Things are going to change in 2017 for the Patriots defense. The list of defenders due to hit free agency after this season is long and talented — Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Alan Branch, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Long are some of the high profile names.
Now, the Patriots have the cap space to re-sign who they want. They won’t re-sign all of them, but they have enough in the pipeline to overcome a few departures from that group. Guys like Trey Flowers, Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine and Eric Rowe are some who could potentially take elevated roles in 2017 if guys leave.
But make no mistake, change is coming and what the Patriots have right now on defense is as experienced and talented a group on paper as they’ve had since the mid-2000’s. We knew coming into the season that this defense had the chance to be special. This was supposed to be peak Patriots defense for the second time in Bill Belichick’s reign. That’s what happens when you return everyone except one defensive end, and add even more talented contributors like Long and Valentine.
But what is troubling is similar issues continue to haunt this defense and I can’t help but wonder if they’ll truly reach the level Patriots fan believed them capable of this offseason.
They’re 28th on third down (45.9%). Football Outsiders has them ranked 24th overall in DVOA, 20th against the pass, 18th against the run.
Dont’a Hightower has missed two games with a partially torn meniscus. Jamie Collins alternates between being the best player on the field to looking average. These were similar issues with Chandler Jones, who was held back by injuries, inconsistency and ultimately a bad off-field decision, all of which factored into the Patriots sending him to Arizona.
If this up-and-down play continues is it time to take a long look at Matt Patricia? Everyone was handing him a head coaching job after the Texans win, but I still struggle to see what truly defines a Matt Patricia defense. I see ‘bend-don’t-break’ and a lot of inconsistency out of their best players. They certainly have had their moments and their solid games, but the line between Belichick and Patricia is extremely blurry, far moreso than between Belichick and McDaniels, who seems to have his own signature style and history of innovation. I’d bet you can count the full 60-minute solid performances by the defense under Patricia on one hand since he officially took over as coordinator in 2012.
Now I know the team is coming off a shutout and one of their better performances in recent memory. I know this is a small sample size of three games. I know they usually start slow. But based on what we’ve seen, I still wonder the Texans game was an aberration or if it really could be the norm. Because for good defenses, for Top-10 defenses, it is the norm.
Maybe the Texans game just frustrated me more because it was like “See!? They really can do it!!”
There’s no more excuses now.
This Sunday, here come the Bills with their terrible offense built entirely out of LeSean McCoy‘s running and Tyrod Taylor‘s scrambling and deep shots. This is an offense the Patriots defense should eat for breakfast and still have room left for donuts afterwards.
Will they? I can’t say I’m sure. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are plenty of way more talented and well-rounded offenses coming down the pike.
We all had visions of this being a defense that can dictate, but the first three weeks of the 2016 season have left me still wondering who exactly this defense is.
And while we’ve all debated Collins vs. Hightower vs. everyone else for extensions, from my perspective the only guy who has played his ass off in all of the first three games was Chris Long.
Maybe it’s scheme. Greg Bedard brought this up last week on Felger and Mazz and I think there’s some truth to it. This is always going to be a defense that falls on the conservative side. They’ll give up yards and hope for turnovers and red zone stops.
But if you’re a truly talented defense that shows up every week it shouldn’t come to hanging on for dear life (almost) every week.
We’re not going to learn much this weekend. If the Pats shut the Bills down like they should they simply lived up to expectations. The true tests are coming though. That’s when we’ll know for sure just how hard it will be to keep the core of this defense intact.
Or if just about everyone is expendable, including the coordinator.
Boy, you are a gem. The second article I’m reading from you and again, I couldn’t agree more with on our defense’s inconsistency, Patricia, Collins and Chris Long.
It’s frustrating to see them dominate the Texans’ offense one week and getting completely destroyed by Ryan Tannehill in 30 minutes. And for some reason, when they’re clicking, they’re reeeeaally clicking. When Jamie Collins plays well, he’s a top 5 linebacker in the league. But at least as many times in the past 3 seasons, he really is just an above average guy that could be replaced in the second round of the draft and not worth the $10+ million per year that he’s going to command.
That’s why I think it’s going to be so fascinating to see what Belichick does in the offseason. You have a lot of guys on defense with the talent to be perennial Pro-Bowlers: Collins, Sheard, Hightower and Butler. They’re all probably going to command Pro-Bowl money, but I would be wary of paying any single one of them (I know we’ll have to but I’m still wary). Collins is inconsistent, Hightower is injury-prone and a liability in pass coverage, Butler is a great player that I adore but there’s no way he was a Pro Bowler last year and lastly, we have Sheard who is outstanding but really only had one terrific season so far and who might command a contract in the range of Olivier Vernon.
Who would you pick out of those players you listed above with expiring contracts?
Thank you! Before the season I would’ve said Hightower and Collins were must re-signs. At the moment I’m not so sure. I mean these guys are all very talented, but what’s the point of giving out a ton of huge contracts if you’re just going to keep putting the same bend-don’t-break defense that maybe or maybe not makes the final play to win the games each week? Yes, I’m probably overreacting and there’s plenty of football left to come this year. I still love those guys and want this whole unit to show up every week like they did against the Texans, but I’m getting sick of waiting for consistency.
I love me some Jamie Collins but he has to eliminate mental mistakes. Brady and Butler saved Collins from costing them SB49 with the big plays: Russel scramble at the end of the 1st half and the Lynch Wheel route on the final drive. AFCCG last year how does he get beat so badly by Owen Daniels? Hightower injuries are fustrating. I put Sheard and Butler as the highest priorities. Use the leverage you have over Butler to get a deal that benefits both sides. Maybe you can do that this year with Collins but that ship has probably sailed since he is so close to big payday. I’d love to keep them all but I can see them letting Collins walk for big money and maybe franchising Hightower. I’m still in the camp that so far this year they had one bad half against Miami and will be a defense that dictates and wins games. We’ll see when we play Pitt and Cincy soon enough.
I’m not really worried about Butler yet since he’s an RFA this offseason and the Pats can tender him and keep him. I still have hope like you do. We’ll know a lot more when we hit the bye week. Reserving true judgement until then.
I just don’t think there can be a consistently dominant defense in today’s NFL. Belichick was able to rely on the defense in the early years then once the rules changed and the defense turned over he realized defenses were at an inherent disadvantage and you need a reliable offense and just a solid defense to be successful. I would love to see a defense like the early 2000’s I just don’t think it can happen.
Love your work!
Thanks! It’s a fair argument although Denver is on an epic defensive run (as much as that kills me to write). Guess that has to do with having a near unstoppable edge force in Von Miller and everything just compliments that. The defense is always inconsistent early in the season, but they’ve been on a trajectory of improvement. Won’t learn much this weekend, but I’m really hopeful that once they’re at full power everyone will start feeding off each other and we’ll see more total group efforts like we saw against the Texans.