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Pats Posits: More on the roster, the week ahead and needed number changes

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– The line between linebacker and safety seems to be disappearing. Linebackers used to only need to be slightly more athletic than offensive linemen, but now they must be able to run and cover tight ends, running backs and sometimes wide receivers, all of which run the gamut of size and speed. Belichick has long experimented with big safeties in the dime linebacker role, but that has seeped into many of the subpackages. 

– This speaks overall to the total athleticism of the defense now. There are just four defensive tackles, each a little different than the other, but generally where the only size exists on the defense. The defensive ends, linebackers and strong safeties all have plenty of crossover in coverage and need to be able to play in space at times.

– The Patriots have always been a gameplan defense but it’s going to be extreme this year. You simply can’t pencil in anyone in a particular side or position. The defensive tackles will be mixed however best fits to attack the offensive line whether it’s having two space eaters inside or using Easley to attack gaps.

– Then there’s the cornerbacks who I think will be in more man-to-man than any of us anticipated, but it will be about matching features, not just Butler on the left/ on the best receiver, etc. The safeties will factor into this as well. Put it this way, tracking the snaps and coverage is going to be a headache this year.

– With Stork back at practice I really have no idea what the OL looks like Thursday night. Although Jackson looks a little better than Mason, I wouldn’t rule out Solder-Mason-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer.

– Travaris Cadet is a wild card because there’s no tape on how the Pats plan on using him. He’s receiver-like in his route running and I think the Pats are going to use him to create a lot of favorable matchups.

– Remember September is always about experimentation, even to the point of losing games unfortunately. Guys are going to get chances in the first four weeks that don’t represent how good they actually are. Guys could be seen in September, get their chance, and never be heard from again if they don’t seize it. So don’t read too much into the lineup week one especially.

– Wouldn’t mind some number changes for Tre Flowers (74), Rufus Johnson (70) or Geneo Grissom (48) today. 52, 58, 59, 90, 98 are open.

– Dion Lewis is the RB to watch vs. Pittsburgh I think.

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Patriots (Initial) 53-man Roster Thoughts

This thing is far from set, but there are enough interesting moves and non-moves that it’s time to reset.

Here’s where I was off:

Out – Reggie Wayne, Jonas Grey, Robert McClain, Brandon LaFell (PUP)

In – Chris Harper, Mike Williams, Eric Martin, David Andrews

Jonas Gray is the biggest surprise, most assumed he’d done enough to earn some carries. Strange run for Grey after getting those four TDs vs. Indy.

Wayne’s retirement is a bit of a surprise and now Aaron Dobson has a chance to show what he can do once again.  Especially without LaFell for the first six games.

Martin and Williams are two guys I need to take a little closer look at. Martin shined early in camp but was lost with an injury until the last preseason game. Not really sure how they fit outside special teams just yet.

Harper has a tall task ahead of him but they will very well need him at some point soon. I wouldn’t rule out a veteran addition here, but who knows if anyone could pick the system up quickly. 

Right now it looks like they’ll be small on the outside and tall on the inside, at least to start. Imagine Edelman and Amendola will see a lot action and who knows how easy they’ll have to go on Edelman’s ankle still.

I am a fan of keeping all six safeties, each has their own use and can play multiple roles. They’re thin at linebacker but Chung/Richards/Wilson are essentially dime linebackers so there’s some depth for both positions there.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-initial-53-man-roster-thoughts-this/

Pats Posits: Panthers part deux

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 1. After watching the rest of the defensive snaps I have to say I was impressed with Rufus Johnson. Didn’t put him on the 53-man yesterday, but I think he’s in the conversation for the 53rd man. Tough year to be a breakout DE on this team with two drafts picks, one coveted free agent and two entrenched starters. I’d love to be able to keep him but it might have to (hopefully) be on the practice squad. Johnson is good with his hands as a pass rusher, but he had his struggles against the run.

2. Dax Swanson showed up a couple times, but it’s Bradley Fletcher who I think is sneaking on now. He’s been pretty quiet for most of camp and preseason, but against the Panthers he showed up as a starter. The Pats gave him a pretty big contract, and while Tarrell Brown has outplayed him, there still could be plenty of use for him. 

3. I’d love Logan Ryan to find some consistency this year and hopefully on the “good” side. He swings so hot and cold at times – forcing a fumble or breaking up pass, then immediately whiffing on a jam at the line and getting beat for six. 

4. I mentioned it in the last Posits but hooddamn he’s disruptive. It’s going to be very interesting to watch how he affects this defense on the whole. Let’s remember that even with Revis and Browner last year, the pass defense only went from 14th overall to 12th overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. The minor uptick is because there still hasn’t been a consistent pass rush from the Patriots the last two years while they were running Ninkovich, Chandler and Wilfork into the ground. Now it will be pass rush by committee and it looks very exciting.

5. Jordan Richards really impressed me after a closer look. It’s scary how much he reminds me of Chung. Very physical and fearless taking on a tackle. I think he’s a promising addition and the defensive player who really won me over in this one.

6. I’m all in on Dion Lewis. He’s bounced around the league a bit but he has the savvy of an experienced veteran, making tough yards and something out of nothing a number of times. He was inspiring confidence with his play and with so much uncertainty in the backfield you have to keep a guy who looks that solid.

7. Dobson redeemed himself with a better second half. Still, the negative plays are killers and I feel like the only way we ever see him catching a ball is into his stomach. He certainly doesn’t attack the ball and that’s a problem. 

8. I think Garoppolo would be fine if he has to start the regular season for us. They’d manage what he’s good at and with Gronk and Edelman out there he’ll look pretty good. The question for him will just be avoiding the killer mistakes. If he can do that the Pats would win at least two of the first four, if Brady’s suspension stands. Which it won’t.

9. Scott Chandler is a little quicker than I anticipated and he had a real good first showing. I am curious how they balance him and Gronk, but as everyone is well aware, they’ll make a tough duo to cover.

10. Not much out of Brandon Bolden, but I still think he’s probably the Week 1 starter on early downs, with a combo of Lewis and White on third down. A sprinkling of Jonas Gray to see if he can loosen up the defense at all with his hard-running style.

Pats Posits: 10 things from the Pats-Panthers game

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1. Sucks about Develin. The only thing I truly care about is staying healthy in the preseason and this was the first significant blow. This locks down the Hooman’s roster spot because he can play some fullback as well. Depending on how bad the break is Devlin could be a candidate for the IR with designation to return, though we still have one game to go and they can wait to see if anyone else gets dinged.

2. The Pats offense pretty much always looks flat well into September. Even when it was the trusted Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal core they still had clunkers early in the season. Clearly having an all-rookie interior offensive line in and mostly unfamiliar weapons around Brady did him no favors. 

3. I do have my concerns about the running game, just a tiny bit, but mostly in short yardage situations where they struggled last year. Losing Develin sure doesn’t help that either. But again, we’ll see how it looks with Stork and Wendell back in there.

4. Bit disappointed in Dobson. Good touchdown, but I still think LaFell is such a better fit for the offense they want to run. Not that I thought Dobson was beating out LaFell, but I at least thought he might’ve learned to use his body a little better. I really wanted to see him fight more for the ball. He just doesn’t look to me like he plays the kind of football the Patriots want to play.

5. I think this will be the most mix-and-match defense you’ve seen in Belichick’s history, and it’s definitely his most diverse. There used to be a formula for base defenses – stopping the run, matching nickel or dime when three or four receivers came on – but now athleticism and specificity are the only requirements. Only one or two defenders on the field will technically be defensive linemen. The rest a versatile cast who can beat you with toughness (50/54), speed (51, 99), athleticism (95) or a combination of all three of those (91).

6. This will also be true in the secondary where I’m starting to believe they will play more man than anyone expected this year, when they think they can match up well. I’m not sure about anyone but Butler and Tarrell Brown at this point.

7. Tavon Wilson was reduced to playing dime linebacker on the second team. I think he’s probably done now.

8. Was bummed not to see Cadet last night, but now with Develin out I think it makes it a little easier to keep him. Again, he has more career receptions than any other RB and as much as Lewis and White have flashed, Cadet is unique.

9. Easley is finally starting to look as incredibly explosive as he did in college. I am very, very excited by this and there will be a few GIFs coming of him just blowing plays up in the backfield. It’s impressive to watch and he’s going to be a beast.

10. Once again it “felt” like the Patriots. Bend-don’t-break defense, offense starts slow but comes through at the end. No matter how things shake out over the next week-and-a-half, this will be a good team that contends right down to the end once again.

Re-watched the first half defensive snaps, will take a closer look at the rest of the game over the next day as I missed plenty having to use the NFL Game Pass feed.