The current Patriots storyline that interests me most is if Bill Belichick can pull off a complete turnover of his defense before Tom Brady begins to decline and retires.
In 2009 BB ripped the band aid off by jettisoning Vrabel and Seymour, and seeing Bruschi, Colvin, Seau and Harrison retire.This left him with a new group of free agency cast offs and unproven youngsters.
Over the course of the past two seasons the BB D version 2.0 has slowly been adding key components. The foundation pick was Jerod Mayo in 2008. The most important pieces of the 3-4 defense are the nose tackle and the weak inside linebacker, and with Wilfork and Mayo the Pats have two studs.
Around them are a group of promising young defensive backs and linebackers. The defensive line remains the last spot in the rebuild that has not seen a first round pick added. Many of us thought this was the year that would end, but BB didn’t like Cameron Jordan as much as the YouTube highlights told me he should.
In 2009 the young defense lack cohesion, especially on the back end. The stability McCourty provided in 2010 helped the entire secondary. They were still horrendous on 3rd down, but they were a group of ball hawks with a league-leading 25 interceptions. Despite being oft maligned for pass rush issues as well the Pats were 8th overall in points surrendered. The importance of that stat is often overlooked and really, it’s the only stat that truly matters when judging a defense.
2011 will be the third season since BB blew it up and started again, so what should we expect to see from this group?
First, the return of Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden should really help. Many are severely underrating how much of a force Warren was when he was healthy. If he is finally healthy he will lock down the left defensive end spot and chip in a few sacks.
If Bodden is able to return to his 2009 form that Pats will have two solid starters at outside cornerback for the first time since the early part of last decade (sorry Ellis Hobbs).
Something else that is always underrated is the improved cohesion of the entire defense as the players get more and more familiar with each other. Ty Law said it just last week, the dynasty defense was built in the fires and playoff losses of the late 90’s. It takes time, especially in a defense where communication and football intelligence is so vital.
On the defensive line it starts with keeping Wilfork and Warren healthy, that will then leave the competition for the right defensive end spot as the main focus.
Will Gerard Warren be back? Does Marcus Stroud have anything left in the tank? Can Ron Brace, Kyle Love, or Brandon Deaderick take that next step? Will Myron Pryor and Mike Wright be able to consistently bring the interior pass rush? There are definite questions about what this line’s ceiling is.
At linebacker the Mayo, Guyton, Spikes rotation is the foundation in the middle. Dane Fletcher showed promise in 2010 and could push Guyton as the top coverage LB next to Mayo. On the outside Jermain Cunningham, Rob Ninkovich and Tully Banta-Cain look like the core, with wild card Eric Moore potentially in the mix. Don’t expect rookie Markell Carter to see much time at OLB, if he does it’s reason to be VERY excited.
In the secondary Meriweather, Sanders and Chung look like a solid rotation on the back end, and with McCourty and Bodden locking down the outside the biggest question becomes who emerges from the Wilhite, Butler, Dowling group.
With the versatility of the defensive backs, and Dowling’s size it will likely allow BB to mix and match and play with his collection of first and second round toys all over the field. It’s not a question of “Who wins the nickel/dime defensive back jobs” as much as it is how will the Patriots be able to utilize the strengths of all of them.
I do not rule out any kind of free agency acquisition on the defensive side of the ball. It’s assured that there will be a collection of low priced vets, but I would not be surprised to see a big name added whether it’s in free agency or via trade.
In the chaos that the NFL is undoubtedly about to enter, Belichick will thrive and I expect him to take full advantage if there’s a player he thinks could help the defense.
If there is a major addition it will be along the defensive line or at outside linebacker. There’s a surplus of talented defensive backs and I believe it’s best to give them time to gel. But I also wouldn’t rule out one of them being trade bait, cough Meriweather…
As a whole this defense can’t expect to get the same number of turnovers that they got in 2010. The difference will have to be made up on 3rd down. Both were at extreme ends of the spectrum in 2010, expect both to regress toward the mean in 2011.
But even without any new additions the Patriots have built one of the most talent-laden young defenses in the NFL. There are still pieces that need to be added, but they’ve come a long way since the “old and slow” days of just three seasons ago.
