Brady: 2022

Tom Brady kinda sorta hinted at calling it a wrap at 45 on Instagram, leaving me to wonder if he did make it five more years what his potential win/stat outlook would be and how the offense (and team) will have to re-built around him once again.

But first, a question and disclaimer. Does 45 mean we get potentially get Brady at 45 for the 2022 season? Or that he’ll call it quits when he turns 45 in August of 2022? Let’s just assume he means four more seasons after this one, meaning in February 2023, after winning his 7th-ish Super Bowl, the GOAT will ride off into the sunset as the SUPER GOAT.

The disclaimer, and it’s a big one, is it only takes one play to change it all in an instant. That’s the reality of the NFL for every player, and no matter how bendy Brady is, no amount of clean eating, foam rolling, and Alex Guerrero rubdowns can save him from everything. There’s also a “rehabbing Brady coming back at 43 after a lost injury season” possibility, which would be another potential dramatic twist.

We don’t have to go down this road any further. It’s the NFL. Injuries happen and Brady has been lucky to have avoided them thus far.

Let’s just assume Brady stays healthy for it all. 90 regular season games. Five more AFC Championships. A final play either way in at least a couple more Super Bowls – 52, 53, 54, 55 or 56. What statistical mountains can Brady, how high can he set the bar? How can they build the team around him to make it happen?

Let’s dive in!

Let’s start with the Super Bowls. Brady already has five championships, more than any other quarterback in NFL history. Getting six and seven would only extend his lead over Joe Montana‘s four. Here’s the rundown:

Records owned by Brady

• Regular season wins by a starting quarterback (196)
• Division titles (15)
• Playoff games started (37)
• Playoff wins (25)
• Playoff touchdown passes (71)
• Playoff passing yards (10,226)
• Super Bowl appearances (8)
• Super Bowl wins (5)
• Super Bowl MVPs (4)
• Super Bowl touchdown passes (18)
• Super Bowl passing yards (2,576)

Padding the lead in these categories, especially wins (not that QB Wins mean anything, right?), seems unfair. I don’t know if we’ll ever see these records fall. Either us or the NFL will be dead before another transcendent coach/quarterback combination happens.

5781 yards behind Manning should be surmountable in a season and a half, maybe less. Brady should always be around 4,000 yards in a 16-game season. He’ll be chasing Brees by the middle of this season. That race could be really close. Brady would need at least a full season on Brees to catch him. Where can Brady 2022 get averaging 4,000-per-season? Over 86,000.

51 touchdowns behind Manning and again in a race with Drew Brees. Brady has averaged 31 touchdowns per season the last five years. That would again put him past Manning around the middle of 2019. But again, how many more will Brees throw? Another race to the end.

How can the Patriots best manage their roster for these next five years and maximize Brady’s chances? Let’s break down those who will be going to war with Brady for the foreseeable future and those that might be moving on.

Building Blocks

• Newly re-signed Joe Cardona, and this year’s first-round rookies Sony Michele and Isaiah Wynn with fifth-year options, are all (potentially) signed through 2022, meaning the team that will surround Brady until the end is already starting to take shape.
• The rest of this year’s rookie class will be signed through 2021, as well as vets Stephon Gilmore and Marcus Cannon. These two most recent draft classes will make up the core of the ride to the end.
• Dont’a Hightower, Duron Harmon and James White headline those locked through 2020. Patrick Chung and Rex Burkhead are two others.

The glaring fact is that pretty much the entire core of the last three Super Bowl runs will be almost completely turned over. Yes, there will be extensions here and there, but the 2022 team will look nothing like the 2014 Super Bowl champs. They’ll barely look like the 2018 Patriots.

The notable names that aren’t on there are Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. After Brady, they are the key players who have caught the most important balls in the most important games. Even with extensions, it’s unlikely both will make it to the end with Brady. Edelman almost certainly won’t still be playing at 36. Even Gronk at 33 might be pushing it.

Regardless of how it ends with Edelman and Gronk, it underlines the need to develop another slot receiver and only reinforces that you can never have too many tight ends. For Brady to have a team around him that can compete for Super Bowl 56, they must find the next Edelman and Gronk.

Can Braxton Berrios do it? We always flirt with these shifty guys every preseason.  I’ve lost track of them all. But that was when Edelman and Danny Amendola were locked atop the depth chart. Now it’s a critical need. I believe Jordan Matthews could be the guy in the slot, but with Berrios locked through 2021, it would bode well if he clicks with Brady early like Edelman did in 2009 as a rookie.

Now of course the golden last questions is the succession plan. The Patriots will be active considering young quarterbacks and will be at the center of every quarterback prospect that enters the draft. They have the draft ammo to trade up if they should choose. That will make the future drafts very exciting.

Next season, any potential draft pick will be on a contract collision course with Brady’s desired expiration season, 2022. Though a first-rounder would have an option for 2023, which would be valuable to the Patriots. Then they wouldn’t have to give a new contract to a quarterback who has never started, ala Garoppolo.

So if we’re assuming peak Brady for five more seasons, the sweet spot for grooming a rookie replacement will start with the 2020 draft. Then every pick will be signed thru 2023 and the Pats can maximize the cap space at the quarterback position as long as possible.

The Brady endgame story will be a fascinating one to watch unfold. Can he sustain health and performance? He’s already broken every meaningful record there is. This is all gravy and that’s why no matter how it ends there will be a gentle calm.

And then we’ll all have to readjust to the post-Brady era.