Trey Flowers or Bust in Free Agency 2019

Maybe this is the wrong time to take a look at the expiring contracts on the Patriots considering we’re coming off such a poor performance, but it’s the bye week and in just a few short months the free agents will be at the forefront of everyone’s mind no matter how the season ends.

The list of pending free agents has one big name at the top — Trey Flowers — and after him, and maybe Josh Gordon, is there anyone we’d be all that upset to see leave? Anyone who would truly hurt the Patriots a couple years down the road if they went elsewhere?

Let’s rundown the pending free agents, roughly ranked in order of importance current impact.

• Trey Flowers
• Josh Gordon (RFA)
• Jonathan Jones (RFA)
• Malcom Brown
• Trent Brown
• Chris Hogan
• Stephen Gostkowski
• Ryan Allen
• Jason McCourty
• LaAdrian Waddle
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• Danny Shelton
• Phillip Dorsett
• Eric Rowe

Gostkowski and Allen would usually garner a ton of attention but at this point, with the Patriots’ kickoff and punt teams having one of their worst years under Belichick it’s not hard to look the other way. Admittedly that’s not on the guys kicking the balls as much as it is an entire unit of bad play but after 13 seasons Gostkowski is rapidly approaching a crossroads just like Adam Vinatieri did way back when.

Trent Brown has had his moments, but what’s he going to cost after a year starting at left tackle? Surely way more than the $2 million he’s getting now. If the Pats threw caution to the wind last year at the vital position who’s to say they won’t again? Especially if they think Isaiah Wynn will be a left tackle. Valuable backup LaAdrian Waddle is a free agent again too one again giving the Pats some choices to make at the position.

Jason McCourty has been really good, though not an every down/four-quarter player at this point and with three rookie cornerbacks on the roster right now J-Mac might have to take a vet minimum contract to stick around. Given his brother’s spot on the team that is a possibility, even if JC Jackson or Keion Crossen is ready to step in as a starting outside corner. Turning things over to a cheaper younger guy at the position is a favorite of Belichick.

I think most of us are done with Eric Rowe, as he ends his season on IR. Danny Shelton has been an average third tackle, one that could be upgraded. Chris Hogan has been the forgotten man on offense thus far which might have the silver lining of keeping other teams from paying him. Dorsett has reverted to the fifth receiver and doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a key piece after getting a ton of reps and attention in training camp. Still, with only Edelman under contract of the starting receivers right now, the Pats must address the position, even if Braxton Berrios is ready to contribute in 2019, which is a major question mark. That leads us to….

Josh Gordon is a restricted free agent and might be the second-most interesting piece of the offseason. Can the Pats tender him low and hope no one takes a chance on him? Do the Pats even want to keep him? Lots of questions there too. Given how they’ve targeted him so far it seems like they just might be ready to lock Gordon up for another season with a significant tender but a long-term investment? Unlikely.

Jonathan Jones is also an RFA, and has been a feisty slot corner who had his spot held while he returned from injury. But with Duke Dawson in the mix, the cupboard wouldn’t be bare if Jones walked.

The remaining two big pieces are Flowers and Brown. Flowers is coming off his worst game since recovering from an early-season injury. In the few weeks prior to Tennessee he was coming on as one of the best defensive ends in the league.

As for Brown, the Patriots refused his fifth-year option and he has done nothing this year to make that look like a mistake. Brown has had some good games here or there, but generally seems like an average interior defender and not one who can dominate in the two-gap scheme the Patriots play inside. He’d likely thrive elsewhere and that’s why I think he’s a slam dunk to leave for greener one-gap pastures.

The conclusion of all this? Trey Flowers can’t be allowed to get away, even if it’s at the expense of every other significant free agent on this list. On a defense that needs young building blocks, he’s pretty much the only one who is a consistent force. No one else is near him as far as talent and playmaking ability, while the rest of the defense is trending down, Flowers continues to trend upward.

Should the rest of the defense be blown up to keep him? Because he sure ain’t gonna be cheap. The last year of Devin McCourty‘s deal will see him with a $13.4 million cap hit. He could be extended or cut. The Pats have an out Dont’a Hightower his deal after this season. Rob Gronkowski could make good on the retirement rumors. Those are some significant pieces.

Again, at this point, Flowers is more vital to the Patriots’ long-term than any of those players who are admittedly legends but all likely with their best days behind them. It’s hard to admit, but it’s true.

All of it is setting up for a Flowers or Bust offseason, and one that is filled with uncertainty if he hits the open market where his price could soar.