Breaking Down Tom Brady’s Conference Championship Struggles

The conference championship is the best football game of the year. It lacks the exhibition feel of the Super Bowl, is often out in miserable elements and feels as close to “real” football as we can get these days. Yet somehow it hasn’t always been Tom Brady’s best game.

The Patriots have played in 10 AFC Championship games since 2001 and will set a record with their sixth-straight on Sunday. They won six of those 10, but have lost three of their last four. Tom Brady‘s had his share of struggles, which is of course somewhat understandable since you’re usually playing the best team in your conference, and often one that is familiar with you.

Here’s the breakdown of Brady’s stats in the AFC Championship.

Brady’s career completion percentage is 63.8 percent, which drops to 61.3 percent in the AFC Championship. His career QB rating is 97.2, which drops off a cliff to 80.7 in the AFC Championship.

But again, each game is unique, so let’s take a quick look at why Brady could be due for a bounceback this Sunday.

First, let’s throw out two injury disclaimers — first in 2001 when Brady left the game in Pittsburgh for Drew Bledsoe to finish it, and 2007 when Brady suffered an ankle injury during the game that affected his performance. Those games need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Four of the last five AFC Championships were against arguably the best defenses in the league and twice those teams the Patriots lost to went on to win the Super Bowl. Those were veteran defenses built with beating Brady in mind. But the biggest takeaway from those games, especially in 2012, 2013 and 2015 was the lack of help around Brady.

The Patriots were especially one-dimensional in those three games, putting more pressure on Brady, resulting in 148 passing attempts.

Yes, Brady easily leaned on the running game in 2014 to get to the Super Bowl, making the throws he had to make and finishing with a passer rating over 100 for just the second time in the conference championship. The other came a decade earlier in Pittsburgh with his third-best playoff career passer rating of 130.5.

The key in those games was the running game — namely Corey Dillon and LeGarrette Blount. In both games, the Patriots ran more than they passed (32/21 in 2004 and 40/35 in 2014) and were able to take the pressure off Brady. The result was easy wins both times.

This year the defining characteristic of the offense was their re-dedication to running ball and now with Dion Lewis peaking and Blount healthy, the Patriots finally seem poised to attack a conference championship opponent with a balanced offense that doesn’t need Brady to throw the ball 50 times.

They never had that option in recent years against the Ravens and Broncos, passing exactly twice as often as they ran it in those four contests (184 passes to 92 runs). Their balance was 36 passes to 31 runs in the one AFCCG of these four that they won in 2011.

The Patriots have the right balance this year and they are not afraid to use it. Let’s not forget how the Pats unleashed Dion Lewis the first time against the Steelers in the 2015 opener to the tune of 15 carries, 69 yards rushing and 4 catches for 51 yards. That was a sign that they liked Lewis against the Steelers defense even before they truly knew what he was capable of.

Getting Lewis and Blount on track early and sticking with them might just be the biggest key to victory on Sunday. They’ll take the pressure of Brady and help him put up another 100-plus passer rating.