new england patriots

And just like that Patriots football is back tomorrow. Of course the Boston media will enjoy overanalyzing every play of the preseason as if it’s some sort of predictor of how things will shake out in the regular season. Anyone who remembers the 0-4 2008 preseason knows how that goes. No one in a million years would’ve thought we’d win 11 games with Matt Cassel after that preseason.

For a game plan specific team like the Pats you really can’t read too much of anything into preseason performance. I’d call the schemes and plays the Pats will run “vanilla” but I like vanilla ice cream too much. The Pats aren’t going to tip their hand to anything they plan to do in the regular season, but they will want to be strong in their fundamentals and base plays.

So here’s what I’ll be watching tomorrow night.

1. Defensive Scheme: you can bet this is one area that will be beaten to death after this game. While the Pats will try to keep as much of their planned defensive tweaks close to the vest they will need players to get experience running a new front. I expect to see some of this 4-3 front we’ve been hearing about, but I also expect it to be as basic as they can make it. This is probably good for us as it will be a bare bones view of what changes are coming. We should also see a lot of basic nickel and dime packages running simple man and zone coverages. Players who are exposed when things are this straight forward can hardly be counted on when complicated game plans are installed.

2. Rookies:As expected it’s been a rough training camp for rookies. Both Ras-I Dowling and  Shane Vereen haven’t been seen on the field since their first and second practices respectively. But there are a handful of rookies left that I am excited to see in game conditions. They are:

• Stevan Ridley: Ridley has been one of the most consistent Pats at practice, hasn’t missed any time, and has impressed with his receiving skills. He should get a lot of carries.
• Lee Smith: Smith has also been a bright spot of camp so far. It’s hard to say definitively if he made Alge Crumpler expendable, but Smith has shown better than expected receiving skills, and as-advertised blocking skills.
• Nate Solder: I think they’re going to throw Solder right in the fire to see how he does. Can’t wait to see how the big fella looks out there.
• Ryan Mallett: Mallett has a ways to go, but I’m most interested to see his rifle arm in live NFL action. Expect him to rocket a short pass or two that drill his intended receivers in the chest.

3. Development of 2nd/3rd year players: The key to the Patriots Super Bowl hopes will depend largely on the development of many 2nd and 3rd year players. The guys I’ll have my eyes on the most:

• Butler vs. Wilhite: In nearly every 53-man roster prediction it comes down to one or the other. Based on what I saw last year I lean Wilhite though Butler still has a lot of fans for his high ceiling. It will be interested to see how they’re being used.
• Patrick Chung: As anyone who reads this blog knows I loves me some Patchung!. After a full year  as a starter I expect to see even more out of Chung this year, hopefully he’ll emerge as a real leader of the secondary.
• Brandon Tate vs. Taylor Price: I think Tate’s spot is safe for what he brings on kickoff returns but it sounds like Price has had a great camp. If the Pats like someone else as a kickoff returner and Price outperforms Tate as a WR could it make Tate expendable?

4. Brady/Ochocinco Chemistry: It’s still early and I’d prefer to keep how they truly plan to use Chad a secret like they did with Moss in 2007 (thanks to a hamstring tweak for Moss), but it will be interesting to see how this relationship is developing. I’ll tell you what, one dropped easy catch and the Boston media will be all over Chad like white on rice.

5. Gostkowski: You can’t understate the effect that losing Gostkowski’s kick off distance had on field position last year. It sounds like he’s completely healthy, but seeing a booming kickoff that goes deep into the end zone would be a nice reassurance that The Ghost is back.

Players I’m disappointed we probably won’t see:

• Brandon Deaderick – picking up where he left off last year, and that’s not a good thing. Needs to get back asap if he wants to keep his job.
• Albert Haynesworth – not too worried about him… yet. I’m just excited to see him and Wilfork dominating together. Patience…
• Ron Brace – Could be in real danger of getting cut if he doesn’t get out there soon.
• Ras-I Dowling – Still don’t know how the Pats plan to use him.
• Josh Barrett – Pats were using him as a Safety/Linebacker hybrid.