new england patriots

We’ve shifted fully into off-season mode here at the Ministry of PatsPropaganda, and we’ve begun with thinking long and hard about the current Patriots personnel and where the biggest areas of need really are.

As evidenced in Michael Holley’s War Room the Patriots evaluate their off-season acquisitions specifically against the current Patriots roster and we try to do the same thing here.

Here are some general thoughts as we get going on our Free Agency and Draft research, specific to the Patriots.

1. In the great debate of 4-3 or 3-4 I expect that the Patriots will try to round out their personnel to fit the 3-4 a little better. That doesn’t mean we’ve necessarily seen the end of the 4-3, but I expect that the Pats will go back to depending on the 3-4 against heavy run teams as they’ve done in the past.
2. Therefore my early feeling is that the defensive line, especially a potential 3-4 defensive end,  should be priority number one. But I think defensive line in general is the area that needs the biggest talent infusion.
3. Moving back to the 3-4 should give Jermaine Cunningham and Ron Brace a chance to contribute more.
4. The status of the Pats best interior line rushers Mike Wright and Myron Pryor will be something to monitor. The Pats have gone two seasons without much interior rush at all.
5. Sadly, I think Mike Wright’s career could be done. Back to back season ending concussions is nothing to mess with.
6. I am not sure I agree with those saying CB is a major need. Say what you will about Ras-I Dowling and his injury bug but he started the first two games of his career with limited training camp. It’s a fact that the Patriots like what they see in him.
7. I see the Pats willing to go into 2012 with a McCourty-Dowling tandem on the outside, with Kyle Arrington at star.
8. I expect McCourty to at least have the chance to bounce back. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. But I think he has a good chance to get back to where he was as a rookie.
9. Sterling Moore should provide good depth giving the Pats a solid tandem of young corners who can develop. Adding another veteran/rookie corner will be necessary, but not as an expensive Free Agent or first rounder. Preferably a physical slot corner.
10. Safety is an area where I think we need a “Throw it all at the wall approach”. Unfortunately there are no primetime free agent or draftable safeties so there needs to be competition to bring out the best in everyone they bring in. 
11. I expect they try to at least replace Sergio Brown with a rookie safety who could project to start long term while playing special teams immediately. Not sure there’s anything long term to be excited about with Sergio.
12. The key to finding a safety to play next to Chung? Someone who excels in coverage and has a nose for the ball. Barrett or Ihedigbo can be the situational box safety, but stabilizing the back end is the biggest issue facing the safety group.
13. Assuming Guyton is gone, I like the Mayo-Spikes-Fletcher core of the inside linebackers. Bring back Tracy White too. Maybe even Niko too.
14. Markell Carter is the real wild card for how big of a need outside linebacker is. Ninkovich has cemented his spot. Mark Anderson should be a priority signing on the other side. They should add another body to the mix, but Carter will affect if it’s a prime free agent/high draft pick, or another developmental guy.
15. Either way I think they won’t hesitate to grab a prime OLB high in the draft if they like him. But they’re very very picky when it comes to those guys so I won’t hold my breath.
16. Will Brian Waters retire and can Marcus Cannon play guard are two of my biggest questions when it comes to the offensive line.
17. I expect both Koppen and Connolly to be back.
18. I also expect an interior lineman to be drafted higher than anyone expects. The middle of the pocket needs long term reinforcements.
19. Rich Orhnberger is the most hilarious Patriot on Twitter, but I’m not sure how he fits into the long term plan.
20. Though the odds are slim, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Chad Ochocinco reduces his salary and returns. 
21. But Brandon Lloyd is proven in the system so he’s probably the better choice.  I just don’t know if everything can come together for them to sign him. Regardless the Patriots need an X receiver and that should be the biggest offensive priority this off-season. 
22. Randy Moss isn’t coming back. Love what he did in his time here, but they’ve turned the page and as much as he might be able to run down the field pretty fast still, he’s a one trick pony at this point and one trick ponies don’t have a home in Foxboro.
23. I’d be surprised if they don’t re-sign the Law Firm. He might not be flashy but he’s reliable. Shane Vereen is a real wild card. I think a lot of people are forgetting how much speed and skill he has.
24. Deion Branch comes back on a 2-year, low cost deal. Good insurance and leadership ala Kevin Faulk this year and Troy Brown in 2006/2007. But I expect the Pats to make every effort to replace him on the depth chart.
25. Praying they’re able to lock Welker up with a three year deal. An off-season without a contentious negotiation would be fabulous.