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Patriots NFL Betting Odds for 2015 by mybookie.ag

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It should probably be no surprise that the Patriots are one of the teams with best NFL betting odds for 2015. After all, they’ve been to four-straight AFC championship games, and two of the last four Super Bowls.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s unprecedented run of success should continue in 2015, but there are a number of questions that will determine if they can get to Super Bowl 50 in San Francisco.

Here are three big ones…

1. Can they solidify the interior of their offensive line?

The Pats offensive line was a weakness for much of the early part of 2014, before settling down once Bryan Stork got healthy at center and Ryan Wendell solidified the right guard spot. However, starting left guard Dan Connolly remains a free agent, and Wendell was thought to be a stop gap on the other side. Re-signing Connolly or bringing in free agent Stephen Wisniewski remain an option, but if both are lost could the Pats be relying on rookies or unproven players to protect Tom Brady? That could be scary.

2. How badly will the defense regress without Revis, Browner and Wilfork?

There’s little question, the Patriots defense is less talented on paper in 2015 than they were in 2014. Their key chess piece up front in Wilfork is gone, while the departure of Revis and Browner could leave the Pats more reliant on zone defense than man. Even when the Pats’ defense was horrible in 2010 they still put up the best record in the NFL. That won’t make them Super Bowl favorites this year, but a young and highly-drafted front seven must take big steps forward to offset significant losses.

3. Who will step up in the backfield?

Both “starting” running backs departed this offseason, with Stevan Ridley headed to the Jets and Shane Vereen going to the Giants. The Pats signed promising receiving back Travaris Cadet to help fill the hole left by Vereen, while second-year player James White should compete for significant snaps as well. 

But the early down running back role is the one with the biggest questions. LeGarrette Blount is back, but seems to excel when he can be the late-game hammer rather than the early game establisher. Second-year player Tyler Gaffney missed his rookie season with an injury and could turn some heads, while Jonas Gray didn’t seem many carries last year after running all over the Colts then oversleeping and missing a meeting the following week. Brandon Bolden is more of a special teamer, but has enough experience to contribute in the backfield.

Could the Pats add a new dynamic runner in the draft higher than anyone thinks they will? They’re always full of surprises, but there is enough depth at this point to potentially let competition determine who will be the key cogs at running back.

Pats Posits on Preseason Schedule

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Today is the day of the most anticlimactic news of the offseason – the release of the preseason opponents. Not the dates or the times, just whose mostly scrubs will play whose mostly scrubs this summer.

Of course this pales in comparison to the real schedule that will be out in a couple weeks and the Pats opening night opponent which could come as soon as next week, but for now we’ll take it.

The things I look for in preseason games are a variety of challenges. Different types of offenses and defenses that will give our team some experience facing schematic departures from what they’ll be seeing when practicing against themselves.

Opening with Green Bay is a nice way to kick things off, especially since they’re a well-coached and established team with an excellent quarterback. That will help as we cycle in the new cornerbacks.

Traveling to New Orleans in Week 2 also provides a top quarterback/coach tandem to go against, but also some experience in a dome. Also Rob Ryan’s defense should provide some good challenges for an offensive line that could very well have some new faces.

Week 3 is usually when we see the most of the starters and going against Carolina on the road will be a great tuneup for Tom Brady and the offense. Cam Newton certainly will present some unique mobile quarterback challenges for the defense as well, something they’ll value after facing two pocket QBs the first two weeks.

Finally, we wrap up with the Giants, per usual. This game is usually a scrub fest so it’s hard to take much out of it other than getting to see Eli Manning’s dumb mug sitting on the sideline in a hat.

Guest Post: Patriots Big Board from Cody LaChance

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I dropped my Top-50 Patriots big board earlier this week and now here’s a chance for contributor Cody LaChance (@HailtotheHoodie) to pick his 50 guys. 

1.) Malcom Brown* – DT – Texas – Wasn’t going to have him on the list, but Matt Patricia attending Texas’s Pro Day just makes this too enticing. Could be an immediate fill for the hole left by Wilfork. Could become anchor of DL for years to come.

2.) Cameron Erving* – C/G – FSU – Since Stork played so well in his first season, have to think Patriots will be interested in going back to the FSU OL well. Erving could be an instant starter at G, and interior OL is now a must more than ever with Suh going to Miami.

3.) Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest – Johnson is not a flashy athletic phenom, but is reportedly one of the most “pro-ready” CBs in this year’s draft. The Patriots could definitely use a player of that caliber and could be a good value pick in round two.

4.) Byron Jones* – CB – UConn – Belichick loves athletic players and has turned another ex-combine star into an NFL stud in Jamie Collins. Jones is extremely raw in technique and would need time to learn the Patriots system before being thrust into it.

5.) Jordan Phillips* – DT- Oklahoma – Jordan Phillips has a massive frame measuring in at 6’5" and 329 pounds which could help fill the equally sized hole left by Vince Wilfork. Phillips could have great value in the second round as an instant starter for the Patriots in 2015.

6.) Owamagbe Odighizuwa* – DE – UCLA – Besides having the coolest name in this draft class, Owa is a phenomenal edge rushing talent who should thrive off his great combine numbers. His mix of size, speed, and athleticism would be a great addition to the Patriots as DE could be an area to add depth with Chandler Jones reaching the end of his contract next season.

7.) Ronald Darby- CB – FSU – Belichick might want to expand on his FSU well and go with Darby for a CB who could come in and produce in year one. With protoypical size at the position, he could instantly help fill the whole left by Revis.

8.) Arik Armstead – DT – Oregon – Brother of ex-Patriot Armon Armstead, Arik is a talented DL with a massive frame (6’8" 280 lbs). While he was prone of going invisible in college, his potential is there as a unique mixture of size and skill. With the right coaching, could become a phenomenal DL in the NFL.

9.) AJ Cann* – G – South Carolina – Cann fits all the intangibles that the Patriots love. Solid player and a leader. There are concerns if he has the versatility in blocking to thrive in NE scheme, but still could be an instant plug and play guy.

10.) Jalen Collins – CB – LSU – I really dislike having to put CB near the top of the list for draft needs, but that’s where the Patriots are at. Collins is a raw prospect, but has the athletic traits of a future star CB in the league. Sounds like another Collins the Patriots have drafted in recent drafts…

11.) Jake Fisher – T – Oregon – Although Fisher projects to be a tackle, he could be transitioned to playing guard due to his high football IQ and great hand placement. Belichick loves versatitlity, and having an offensive linemen that could play multiple positions is always a plus.

12.) Eli Harold – LB – Virginia – Harold could be a potential Jamie Collins 2.0 as he is an extremely athletic edge rusher. Might fit a 3-4 better than a 4-3, but is athletic enough to make an impact in any scheme.

13.) Laken Tomlinson – G – Duke – See a trend with interior OL here? Tomlinson has had talks with New England and could be available at the end of the first or second round.

14.) Ali Marpet- G- Hobart – Leave it to Belichick and the Patriots to draft Marpet. The overachiever from Division III school Hobart would continue Belichick’s tradition of drafting head scratchers early on. He does fill a position of need which only adds to the Patriots potentially drafting him.

15.) Carl Davis – DT – Iowa – Another big DT that could help replace Wilfork. Needs to work on being more consistent, but talent is there.

16.) Ameer Abdullah – RB – Nebraska – While Abdullah has some fumble issues, he looks like one of the most explosive RBs in this draft class. He is an all-purpose back that can play on all three downs.

17.) Danielle Hunter* – DE – LSU – Hunter has the size, speed, and length that Nick Caserio loves in one of his latest interviews this offseason. Has measureables similar to Chandler Jones (6’6" 240 pounds) but a 4.57 40 time shows he has the speed to get to the QB. A combo of him, Chandler, and Easley could be a VERY scary pass rushing trio.

18.) Eddie Goldman – DT – FSU – A prototypical run-stopping 3-4 NT. Not going to get a lot of pass rush from him, but could instantly fill in for Vince as team’s primary run stuffer. If available in round two, would be a great pick.

19.) Preston Smith – DE – Mississippi St. – Smith is another edge rusher in this strong edge rusher class that could interest the Patriots. He has similar size to Chandler Jones, and could add some more pass rushing depth to the front seven instantly.

20.) Marcus Peters – CB – Washington – Peters looks like an Aqib Talib 2.0. Plenty of off-field issues, but could potentially be a phenomenal NFL CB. Even if Patriots don’t draft him, could see Peters ending up in NE during his career at some point.

21.) Phillip Dorsett* – WR – Miami(Fl) – One of the fastest WR available in the 2015 draft, he had the fastest 40 time in the group at a blazing 4.33. He could instantly add a level of explosiveness to the Patriots offense, but is not the most consistent receiver. Would be a steal in the third round.

22.) Duke Johnson – RB – Miami (Fl) –  Johnson could be a great replacement for Vereen as he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Has phenomenal moves and can break off a big play anytime he touches the ball. With Gurley and Gordon potentially going in the first, Johnson is a guy NE could target in the middle rounds.

23.) Sammy Coates – WR – Auburn – Patriots fans want a DEEP THREAT?? Well here he is, fresh off an intense Pro Day private workout with Belichick. Coates is a burner who can stretch the field. Would provide competition with Dobson and Tyms in camp.

24.) Tre’ Jackson – G – FSU – Another day, another FSU interior lineman. With Scar having great contact with FSU’s program, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least for the Patriots to potentially have multiple Seminole linemen on their OL

25.) Quinten Rollins – CB – Miami (OH) – A former basketball player, Rollins has great start and stop speed. There are concerns about his technique, but with some coaching could be a talented NFL corner.

26.) David Cobb – RB – Minnesota – Yeah, I know the last RB the Patriots took from Minnesota still makes fans sick, but Cobb could be a solid addition to RB depth in the later rounds. Could be a Ridley replacement as it’s ironic NFL.com has his NFL comparison to Stevan Ridley.

27.) PJ Williams – CB – FSU – Good size for the CB position. Talented in bump and run coverage and could help replace Revis and Browner in that regard. Not overly impressive against the run.

28.) Grady Jarrett – DT – Clemson – Undersized, but explosive and plays hard until the whistle. Might be too much of a Dominique Easley copy, but has serious potential.

29.) John Miller – G – Louisville – Guard with great hand and arm usage in pass coverage. Can play either guard position and is intelligent and talented enough to be able to switch in game.

30.) Chris Conley* – WR – Georgia – I know the Patriots recent history (failures) in drafting WR, but Conley is a type of guy who could add an explosive aspect to the offense. He was made famous from his ridiculous combine, but don’t forget Belichick spent a lot of time with him at Georgia’s pro day.

31.) Max Valles – LB – Virginia – Harold’s pass rushing counterpart at Virginia. Extremely raw, but athleticism leads lots of room for upside as a developmental prospect. Would need time to mature physically and mentally for NFL.

32.) David Andrews – C/G – Georgia – A player Belichick took time to meet with, 2014 Rimington Award Finalist. Could play any spot on NE’s interior OL. Could be the 2015 Draft version of Bryan Stork.

33.) Gabe Wright* – DT – Auburn – Wright is a player that at times was brilliant, and dissapeared in others. Commonly compared with Ra’Shede Hageman from last year’s draft, if Wright can find a way to not dissapear he has the potential to become an inside force. Should be available in the middle rounds.

34.) Jay Ajayi – RB – Boise State – Considered a dark horse at the RB position in this draft. Has loads of potential if put in right scheme. Could become great player in Patriots system.

35.) Stephone Anthony – LB – Clemson – Linebacker depth has plagued the Patriots for the last few seasons, making Anthony an attractive mid-round pick. He has the ideal size for a Patriots LB, and is being prasied for great interviews so far.

36.) Tyler Lockett – WR – Kansas State – Pretty much the later round version of Phillip Dorsett. Great speedy, shifty WR that could add more speed to current WR core.

37.) Jose Matias – G – FSU – Another FSU OL, can’t say enough about these guys. Pro ready from day one. Could be a great mid-round selection.

38.) Shaq Mason* – C/G – Georgia Tech – While Mason was seen giving snaps to Scar, he projects to be a RG in the NFL. He is a little undersized, but is underrated as a powerful run blocker and stout pass blocker.

39.) Tyrell Williams – WR – WOU – A big-bodied WR coming in at 6’4" and 200 pounds who has the ability to be a RZ target as well as a solid run blocker. Williams would be a solid addition to the WR core as potential Brandon LaFell insurance.

40.) Ben Heeney – LB – Kansas – Heeney is a solid linebacker and could provide depth on special teams with the loss of Jonathan Casillas.

41.) Eric Rowe – CB – Utah – Cornerback with ideal height and length. Has issues with man coverage, but would be a good fit in zone schemes.

42.) Cameron Artis-Payne – RB –Auburn – Patient runner who won’t beat many defenders to the edge. Good ball security and stocky frame make him a viable RZ option.

43.) David Johnson – RB – Northern Iowa – Johnson is a big bodied RB who has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. His KR skills give him extra versatility for NE.

44.) Terrence Jones – G – Troy State – Guard with immense strength and power. Could provide solid camp competition for guard positions.

45.) David Parry – DT – Stanford – Parry is a former walk-on player with a BIG chip on his shoulder. While he lacks the ideal size, he has the type of hard-working and nasty attitude that the Patriots love to draft late in the draft. Could add depth to DT rotation.

46.) Marten Ifedi – DE – Memphis – You can never have enough pass rushers, and the Memphis product could be a solid late round addition. Solid size and a staggering 11.5 sacks his junior year could bode well in the Patriots DE rotation.

47.) Damaar Aultman* – WR – Maine – Had to sneak a Maine player in here. After bringing in Derrick Johnson for a look last offseason, they should bring in Aultman. Aultman has the speed and hands to be an NFL WR and is an experienced return specialist.

48.) Tyler Kroft – TE – Rutgers – Keep the Rutgers pipeline open and active! Kroft is another large TE product (6’6" 240lbs) that could turn into a dominant red zone option. The Rutgers connection only helps the chances he’s drafted by the Patriots.

49.) James Crowder – WR – Duke – A small and shifty slot receiver who put up great numbers at Duke. Just the type of receiver to give insurance for Edelman and Amendola.

50.) Joe Cardona – LS – Navy  – How could I do a Patriots Big Board without adding a Navy player. Joe Cardona is actually considered one of the top long snappers in the country, and you just never know with BB’s love for Navy.

2015 PatsPropaganda Patriots Top 50 NFL Draft Board

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Welcome to year five of the PatsPropaganda Patriots-only Top 50 big board! Some important things to note before you start tearing this apart:

  • This is Patriots-only and I’m trying to hit as many of the Pats’ picks as I can. So guys who I think will be gone are not on here. 
  • The value is roughly how much I like them coupled with how much the Pats need them. So if you think someone is ranked too low, it’s likely the Pats don’t have a glaring need as his position or I just don’t love him that much. 
  • This is for fun. I am not a scout and there are plenty other people out there watching far more film than I do. Still, I know what the Pats like and I do okay at this each year (see below). Take from this what you will.
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With that said, the goal as always, is to break 50% of the Pats picks on here. This list is still fluid, so expect some movement. All input is welcome, but we’ve got to stay at 50. Guys with an asterisk are prospects I especially like. Here we go:

  1. Eddie Goldman – DT – Florida State: Good size to eat up blocks and violent hands to hold his ground. Wonder how well he can hold his ground, seems to have the size. Active enough to make an impact on passing downs.
  2. Cameron Erving – G – Florida State: Played all over the line at FSU, with good size and length. Smarts and versatility are obvious. Instant starter at guard, while backing up center and tackle to an extent.
  3. AJ Cann – OG – South Carolina: A popular mock draft pick for the Pats, could be an instant starter at LG. Moves well. Smart, leader, rarely penalized.
  4. *Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut: High character with good size (6′1″). Team captain with good instincts. Top performer in all combine drills. Checks a lot of boxes for Patriots.
  5. Tre’ Jackson – OG – Florida State: Powerful and aggressive, would need to put in the work to get into top shape. Possible instant starter at RG.
  6. Carl Davis – DT – Iowa: Big and powerful with long wing span. Perfect space eater inside for Pats’ scheme, despite his lack of pass rush acumen. Might be the best value DT pick. Quick off ball.
  7. Malcom Brown – DT – Texas: Shorter than Phillips and Goldman, but has good power and athleticism. More of a penetrator but enough size that he could develop holding ground. Rotational moreso than instant starter.
  8. Jordan Phillips – DT – Oklahoma: Superior size and ability inside, with great length. Could be used in a number of roles just don’t love his overall fire and aggressiveness. Size undeniable.
  9. Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke: Developing prospect who turned heads at the Senior Bowl against Danny Shelton. Smart. Might be a RG-only guy and that drops value a bit. Possibly instant starter at RG.
  10. Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest: Best cover corner in class. Lack of physicality a potential question mark. Special teams ability could define his Pats value.
  11. Josue Mattias – OG – Florida State: More technician than mauler but there’s a place for that in New England. Smart and moves well.
  12. Eli Harold – LB – Virginia: Strong at point of attack, probably best served as a stand-up linebacker.  Pass rush potential. Good fit in the Hightower/Collins linebacker role of the last two season. 
  13. Owamagbe Odighizuwa – DE – UCLA: Strong at point of attack, could be immediate core special teamer while developing at an edge position. Best fit is at left edge, with some pass rush potential. 
  14. Danielle Hunter – DE – LSU: Another freakish athlete with ideal size. Maybe a bit light, but could use a year of development. Projects as a right defensive edge.
  15. Jay Ajayi – RB – Boise St.: Good size who can do it all, good speed and explosion.
  16. Ameer Abdullah – RB – Nebraska: Great character, but undersized with some ball security issues. Ball skills, plus KR/PR.
  17. Duke Johnson – RB – Miami: Explosive player who competes and can catch out of the backfield.
  18. Benardrick McKinney – ILB – Miss St.: Big for an ILB in the Pats system, but plays within the defense and makes plays.
  19. Senquez Golson – CB – Mississippi:  Undersized but competitive. Played off-man/zone in college. Aggressive and explosive.
  20. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu – CB – Oregon: Can play inside and outside, also gunner. Instinctive ball skills and aggressive but undersized. Knee injury should drop his draft stock.
  21. *Ladarius Gunter – CB – Miami: Good height (6′1″, 202). Excels in off-man, played safety, vs. tight ends, special teams.*
  22. Shaq Thompson – SS – Washington: Versatile player who is undersized but can do just about anything on a football team. Interesting fit for New England. Not going to play linebacker, but overall passing down and special teams value could move him up the board.
  23. Kenny Bell – WR – Nebraska: Has all the Patriots-desired measurables with good size and explosiveness, especially short-area quickness. Checks a lot of Pats receiver boxes but need might be lower than value.
  24. Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami: Explosive and fast, can play inside or outside.
  25. Jake Fisher – OL – Oregon: Former tight end with excellent athleticism. Might need a bit of time to adjust to NFL game, but could play both tackle spots. He’s ranked too low here, he’ll go long before the Pats would take a tackle.
  26. *Daryl Williams – OT – Oklahoma: Competitive with outstanding work ethic and football IQ. Good power and very tough with long arms. Could be a guard. Interesting projection.
  27. Bobby Richardson – DT – Indiana: Athletic, not a perfect need fit, a little too redundant to Easley/Chris Jones. But makes plays and plays hard. Captain. 
  28. Tyeler Davison – DT – Fresno St.: Stout with long arms and very strong. Might be too much of a two-gapper, but has what it takes to win in trenches.
  29. Joey Mbu – DT – Houston: Great character and football IQ. Okay size, but very good length. More of a projection, but fits the mold by playing hard.
  30. *Justin Coleman – CB – Tennessee: Aggressive and comfortable in man but has awareness for zone with good ball skills. Top performer in 3-cone. Special teamer.
  31. Steven Nelson – CB – Oregon St.: Average size (5′10″) but good arm length. Competitive, physical, aggressive, fearless. Has closing burst for zone.
  32. Bobby McCain – CB – Memphis: Outstanding instincts in zone/off-man, played inside and outside and can return kicks. Undersized (5′9″, 195).
  33. Chris Conley – WR – Georgia: Ran a variety of routes but was under-utilized. Great timed speed at combine plus great size make him intriguing.
  34. Mark Glowinski – OG – West Virginia: Strong and tough, moves well in space.
  35. Lorenzo Mauldin – OLB – Louisville: Good edge size but not elite athleticism. Good character across the board, active and productive. Likely an edge projection.
  36. Jordan Hicks – OLB – Texas: Undersized but has all the intangibles. Core special teamer, could potentially play MLB in base.
  37. Obum Gwachum – DE –  Oregon St.: Freakish athlete who is still learning to play defensive end.
  38. Martin Ifedi – DE – Memphis: Lunchpail toughness and strength in the mold of Rob Ninkovich as a developmental LDE. Similar to Zach Moore.
  39. Max Valles – OLB – Virginia: Solid OLB size who should add weight. Raw prospect, who at worst could end up a defensive end. Good playing demeanor.
  40. Jeff Heuerman – TE – Ohio State: Dealt with foot injury that dropped status, but intriguing move tight end prospect with versatility. Captain.
  41. AJ Derby – TE – Arkansas: Big, physical and fast, he played QB and LB before moving to TE. Natural catcher, can be moved all around field.
  42. John Crockett – RB – North Dakota St.: Tenacious, hard runner who can do it all with good size. Small school but a fun project. “Taz”
  43. Tre McBride – WR William & Mary: Tough enough to make plays in the middle of the field. Will need to improve route running and ability to get open at the NFL level.
  44. Clayton Geathers – SS – Central Florida: Good size at the SS spot and an aggressive hitter. Might need time to develop, but has the size we’re looking for at SS to handle TEs. 
  45. Rob Crisp – OT – NC State: Tough and high-effort, with good feet and length.
  46. Tyler Croft – TE – Rutgers: Rutgers alert! Blocks hard, and a good athlete. Would need time to develop.
  47. David Johnson – RB – Northern Iowa:  Has the frame and all the measurables. Lacks the hard runninng though?
  48. Jaquiski Tartt – SS – Samford: Tore it up at a small school, has the desired physicality and playing style. Competitive.
  49. Ibrahaim Campbell – SS – Northwestern: Great leadership traits, but special teamer/ in-the-box safety type with average size. Smart. Tavon Wilson.
  50. Zach Zenner – RB – South Dakota St.: Small school, but has all the one-cut traits. Willing blocker.