patriots

Nice breakdown with a lot of mention of Football Outsiders’ metrics, which you’ll find a lot here as well.

The Texans defense and running game should keep things close, but as Phillips noted, the Patriots have too many weapons on offense to keep in check. Between Gronkowski and Hernandez, Welker and Lloyd, and the Patriots’ up-tempo, no-huddle approach, Sunday’s game could be the one where the Texans really feel the losses of inside linebackers Brian Cushing, Tim Dobbins and Daryl Sharpton, as well as nickel corner Brice McCain, to injury. Another X-factor could come on special teams, an area of the game where New England ranked fourth and Houston ranked dead last, according to Football Outsiders.

Beating a dead horse with this yet?

This is the first time the Patriots have had their top four receivers healthy at the same time since the opening week of the season, and since the Patriots were committed to leaving Wes Welker on the bench back then, it’s really the first time all four guys have been featured all year. With the Texans giving significant reps to the likes of Brandon Harris and Shiloh Keo in the secondary last week, expect the Patriots to try to pick off weak matchups at the line of scrimmage before creating easy throwing lanes for Tom Brady.

Good stuff here with great all-22 screen shots and I agree with this 100X about Woodhead:

Part of what makes the Patriots so dangerous is, with Tom Brady’s magic at the line of scrimmage and a fast tempo of play, they can gouge defenses with the same concepts again and again -– especially on the ground. Stevan Ridley has given them a very productive run game, but the Patriots are arguably more dangerous with Danny Woodhead in the backfield. Not only is the fifth-year pro a terrific space-oriented runner, he’s a very dangerous receiver when split outside or coming from the backfield. No matter what package the Texans are in, the Patriots will find ways to create favorable one-on-one receiving situations for Woodhead.

We also talked a lot about this on the podcast:

Instead of focusing so much on the run, look for Houston to attack New England’s linebackers in coverage with an array of underneath crossing patterns and screens. This week, the play-action element will be more about setting up proper angles for east-and-west misdirection than it will be about getting linebackers and safeties to bite against the run. That’s because the Patriots will likely be in man coverage, which means eyes will be on receiving targets and not the backfield.

This is what it’s all about…

The Texans’ most glaring defensive weakness is inside linebacker play. The Bengals made a fruitless attempt to attack coverage-liability ILBs Barrett Ruud and Bradie James by targeting Jermaine Gresham on seven pass plays. Gresham, vastly inferior to Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, generated a pathetic seven yards on those seven targets, dropping three balls. The Pats likely took note of the Bengals’ mishaps in their game-plan preparation, and where they occurred on the field. Hernandez, Gronkowski, and slot receiver Wes Welker can make good on the opportunities Gresham and Andy Dalton missed. … Brady shredded Houston for four touchdowns, no picks, and 296 yards on 35 throws (8.46 YPA) in the aforementioned Week 14 beatdown. Texans slot cornerback Brandon Harris was Brady’s primary whipping boy.

Some interesting games next year for sure, especially on the road where the Pats will travel to four playoff teams (Falcons, Texans, Ravens, Bengals).

The Broncos will be the only team with a winning record that the Pats face at home but the Steelers and Saints should be good games as well.