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What Will 2018 Pats Unveil Sunday?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-q7OC4su4Y

With the roster set and the first week of the regular season upon us, it’s time to find out who the 2018 Patriots are. Or at least get the first chapter of what will be a long book, with ups and downs. But this one counts and that means it’s time to see how the team has evolved for the new season.

Some pieces are obvious. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and James White will make the offense go. Dont’a Hightower and Stephon Gilmore will be the playmakers for the defense. But who else will need to chip in? What are the options and what will they ride on both sides of the ball?

Let’s break out the crystal football and predict what we’re going to see from the Pats on Sunday.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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Patriots Free Agency Reset, Visits Rundown

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After re-signing Rex Burkhead and acquiring Jason McCourty via trade, the Patriots have picked up the pace of their free agency period the last two days, and with a number of visits reported there should be plenty more moves to come.

Once again there’s been plenty of outrage about the lack of big-name signings, which has left me wondering why people are far more enamored with an aging star over a promising player who never blossomed. The latter is always cheaper and come with far more upside. If anything the annoying part about them is they come to New England, resurrect their career and then move on to a bigger contract elsewhere. Guys like Akiem Hicks, Aqib Talib, even Brandon Browner are just a few that jump to mind in that regard.

The old stars get everyone excited because your mind immediately imagines them at the peak of their careers as if that is the player the Patriots are getting. Sometimes the Patriots do get one of those guys on a cheaper deal because they “want to win”, but most of the time they’re getting paid for past performance, not what they’re still capable of and that’s why the Pats avoid them.

Anyway, here’s a quick rundown of reported visits that the Patriots have scheduled and my thoughts on them. I try not to get too excited or invested when reports of interest or even visits are reported. Sometimes it’s smoke from the agents. Sometimes they can’t even pass a physical. Other times they leave and sign elsewhere. The point is, don’t get invested until they sign.

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Burkhead Back for Three Years

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Outside of Nate Solder going to the Giants and becoming the highest paid tackle in the game, free agency has unfolded as I pretty much expected, and that includes the Patriots latest move of locking up Rex Burkhead for three more seasons.


Burkhead certainly flashed a handful of times in 2017, his first with the Pats, but injuries derailed him every time. He still managed to finish with career highs in touchdowns (8 — 5 rushing, 3 receiving) and receptions (30), despite only appearing in 10 games and playing a total of 196 offensive snaps. He also blocked a punt against the Broncos to go with a touchdown.

His best stretch of the season came from weeks 9-12, where he had 40 attempts for 180 yards and three touchdowns to go with 12 catches and two receiving touchdowns. If that’s the Burkhead we get for the next three seasons, look out.

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Pregame Meal: Make The Teal Squeal

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It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.

But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.

And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.

The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.

But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.

All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?

Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.

Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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Pats Posits: Beating the Dead Horses

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Given the Patriots long history of weird games in Denver I fully expected Sunday night to be a close, weird game despite the Broncos stinking. Thankfully I was dead wrong as the Pats blasted Denver 41-16 in the kind of feel good explosion they seemed to be missing this season. To this point last night’s game has to be the signature win of the 2017 season, with the Pats breaking 40 points for the first time.

The Pats are 7-2 and once again, everything appears on track for another Belichick-Brady Super Bowl run.

Make no mistake, special teams led the way in this one. A blocked punt, a recovered muff, a kick off return for touchdown and a perfect Stephen Gostkowski (2/2 FG, 5/5 XP) gave the Pats the early advantage and they never looked back. After two weeks of talking red zone problems, the offense scored four touchdowns on six trips inside the 20.

Overall the balance of the offense was on full display, with the versatility of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead giving Denver’s defense problems all night long. This has been what we’ve been waiting for. The Pats were successful on early downs and never had to rely on the deep passing game until they had Denver on their heels. Then, in the second half, Brady took to the air to knock Denver out for good.

Defensively, it was Bend-Don’t-Break at it’s finest, led by what I thought was the biggest key to the game — stopping the run. The Pats didn’t have a sack, but got off the field when they needed to, only allowing one touchdown in three Bronco red zone trips. They executed the gameplan in a quiet, unspectacular fashion and that’s just what you need to do to beat a team like the Broncos in Denver.

This is the kind of team win that should leave us feeling pretty good about this Patriots team despite the litany of injuries that have befell them this season. They aren’t without weakness, but when games unfold like Sunday night’s did they look near unbeatable.

More on all of it in this Posits…

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