attrition as anything else. And unfortunately the chances are slim that the Patriots are still as robust as they are right now. 

And yeah, the schedule looks manageable but think about all the losses or near losses to inferior teams over the years. The 2004 team’s loss to Miami sticks out. Not to mention near losses in 2013 to the Browns and Texans. And the Pats finish at Jets/at Dolphins. Those places are never a slam dunk regardless of what the teams are playing for.

So you won’t hear much 16-0 talk around here. We’ve been there, done that and all it taught us was that it’s only the Super Bowl that matters.

I continue to be impressed by Jordan Richards
 in his limited duty against the Jags.  Yeah, Mazz thinks you can’t learn anything from a game like last weekend’s but I think Richards is a prime example of learning something. He reminds me a lot of Patrick Chung
 with his aggressiveness, but the big question is whether or not he has the speed to play on the back end to bump Harmon. We could be seeing more and more of him.

Speaking of rookies, can you believe we’re still waiting on Trey Flowers
 to make his debut? He was possibly the best rookie in the preseason  but has been under wraps the first three weeks. Defensive end depth is really good right now but sooner or later they have to get his feet wet and I’m excited to see what he can do.

My thoughts keep drifting to Dominique Easley
 and just how much he could elevate this defense. His burst off the snap is back and he’s flashing the kind of disruption I’ve been dreaming of since this blog started in 2010. But what has me wondering is how to truly harness his potential. They had him in his best spot – three technique – vs. the Jags, but his burst seems most effective not when it’s clearly a passing down but when the OL is trying to stunt. That opens the gaps for him and he totally screws their entire operation up. But when he’s asked to go one-on-one and the OL gets set it seems like Easley has trouble getting free and getting to the quarterback. That could change and he’s technically still green, but it’s an area to focus on in the coming weeks.

Malcom Brown has been somewhat underwhelming out of the gate, not that it’s a cause for major concern because he has made a couple plays and looked strong in spurts, but I’d like to see a splash play sooner than later from him.

The scary thing for the rest of the NFL is how well the Pats’ drafts since 2010 have turned out. They’re on a crazy roll and the trio of Andrews-Mason-Jackson is exactly what the Hoodie ordered this year. 

New podcast coming tonight as well as a some All-22 Offensive thoughts from the Jags game. And also Frenz and I will be reuniting for a podcast this weekend. Looking forward to talking to my old podmate!