new england patriots

Even though I’m just a fan blogger I try to align my feelings and expectations with the philosophy that BB preaches. The goal is to win the Super Bowl.

I don’t care where the Patriots are ranked in anyone’s power rankings. I don’t really care about where they rank statistically. And I definitely don’t care what Tom Brady’s hair looks like.

What I care about is making the playoffs, preferably by winning the division, then peaking in the January and playing our best football when it’s all on the line.

All year long NFL fans see and hear the pundits go back and forth on their teams depending on how they did last Sunday.

Disappointing performance? They can be beat. Dominating performance? Book your tickets for the Super Bowl. 

I don’t ride that roller coaster.

So today when you’re hearing about the Packers have exposed the Patriots defense ignore it. The Patriots defense has been pretty much been what it’s been all season long. Teams can pass on them, and occasionally run on their subpackages, but they’re a “ballhawking” defense.

So if you were surprised by what you saw last night you must’ve just started following the Patriots after they beat the Bears and everyone started pronouncing them ‘unbeatable’.

Anyway, let’s look at the Patriots rationally and figure out what has to be done if this team is going to win their fourth Super Bowl this year.

KEY NUMBER ONE: GET HEALTHY

The lengthy absences of Mike Wright and Myron Pryor have been tough to overcome. They are the Pats primary interior rushers, and while newcomer Eric Moore has been generating some pressure off the edge he will be even more effective when offensive lines have to deal with the speed/strength that Pryor and Wright bring up the middle.

Alot of the problems yesterday were because Matt Flynn could step up into the pocket despite pressure coming off the edges. The Pats are now being forced to use Kyle Love, Vince Wilfork and Gerard Warren in nickel packages when their strengths are really more holding their ground, not getting upfield like Wright and Pryor can do. Their return is of the utmost importance, also because as veterans they are better against subpackage runs as well.

KEY NUMBER TWO: OFFENSE MUST CONTINUE TO CLICK

The numbers didn’t look overwhelming for the offense against the Green Bay but when you consider they put up 24 points in just 19 minutes of possession it looks a little better. They were a little flat yesterday, which is often the case when teams face a non-divisional opponent at the end of the season in a game that is not must-win.

Of all the things I think we can count on the offense putting up points is number one. But when you have a defense that struggles getting off the field you don’t have a lot of room for error. A huge part of this is to continue not turning the ball over.

KEY NUMBER THREE: KEEP GETTING INTS AND GET OFF THE FIELD ON 3RD DOWN

Take away the turnovers and this defense is as bad as the statistics say it is. Depending on turnovers is a recipe for disaster, that is why the Pats must put together a three game stretch in the playoffs where they only give up 40% of their third downs. That’s about average, but far better than the 50% they’re averaging this season. Here are their third down numbers this season, but they break down like this:

• Elite (sub-35%): 2 games (vs. Ravens, vs. Jets)
• Solid (36% – 45%): 3 games (Vikings, @ Steelers, @ Bears)
• Poor (over 45%): 9 (everyone else)

It’s no accident that whenever the Pats are better than 45% on third down they win.

I like the Patriots chances if they can get Pryor and Wright back, as well as having Brandon Spikes return. But the play of the defense, especially on third down, will be where the Patriots Super Bowl hopes live or die.