PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

oakland raiders

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They said it couldn’t be done.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/they-said-it-couldnt-be-done/

Monday morning Patriots hangover

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Welcome to another “yeah we won the game but we can never win a Super Bowl with this defense” Monday. Well, I probably don’t have to welcome you to it. By now that’s all you’ve been hearing and reading.

Here are some quick hit thoughts after re-watching yesterday’s game.

– Obviously we’ll have plenty on the defense this week, but my general words of advice to Patriots Nation is: Patience. It’s week four. We need to get healthy. We’re along ways away from having to roll this defense out against the Packers in the Super Bowl.

– But I would take the Patriots offense with their defense over the Ravens offense with their defense as more probable to win a Super Bowl. This is a quarterback league. You can have the best defense in the NFL statistically but the elite quarterbacks are still just as likely to shred it.

– Call me crazy but I think that the loss of Mayo for a bit could be a good thing. Let’s face it, it would be hard for them to be much worse statistically, and as much as I’m not a huge Gary Guyton fan the Pats are in far better position to get by with him, Spikes, Fletcher and even Tracy White than they were last time they lost Mayo in 2009. Other guys need to start stepping up and making plays, and this will be a chance for them to do so. Especially excited to see more of Fletcher and Spikes.

– It’s good news that Mayo should be back by mid-November but the worry is that he’ll have lost that elite speed like he did with the 2009 MCL injury.

– The Mayo injury itself was comical. It really almost looked like he was faking it at first. The play ended and he just suddenly looked down and realized “hey my knee hurts”.

– Spikes has his weaknesses but I absolutely love the energy he brings to the defense. It’s that kind of excitement and leadership that can really make a difference on this usually subdued defense. Between him and Patchung they are becoming the heart of this defense. And let’s remember… year two and year three respectively.

– The biggest problem I see with the pass defense right now is the lack on interior rushers. With Mike Wright still out they don’t have a true interior pass rusher on the active roster. You cannot understate the effect of losing Wright and Pryor has had on the Pats the last two seasons. You can have the greatest edge rusher in the world but if the quarterback can just step up into the pocket it won’t matter. If Wright can’t come back they’re going to need Haynesworth to contribute there eventually.Either way something has to be done there.

– Wish I had gotten to watch more of the Jets-Ravens game last night for obvious reasons. Of course everyone is pretty much already resigned to the fact that the Patriots defense will be just what Mark Sanchez needs to bounce back. I hope this angle continues to be played up so word gets back to the Patriots locker room.

– For me it comes down to Nick Mangold. If he’s back it should be a game. If he’s not the Jets will continue have problems with the offensive like calls, running the football and protecting Sanchez. Not to say that he’ll cure all that ails them, but it would be a huge step in the right direction.

– Revis on Welker makes sense. But that leaves Strickland and Cromartie to cover Branch, Ochocinco, maybe even Hernandez (fingers crossed). It should be fascinating to see how the Patriots attack the Jets given what they learned in the playoff game. Having Hernandez back could really tip the scales toward the Patriots as the Jets have struggled to match up with tight ends.

– Anyone want to do a little side by side comparison of what Richard Seymour and Nate Solder did yesterday?

Thoughts on the Patriots game plan today

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The Patriots have been primarily in sub-package defense for the first three games (166 of 213 snaps, 78%) but I expect that to change today. The question is whether or not they’ll go into their 4-3 defense that we saw a lot of in preseason, or back to their traditional 3-4 defense that we actually have not seen them use since last season.

I believe it’s most likely they’ll use the 4-3 with an Ellis-Wilfork-Warren-Carter front, and Ninkovich-Spikes-Mayo at linebacker. Obviously McFadden is dangerous every time he touches the ball, so I believe the Patriots plan will focus heavily on Ninkovich and Carter and their ability to set the edge and keep McFadden inside. I am not flush with confidence that they will be able to do it for a full 60 minutes, but I do think the Patriots run defense is somewhat underrated as a lot of the yards on the ground they’ve given up have been in sub packages while trying to preserve a lead.

On the back end I expect the Raiders to take some shots down the field and they should. If Patrick Chung returns it should help the communication in the secondary. The pressure will be on Devin McCourty who has started his sophomore season in a slump and Kyle Arrington who will return to the starting outside corner position after playing there for most of 2010. It’s very possible this is the weekend McCourty starts to return to form. But I still expect the Raiders to challenge him, especially with the deep ball.

On the offensive side of the ball the Pats will feature a lot of spread formations, and it will be imperative for the offensive line to give Brady time. The Raiders front four are capable of getting pressure all on their own and that has caused the Pats problems in the past when the protection isn’t holding up (see Super Bowl 42).  If the protection is okay I believe the Raiders will have three players they really need to focus on: Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Danny Woodhead.

Since the Raiders are primarily a man to man team, a “what you see is what you get” philosophy it’s pretty much a given that Brady will torch them as long as he has time. I don’t expect the Raiders to try to confuse him with multiple looks and that will be their downfall. Given the what the Jets were able to do with Dustin Keller I expect the Pats to try similar things with Gronkowski, especially down the seam. 

Welker has been on fire and should probably draw the most attention, perhaps the Raiders will employ a similar “spy” technique like the Saints did a couple years ago, by having a second cover man who shadows and blasts him as soon as he catches it. Woodhead is one of the most interesting weapons to me in this game, especially if they can get him in space. Curious who the Raiders put on him, because it doesn’t appear they have a linebacker who can even come close to covering him.

Final Prediction: Pats 38-17